RCTIX is the River Canyon Total Return Bond Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly ABS other (CLO/CMBS/AB) and Corporate bond. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.
Since 2015 it has compounded at +5.5% per year (a +87% total return) with +4% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 11%. Over the last five years it returned +30.6% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.3%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+1.4%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-5.6%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.
The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R² = 0.40). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.1% per year over the last five years (t = 2.7) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.5% per year (t = 2.6). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from ABS other (CLO/CMBS/AB) and Corporate bond - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.
To be explicit about the limits: 60% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 48% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.
Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.10 - a genuine diversifier.
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2015-to-2026 the fit explains 10% of the excess return (R² 0.10). The statistically identified tilt stack: modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (β +0.04, t +4); modest tilt away from energy (β -0.02, t -4); modest high-dividend tilt - a systematic preference for income-paying names (β +0.08, t +4); modest tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (β +0.02, t +3); modest anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (β -0.06, t -3); modest underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.04, t -3); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (β +0.07, t +3); modest long-euro position (exposed to EUR moves) (β +0.02, t +2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.04, t -3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +3.3%/year (t +3.3) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The loadings sum to 0.30, i.e. the fund is ~70% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
@@ -4021,11 +4026,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Discussion
RPIFX is the T. Rowe Price Institutional Floating Rate Fund. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.
Since 2008 it has compounded at +5.2% per year (a +157% total return) with +4% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 23%. Over the last five years it returned +39.5% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.4%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2023 rate shock' (+1.1%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-3.0%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.
The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R² = 0.45). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.1% per year over the last five years (t = 2.5) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.2% per year (t = 2.2).
To be explicit about the limits: 55% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 52% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.
Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.27 - a genuine diversifier.
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +156.9% | +26.5% | +671.6% | +130.4% |
| Last 5y | +39.5% | +19.2% | +123.7% | +20.3% |
| Last 1y | +4.4% | +3.6% | +20.7% | +0.8% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -3.0% | +0.6% | -24.5% | -3.7% |
| 2023 rate shock | +1.0% | +1.3% | -9.9% | -0.3% |
| 2024 vol spike | -0.0% | +0.3% | -8.4% | -0.3% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -1.6% | +0.6% | -18.8% | -2.2% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | -0.6% | +0.6% | -8.9% | -1.2% |
| 2021 | +4.7% | -0.1% | +30.6% | +4.8% |
| 2022 | -0.7% | +1.4% | -18.6% | -2.1% |
| 2023 | +12.6% | +4.9% | +26.9% | +7.6% |
| 2024 | +9.2% | +5.2% | +25.7% | +4.0% |
| 2025 | +6.7% | +4.1% | +18.1% | +2.6% |
| 2026 | +2.2% | +2.3% | +12.4% | -0.0% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Reference model, last 5 years: R² = 0.45, alpha = +2.1% (t = +2.5) vs the fitted reference mix (next section).
Reference model, full history: R² = 0.55, alpha = +2.2% (t = +2.2).
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): vweax +0.11, vblix +0.07, pff +0.02, fxe -0.01, vwo +0.01, xlp -0.01 - net cash +0.82.
