Commit Graph

5 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
f68b239b9a Factor screen (v2, 35 drivers) + return-driver clusters
factors.py: full OLS of all 2,384 funds on a 35-driver basis
(overinclusive, no portfolio-corr screening - corr is a replacement
signal, not a rejection). v1's 21 + lqd/hyg/prefs/emb/tip/shy/vtv/
8 sectors/CTA/commodities. Basis fixes: drop vea/vug (dupes of
efa/qqq), drop finux (TERMINATED 2017 - silently zeroed the
complete-case mask; v1 forward selection never hit this), drop bil
(shv/bil near-null -> offsetting shv+64/bil-54 noise fits),
residualize vblix on ivv+tlt (pure vol axis), ridge 0.02.

cluster.py: hierarchical tree saved but fixed-k cuts degenerate
(most funds are blends -> one 2250-fund blob); k-means++ (deterministic)
is the useful grouping, re-run live in-app for any k.

app: Return-driver clusters expander (k slider 10-60, summary table,
member table sorted by alpha-t). Findings at k=30 in RESEARCH.md.
2026-08-27 08:35:42 -04:00
4fdd5fcfd1 Overnight comprehensive screen COMPLETE: 2,384 funds, 250 candidates, RESEARCH.md results + next iterations 2026-08-27 06:56:33 -04:00
11f569b2ab Watchdog: pidfile liveness (pgrep -f was fooled by shells quoting the pattern); per-batch download fault isolation 2026-08-26 22:09:20 -04:00
eac61683f6 RESEARCH.md: live progress notes + /tmp-cleanup infra lesson 2026-08-26 21:41:07 -04:00
a94eac6545 Overnight comprehensive screen: drop the name pre-filter, screen all 2,384 funds
fundlab/RESEARCH.md - running research log: sources that work/die
  (full-index = discovery workhorse; browse-edgar JS-dead;
  investment-company-tickers.json nonexistent; company_tickers.json
  useless for OTC; Yahoo crumb throttled but chart API fine), 13
  hard-won learnings (OTC funds report exchange 'Nasdaq' -> use
  instrumentType; 497 SGML cover uses UNCLOSED line-based tags ->
  parse before tag-stripping; full-index columns drift -> regex the
  line; one quarter != universe -> 4-qtr union; accession paths
  relative to /Archives/ not /Archives/edgar/data/; family CIKs
  repeat -> dedupe by series name; portfolio is 50% MN so MN alpha
  funds are 'correlated', not diversifying).

fundlab/overnight.py - resumable all-stage pipeline (kill/restart safe):
  verify (Yahoo chart per non-local ticker, 4-thread, 429 backoff,
  local tickers measured from CSV row counts) -> select (pure
  select_rows: MUTUALFUND, >=5y, one longest-history class per series
  name, alpha_name as TAG not filter) -> download (goget in 200-sym
  batches) -> screen (streamed, skip-already-done) -> finalize
  (verdict counts + candidates the v1 name-filter would have missed).

Universe: 10,372 class tickers -> 10,260 verified -> 2,384 funds
(407 local, 1,977 external; only 54 match the alpha name pattern -
the v2 point is to screen the other 2,330).

app: alpha table now dedupes by sym with search_all.json winning
(comprehensive superset).
tests: select_rows unit tests (ETF drop, short-history drop, class
collapse, name tagging). 70/70 fundlab.
2026-08-26 21:33:11 -04:00