fundlab/drawdown.py detects the severe equity drawdown scenarios from
the index (IVV) rather than hard-coding them: one worst peak->trough
per calendar year since 2022, min depth 8% (a 10% floor would silently
drop the 2023 rate shock at -9.9% and the 2024 Aug-5 dip at -8.4%).
Detected: 2022 bear mkt (-24.5%), 2023 rate shock (-9.9%), 2024 vol
spike (-8.4%), 2025 tariff crash (-18.8%), 2026 Q1 drawdown (-8.9%).
For each of the 2,384 screened funds it computes that fund's own-NAV
return over each peak->trough window (first print after the peak to
the last print on/before the trough) and ranks the 250 CANDIDATEs by
# scenarios positive.
Key finding: positive in all 5 scenarios = only 7 funds, all
ultra-short/cash (BILS, QCMMRX, PULS, FHCOX, FHMIX, SAFEX, COIAX).
Drawdown resilience at the top tier is a duration property, not alpha.
The interesting tier is 4/5 WITH real 5y alpha: HMEZX merger arb
(+1.5% 2022, +3.1% 2023, t5 +7.1), MERVX, CBHCX market-neutral, SCFZX
securitized credit (t5 +8.4), ENIAX (t5 +10.1), WMNUX (t5 +6.9), RCTIX.
App: Fund Lab "Drawdown resilience" expander (scenario table +
candidate table). Output: fundlab/drawdown_results.json.
Tests: test_drawdown() added (4 checks). 88/32 suites green.
Greg Pomerantz
d0ae2ec348