Screen verdict: CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio
+
Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| EM (VWO) | +0.02 | +3.9 | +0.02 | +2.8 | |
| growth (VUG) | +0.00 | +0.2 | +0.04 | +3.0 | |
| value (VTV) | -0.08 | -2.1 | +0.00 | +0.1 | ✓ |
| small (IWM) | -0.02 | -2.7 | -0.03 | -3.0 | |
| lowvol (USMV) | +0.09 | +5.1 | -0.01 | -0.5 | |
| lowvol (DFLVX) | +0.15 | +11.9 | +0.03 | +0.9 | ✓ |
| quality (QUAL) | -0.03 | -1.8 | -0.05 | -2.3 | |
| longdur (TLT) | +0.00 | +1.0 | +0.01 | +2.3 | |
| gold (GLD) | -0.02 | -3.7 | -0.00 | -0.2 | |
| EUR (FXE) | +0.02 | +1.8 | -0.03 | -2.0 | |
| JPY (FXY) | +0.02 | +3.1 | -0.00 | -0.4 | |
| AUD (FXU) | -0.04 | -3.7 | +0.03 | +1.7 | |
| utilities (XLU) | +0.06 | +5.7 | -0.02 | -1.1 | ✓ |
| staples (XLP) | -0.04 | -4.1 | -0.02 | -1.6 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 15% of the excess return (R² 0.15). The statistically identified tilt stack: strong low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.15, t +12); clear tilt toward utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (β +0.06, t +6); clear low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.09, t +5); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (β -0.04, t -4); modest an emerging-market tilt (β +0.02, t +4); modest short-AUD position (USD carry) (β -0.04, t -4); modest tilt away from gold (β -0.02, t -4); modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (β +0.02, t +3); modest tilt away from US small caps (β -0.02, t -3); modest tilt away from US value equities (β -0.08, t -2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt toward US growth equities (β +0.04, t +3); modest anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (β -0.05, t -2); modest tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (β +0.01, t +2); modest short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (β -0.03, t -2) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +2.8%/year (t +3.1) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| VWEAX +0.45 | High-yield corporate bonds | credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times |
| VMBIX -0.10 | Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed) | mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle |
| FXE -0.03 | Long euros vs the dollar | EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential |
| IWM -0.01 | US small cap (Russell 2000) | small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window |
The loadings sum to 0.31, i.e. the fund is ~69% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4038,11 +4044,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Discussion
WMNUX is the Westwood Alternative Income Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Corporate bond and Cash/MMF (short-term). In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster with 90 other funds.
Since 2015 it has compounded at +4.5% per year (a +65% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 8%. Over the last five years it returned +30.2% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +6.9%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+0.5%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-2.6%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.
The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R² = 0.38). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +1.4% per year over the last five years (t = 2.4) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +3.0% per year (t = 3.9). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Corporate bond and Cash/MMF (short-term) - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.
To be explicit about the limits: 62% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 49% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.
Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is ENIAX (5y +31.6%, alpha t = +3.7); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.09 - a genuine diversifier.
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+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +65.1% | +25.1% | +337.2% | +40.0% |
| Last 5y | +30.2% | +19.2% | +123.7% | +11.1% |
| Last 1y | +6.9% | +3.6% | +20.7% | +3.3% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -2.7% | +0.6% | -24.5% | -3.3% |
| 2023 rate shock | -0.2% | +1.3% | -9.9% | -1.6% |
| 2024 vol spike | +0.4% | +0.3% | -8.4% | +0.1% |
| 2025 tariff crash | +0.1% | +0.6% | -18.8% | -0.4% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | +0.0% | +0.6% | -8.9% | -0.6% |
| 2021 | +3.2% | -0.1% | +30.6% | +3.3% |
| 2022 | -1.2% | +1.4% | -18.6% | -2.6% |
| 2023 | +6.8% | +4.9% | +26.9% | +1.9% |
| 2024 | +6.4% | +5.2% | +25.7% | +1.2% |
| 2025 | +7.7% | +4.1% | +18.1% | +3.6% |
| 2026 | +4.3% | +2.3% | +12.4% | +2.0% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Reference model, last 5 years: R² = 0.38, alpha = +1.4% (t = +2.4) vs the fitted reference mix (next section).
Reference model, full history: R² = 0.18, alpha = +3.0% (t = +3.9).
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): vweax +0.03, iwm +0.02, vmbix +0.01, tip +0.01, pff +0.01, xlp -0.01 - net cash +0.87.
Screen verdict: CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio
+
Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| int-dev (EFA) | -0.00 | -0.3 | +0.01 | +2.4 | |
| growth (VUG) | -0.03 | -2.8 | +0.02 | +2.4 | |
| small (IWM) | +0.03 | +5.2 | +0.02 | +5.2 | ✓ |
| equalwt (RSP) | +0.04 | +2.1 | +0.02 | +1.5 | |
| lowvol (USMV) | -0.00 | -0.1 | -0.02 | -2.0 | |
| div-apprec (VYM) | -0.08 | -3.6 | -0.03 | -1.7 | |
| longdur (TLT) | +0.01 | +2.1 | +0.01 | +4.1 | |
| EUR (FXE) | +0.04 | +5.5 | +0.02 | +2.4 | ✓ |
| JPY (FXY) | +0.02 | +3.7 | +0.01 | +1.3 | ✓ |
| AUD (FXU) | +0.01 | +1.0 | +0.02 | +2.5 | ✓ |
| staples (XLP) | -0.03 | -4.7 | -0.01 | -2.5 | ✓ |
| banks (XLF) | +0.01 | +2.1 | -0.01 | -1.6 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2015-to-2026 the fit explains 13% of the excess return (R² 0.13). The statistically identified tilt stack: clear long-euro position (exposed to EUR moves) (β +0.04, t +5); clear tilt toward US small caps (β +0.03, t +5); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (β -0.03, t -5); modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (β +0.02, t +4); modest tilt away from high dividend (appreciation-tilted) (β -0.08, t -4); modest tilt away from US growth equities (β -0.03, t -3); modest tilt toward banks/financials (β +0.01, t +2); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (β +0.04, t +2); modest tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (β +0.01, t +2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.02, t -2); modest long-AUD position (AUD carry) (β +0.02, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +2.6%/year (t +3.6) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| VWEAX +0.11 | High-yield corporate bonds | credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times |
| IWM +0.03 | US small cap (Russell 2000) | small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window |
| FXE +0.02 | Long euros vs the dollar | EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential |
| VMBIX +0.03 | Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed) | mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle |
| VNQ -0.01 | US REITs | physical real estate: rents vs rates, leverage in the property sector; equity-like income |
| VWO +0.01 | Emerging-market equity | EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive |
The loadings sum to 0.18, i.e. the fund is ~82% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4055,11 +4062,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Discussion
PRFRX is the T. Rowe Price Floating Rate Fund. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.
Since 2011 it has compounded at +4.4% per year (a +91% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 20%. Over the last five years it returned +38.1% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.4%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2023 rate shock' (+1.0%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-3.1%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.
The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R² = 0.46). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +1.9% per year over the last five years (t = 2.3) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.0% per year (t = 2.0).
To be explicit about the limits: 54% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 52% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.
Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.27 - a genuine diversifier.
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +90.9% | +24.7% | +674.8% | +66.2% |
| Last 5y | +38.1% | +19.2% | +123.7% | +18.9% |
| Last 1y | +4.4% | +3.6% | +20.7% | +0.7% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -3.0% | +0.6% | -24.5% | -3.6% |
| 2023 rate shock | +1.0% | +1.3% | -9.9% | -0.4% |
| 2024 vol spike | -0.0% | +0.3% | -8.4% | -0.3% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -1.7% | +0.6% | -18.8% | -2.3% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | -0.8% | +0.6% | -8.9% | -1.4% |
| 2021 | +4.5% | -0.1% | +30.6% | +4.6% |
| 2022 | -0.7% | +1.4% | -18.6% | -2.1% |
| 2023 | +12.2% | +4.9% | +26.9% | +7.3% |
| 2024 | +8.8% | +5.2% | +25.7% | +3.6% |
| 2025 | +6.5% | +4.1% | +18.1% | +2.3% |
| 2026 | +2.1% | +2.3% | +12.4% | -0.2% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Reference model, last 5 years: R² = 0.46, alpha = +1.9% (t = +2.3) vs the fitted reference mix (next section).
Reference model, full history: R² = 0.49, alpha = +2.0% (t = +2.0).
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): vweax +0.11, vblix +0.07, pff +0.02, fxe -0.01, vwo +0.01, iwm -0.01 - net cash +0.83.
Screen verdict: CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio
+
Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| EM (VWO) | +0.02 | +3.6 | +0.02 | +2.5 | ✓ |
| growth (VUG) | -0.00 | -0.2 | +0.04 | +3.1 | |
| value (VTV) | -0.10 | -2.6 | -0.00 | -0.1 | ✓ |
| small (IWM) | -0.02 | -2.8 | -0.02 | -2.9 | |
| lowvol (USMV) | +0.10 | +5.7 | -0.01 | -0.3 | |
| lowvol (DFLVX) | +0.15 | +11.9 | +0.01 | +0.3 | ✓ |
| quality (QUAL) | -0.03 | -1.7 | -0.05 | -2.4 | |
| gold (GLD) | -0.02 | -3.9 | -0.00 | -0.8 | |
| JPY (FXY) | +0.02 | +3.1 | -0.00 | -0.4 | |
| AUD (FXU) | -0.05 | -4.1 | +0.02 | +1.4 | ✓ |
| utilities (XLU) | +0.06 | +5.9 | -0.02 | -1.2 | ✓ |
| staples (XLP) | -0.04 | -4.3 | -0.01 | -1.3 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 15% of the excess return (R² 0.15). The statistically identified tilt stack: strong low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.15, t +12); clear tilt toward utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (β +0.06, t +6); clear low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.10, t +6); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (β -0.04, t -4); modest short-AUD position (USD carry) (β -0.05, t -4); modest tilt away from gold (β -0.02, t -4); modest an emerging-market tilt (β +0.02, t +4); modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (β +0.02, t +3); modest tilt away from US small caps (β -0.02, t -3); modest tilt away from US value equities (β -0.10, t -3).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt toward US growth equities (β +0.04, t +3); modest anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (β -0.05, t -2) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +2.5%/year (t +2.8) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| VWEAX +0.46 | High-yield corporate bonds | credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times |
| VMBIX -0.11 | Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed) | mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle |
| IWM -0.01 | US small cap (Russell 2000) | small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window |
| FXE -0.03 | Long euros vs the dollar | EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential |
The loadings sum to 0.31, i.e. the fund is ~69% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4072,11 +4080,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Discussion
FEMDX is the Franklin Emerging Market Debt Opportunities Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Foreign sovereign and Corporate bond. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.
Since 2006 it has compounded at +6.9% per year (a +287% total return) with +5% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 32%. Over the last five years it returned +52.0% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +17.0%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (-0.6%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-16.0%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.
The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R² = 0.32). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to em sovereign/corporate carry, a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +4.6% per year over the last five years (t = 2.3) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +3.9% per year (t = 2.3). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Foreign sovereign and Corporate bond - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.
To be explicit about the limits: 68% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 41% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.
Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE (defers to LTCG)). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.28 - a genuine diversifier.
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +286.5% | +30.2% | +771.6% | +256.4% |
| Last 5y | +52.0% | +19.2% | +123.7% | +32.8% |
| Last 1y | +17.0% | +3.6% | +20.7% | +13.4% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -16.1% | +0.6% | -24.5% | -16.7% |
| 2023 rate shock | -2.9% | +1.3% | -9.9% | -4.2% |
| 2024 vol spike | -0.7% | +0.3% | -8.4% | -1.0% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -4.1% | +0.6% | -18.8% | -4.7% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | -2.0% | +0.6% | -8.9% | -2.6% |
| 2021 | +1.3% | -0.1% | +30.6% | +1.4% |
| 2022 | -8.9% | +1.4% | -18.6% | -10.3% |
| 2023 | +15.2% | +4.9% | +26.9% | +10.3% |
| 2024 | +12.1% | +5.2% | +25.7% | +7.0% |
| 2025 | +15.3% | +4.1% | +18.1% | +11.2% |
| 2026 | +10.2% | +2.3% | +12.4% | +7.9% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Reference model, last 5 years: R² = 0.32, alpha = +4.6% (t = +2.3) vs the fitted reference mix (next section).
Reference model, full history: R² = 0.37, alpha = +3.9% (t = +2.3).
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): emb +0.13, vweax +0.10, efa +0.06, vwo +0.06, fxe +0.04, vblix +0.04 - net cash +0.68.
Screen verdict: CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio
+
Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| int-dev (EFA) | +0.09 | +7.7 | +0.11 | +5.2 | ✓ |
| EM (VWO) | +0.09 | +12.5 | +0.07 | +5.2 | ✓ |
| equalwt (RSP) | +0.07 | +2.1 | +0.07 | +1.3 | |
| lowvol (USMV) | -0.04 | -1.8 | -0.17 | -4.7 | |
| dividend (HDV) | +0.02 | +0.6 | +0.13 | +3.5 | |
| longdur (TLT) | +0.05 | +7.5 | +0.05 | +5.5 | ✓ |
| EUR (FXE) | +0.04 | +3.2 | +0.08 | +3.1 | ✓ |
| staples (XLP) | -0.02 | -1.4 | -0.04 | -2.2 | |
| banks (XLF) | +0.04 | +3.3 | +0.06 | +3.4 | |
| energy (XLE) | +0.00 | +0.1 | -0.05 | -4.8 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 31% of the excess return (R² 0.31). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 9% of international developed equities (t +8); strong an emerging-market tilt (β +0.09, t +13); clear tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (β +0.05, t +7); modest tilt toward banks/financials (β +0.04, t +3); modest long-euro position (exposed to EUR moves) (β +0.04, t +3); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (β +0.07, t +2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.17, t -5); modest high-dividend tilt - a systematic preference for income-paying names (β +0.13, t +4); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (β -0.04, t -2); modest tilt away from energy (β -0.05, t -5) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +3.7%/year (t +3.0) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| VWEAX +0.42 | High-yield corporate bonds | credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times |
| VWO +0.08 | Emerging-market equity | EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive |
| FXE +0.05 | Long euros vs the dollar | EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential |
| GSG -0.03 | Broad commodities (SPDR) | same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund |
| QQQ -0.05 | US large growth (Nasdaq-100) | growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows) |
| EFA +0.07 | Intl developed ex-US (MSCI EAFE) | developed-market equities outside the US; same exposure as VEA via a different index provider |
The loadings sum to 0.53, i.e. the fund is ~47% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4089,11 +4098,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Discussion
ETSIX is the Eaton Vance Strategic Income Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Fund/ETF holdings. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.
Since 1998 it has compounded at +5.2% per year (a +327% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 13%. Over the last five years it returned +31.4% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +7.2%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+0.6%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-5.4%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.
The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R² = 0.38). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.4% per year over the last five years (t = 2.3) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +1.7% per year (t = 2.6). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Fund/ETF holdings - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.
To be explicit about the limits: 62% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 47% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.
Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.17 - a genuine diversifier.
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +327.0% | +30.2% | +768.4% | +296.8% |
| Last 5y | +31.4% | +19.2% | +123.7% | +12.2% |
| Last 1y | +7.2% | +3.6% | +20.7% | +3.6% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -5.4% | +0.6% | -24.5% | -6.0% |
| 2023 rate shock | -1.6% | +1.3% | -9.9% | -2.9% |
| 2024 vol spike | +0.6% | +0.3% | -8.4% | +0.3% |
| 2025 tariff crash | +0.5% | +0.6% | -18.8% | -0.0% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | -0.9% | +0.6% | -8.9% | -1.5% |
| 2021 | +1.1% | -0.1% | +30.6% | +1.2% |
| 2022 | -2.7% | +1.4% | -18.6% | -4.1% |
| 2023 | +8.0% | +4.9% | +26.9% | +3.1% |
| 2024 | +6.8% | +5.2% | +25.7% | +1.6% |
| 2025 | +12.1% | +4.1% | +18.1% | +8.0% |
| 2026 | +3.3% | +2.3% | +12.4% | +1.1% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Reference model, last 5 years: R² = 0.38, alpha = +2.4% (t = +2.3) vs the fitted reference mix (next section).
Reference model, full history: R² = 0.30, alpha = +1.7% (t = +2.6).
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): vmbix +0.05, vweax +0.04, ief +0.03, agg +0.03, vwo +0.02, tip +0.02 - net cash +0.71.
Screen verdict: CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio
+
Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| int-dev (EFA) | +0.05 | +6.9 | +0.03 | +2.4 | ✓ |
| EM (VWO) | +0.02 | +3.5 | +0.03 | +4.1 | |
| small (IWM) | +0.02 | +2.2 | +0.01 | +1.3 | |
| lowvol (USMV) | -0.04 | -2.6 | -0.05 | -2.6 | |
| quality (QUAL) | -0.04 | -2.6 | -0.05 | -2.1 | |
| longdur (TLT) | +0.01 | +2.7 | +0.06 | +11.5 | ✓ |
| gold (GLD) | +0.00 | +0.8 | +0.01 | +2.5 | ✓ |
| EUR (FXE) | -0.04 | -4.2 | +0.03 | +2.6 | ✓ |
| JPY (FXY) | +0.02 | +3.2 | +0.03 | +3.6 | |
| AUD (FXU) | +0.03 | +2.6 | +0.05 | +3.0 | ✓ |
| utilities (XLU) | -0.03 | -2.9 | -0.04 | -2.5 | ✓ |
| staples (XLP) | +0.03 | +3.1 | +0.00 | +0.2 | |
| health (XLV) | +0.02 | +3.2 | +0.01 | +1.5 | |
| energy (XLE) | -0.01 | -2.1 | -0.01 | -1.6 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 14% of the excess return (R² 0.14). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 5% of international developed equities (t +7); modest short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (β -0.04, t -4); modest an emerging-market tilt (β +0.02, t +3); modest tilt toward healthcare (defensive) (β +0.02, t +3); modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (β +0.02, t +3); modest tilt toward consumer staples (defensive) (β +0.03, t +3); modest tilt away from utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (β -0.03, t -3); modest tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (β +0.01, t +3); modest underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.04, t -3); modest long-AUD position (AUD carry) (β +0.03, t +3); modest anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (β -0.04, t -3); modest tilt toward US small caps (β +0.02, t +2); modest tilt away from energy (β -0.01, t -2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt toward gold (β +0.01, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +2.1%/year (t +2.6) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| VMBIX +0.21 | Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed) | mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle |
| VEA +0.04 | Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard) | developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter |
| QQQ -0.03 | US large growth (Nasdaq-100) | growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows) |
| VWEAX +0.11 | High-yield corporate bonds | credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times |
| VWO +0.03 | Emerging-market equity | EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive |
| GSG -0.01 | Broad commodities (SPDR) | same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund |
The loadings sum to 0.34, i.e. the fund is ~66% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4106,11 +4116,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Discussion
HICOX is the COLORADO BONDSHARES A TAX EXEMPT FUND. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Municipal bond and Corporate bond. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.
Since 1987 it has compounded at +5.7% per year (a +774% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 8%. Over the last five years it returned +23.9% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +5.8%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+1.1%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-6.6%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.
The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R² = 0.26). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +1.4% per year over the last five years (t = 1.2) - at that t-stat it is not yet clearly different from a lucky streak. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.6% per year (t = 4.4). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Municipal bond and Corporate bond - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.
To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 74% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way. The alpha is also not steady: in 46% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.
Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE (munis)). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.04 - a genuine diversifier.
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +774.4% | +30.2% | +768.4% | +744.2% |
| Last 5y | +23.9% | +19.2% | +123.7% | +4.7% |
| Last 1y | +5.8% | +3.6% | +20.7% | +2.1% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -6.6% | +0.6% | -24.5% | -7.2% |
| 2023 rate shock | -3.1% | +1.3% | -9.9% | -4.4% |
| 2024 vol spike | +1.1% | +0.3% | -8.4% | +0.8% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -1.8% | +0.6% | -18.8% | -2.3% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | +0.1% | +0.6% | -8.9% | -0.5% |
| 2021 | +4.8% | -0.1% | +30.6% | +4.9% |
| 2022 | -4.8% | +1.4% | -18.6% | -6.2% |
| 2023 | +7.0% | +4.9% | +26.9% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | +7.7% | +5.2% | +25.7% | +2.5% |
| 2025 | +5.3% | +4.1% | +18.1% | +1.2% |
| 2026 | +2.1% | +2.3% | +12.4% | -0.2% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Reference model, last 5 years: R² = 0.26, alpha = +1.4% (t = +1.2) vs the fitted reference mix (next section).
Reference model, full history: R² = 0.18, alpha = +2.6% (t = +4.4).
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): vweax +0.05, vmbix +0.03, pff +0.03, vblix +0.03, vnq +0.02, ief +0.02 - net cash +0.77.
Screen verdict: CANDIDATE (semi-alpha: mostly explained by net exposure)
+
Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| value (VTV) | +0.10 | +3.5 | +0.10 | +1.8 | |
| equalwt (RSP) | +0.07 | +3.7 | +0.06 | +1.7 | |
| lowvol (DFLVX) | -0.07 | -7.1 | -0.08 | -2.3 | |
| dividend (HDV) | +0.03 | +2.4 | +0.02 | +0.8 | |
| div-apprec (VYM) | -0.06 | -2.8 | -0.07 | -2.0 | |
| longdur (TLT) | +0.04 | +10.7 | +0.06 | +10.7 | ✓ |
| JPY (FXY) | +0.03 | +5.2 | +0.02 | +1.8 | ✓ |
| health (XLV) | -0.01 | -2.5 | -0.01 | -1.0 | |
| energy (XLE) | -0.01 | -3.7 | -0.01 | -1.2 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 15% of the excess return (R² 0.15). The statistically identified tilt stack: strong tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (β +0.04, t +11); clear underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.07, t -7); clear long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (β +0.03, t +5); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (β +0.07, t +4); modest tilt away from energy (β -0.01, t -4); modest tilt toward US value equities (β +0.10, t +4); modest tilt away from high dividend (appreciation-tilted) (β -0.06, t -3); modest tilt away from healthcare (defensive) (β -0.01, t -2); modest high-dividend tilt - a systematic preference for income-paying names (β +0.03, t +2).
After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +2.7%/year (t +3.9) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| VMBIX +0.16 | Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed) | mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle |
| VWEAX +0.19 | High-yield corporate bonds | credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times |
| IVV -0.04 | US large blend (S&P 500) | core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure |
| VNQ +0.02 | US REITs | physical real estate: rents vs rates, leverage in the property sector; equity-like income |
The loadings sum to 0.33, i.e. the fund is ~67% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4123,11 +4134,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Strategy (excerpt from the filing)
Discussion
ATESX is the Anchor Risk Mgd Equity Strategies Instl. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks to provide long-term growth of capital while providing current income. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster.
Since 2016 it has compounded at +8.3% per year (a +121% total return) with +11% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 13%. Over the last five years it returned +28.2% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.0%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).
The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R² = 0.42). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to trend-following across futures, a small tilt to growth/tech-heavy us equities, a small tilt to the tech sector index - are minor tilts, not the story. Most of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic rather than benchmark-like. The honest five-year read of its excess return is -1.6% per year (t = -0.5): over the recent window this fund is NOT measurably adding to its fitted reference. Over the full history the same estimate is -0.6% per year (t = -0.2). The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.85 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.
To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 58% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.
Account placement: taxable (N-PORT holdings says TAXABLE).
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+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +120.8% | +25.0% | +312.7% | +95.8% |
| Last 5y | +28.2% | +19.2% | +124.4% | +9.0% |
| Last 1y | +4.0% | +3.6% | +21.0% | +0.4% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -2.2% | +0.6% | -24.5% | -2.8% |
| 2023 rate shock | -5.7% | +1.3% | -9.9% | -7.0% |
| 2024 vol spike | -5.2% | +0.3% | -8.4% | -5.5% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -4.9% | +0.6% | -18.8% | -5.5% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | -2.7% | +0.6% | -8.9% | -3.3% |
| 2021 | +12.6% | -0.1% | +30.6% | +12.7% |
| 2022 | -10.0% | +1.4% | -18.6% | -11.4% |
| 2023 | +8.2% | +4.9% | +26.9% | +3.3% |
| 2024 | +8.3% | +5.2% | +25.7% | +3.1% |
| 2025 | +5.6% | +4.1% | +18.1% | +1.5% |
| 2026 | +2.7% | +2.3% | +12.7% | +0.4% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): dbmf +0.13, qqq +0.13, xlk +0.12, iwm +0.07, ivv +0.05, tip +0.05 - net cash +0.55.
Decomposition verdict: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions
Weight stability: max 1y β-drift = 0.85 (relative to full-sample β; 0 = perfectly stable, >1 = the weight is unstable).
Holdings (May 2026): QQQ 65% + SPY 29% + MMF 0.6%, with 4.9% 'other assets in excess of liabilities' — an options overlay. But the rolling beta to those SAME holdings stays 0.13–0.89 (median 0.30, never above 1): the 'risk managed' in the name is real — a systematic equity de-risking overlay. Decomposition: one TACTICAL US-equity sleeve, not a static mix.
+Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| int-dev (EFA) | -0.06 | -2.3 | -0.03 | -0.8 | |
| growth (VUG) | +0.26 | +7.0 | +0.19 | +4.2 | ✓ |
| small (IWM) | +0.06 | +2.6 | +0.12 | +4.1 | |
| equalwt (RSP) | -0.22 | -3.0 | -0.25 | -2.5 | |
| lowvol (DFLVX) | +0.14 | +4.1 | -0.16 | -1.5 | ✓ |
| quality (QUAL) | +0.10 | +1.7 | +0.16 | +2.2 | |
| momentum (MTUM) | +0.06 | +2.6 | +0.04 | +1.6 | ✓ |
| staples (XLP) | -0.05 | -1.6 | -0.09 | -2.5 | |
| health (XLV) | -0.06 | -2.4 | -0.09 | -2.9 | |
| banks (XLF) | -0.12 | -4.4 | -0.15 | -4.5 | ✓ |
| energy (XLE) | -0.05 | -3.9 | -0.04 | -2.0 | ✓ |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2016-to-2026 the fit explains 34% of the excess return (R² 0.34). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 6% of international developed equities (t -2); clear tilt toward US growth equities (β +0.26, t +7); modest tilt away from banks/financials (β -0.12, t -4); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.14, t +4); modest tilt away from energy (β -0.05, t -4); modest cap-weight concentration (tilt away from equal-weight/small) (β -0.22, t -3); modest tilt toward US small caps (β +0.06, t +3); modest momentum tilt (preference for recent winners) (β +0.06, t +3); modest tilt away from healthcare (defensive) (β -0.06, t -2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest quality tilt (high-ROE, low-debt, stable earnings) (β +0.16, t +2); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (β -0.09, t -3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is +1.8%/year (t +0.6) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| QQQ +0.45 | US large growth (Nasdaq-100) | growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows) |
| IVV -0.22 | US large blend (S&P 500) | core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure |
The loadings sum to 0.22, i.e. the fund is ~78% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4140,11 +4152,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Strategy (excerpt from the filing)
Discussion
ATRFX is the Catalyst Systematic Alpha I. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks to provide a total return that exceeds the BNP Paribas Catalyst Systematic Alpha Index II (the Benchmark ). Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster.
Since 2014 it has compounded at +5.0% per year (a +80% total return) with +15% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 35%. Over the last five years it returned +47.5% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +7.0%. It was positive in 5 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).
The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R² = 0.31). The loadings that do show up - exposure to trend-following across futures, exposure to international developed markets, a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds - are minor tilts, not the story. Most of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic rather than benchmark-like. The honest five-year read of its excess return is -5.0% per year (t = -0.8): over the recent window this fund is NOT measurably adding to its fitted reference. Over the full history the same estimate is +0.5% per year (t = 0.1). The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 1.83 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.
To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 69% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.
Account placement: IRA (N-PORT holdings says IRA).
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+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +80.3% | +25.0% | +387.2% | +55.4% |
| Last 5y | +47.5% | +19.2% | +124.4% | +28.4% |
| Last 1y | +7.0% | +3.6% | +21.0% | +3.4% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -9.9% | +0.6% | -24.5% | -10.5% |
| 2023 rate shock | -8.2% | +1.3% | -9.9% | -9.5% |
| 2024 vol spike | -19.0% | +0.3% | -8.4% | -19.3% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -23.5% | +0.6% | -18.8% | -24.1% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | -17.0% | +0.6% | -8.9% | -17.6% |
| 2021 | +25.2% | -0.1% | +30.6% | +25.3% |
| 2022 | -3.6% | +1.4% | -18.6% | -5.0% |
| 2023 | +22.7% | +4.9% | +26.9% | +17.8% |
| 2024 | -3.9% | +5.2% | +25.7% | -9.1% |
| 2025 | +2.7% | +4.1% | +18.1% | -1.4% |
| 2026 | -0.4% | +2.3% | +12.7% | -2.6% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): dbmf +0.17, efa +0.15, vweax +0.14, xlp -0.13, fxy -0.11, dbb +0.10 - net cash +0.52.
Decomposition verdict: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions
Weight stability: max 1y β-drift = 1.83 (relative to full-sample β; 0 = perfectly stable, >1 = the weight is unstable).
Systematic alpha over short-duration IG credit + cash. Returns are dominated by idiosyncratic credit/derivatives P&L (R² ≤ 0.22 vs bond sleeves) and the best-fit weights are knife-edge. Read as: cash-like carry + systematic alpha, no meaningful static sleeve.
+Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| int-dev (EFA) | +0.16 | +4.3 | +0.32 | +5.2 | |
| EM (VWO) | -0.06 | -2.6 | +0.02 | +0.4 | |
| value (VTV) | -0.02 | -0.1 | +0.82 | +2.9 | |
| lowvol (USMV) | -0.38 | -5.0 | -0.47 | -4.2 | ✓ |
| lowvol (DFLVX) | +0.16 | +3.0 | -0.30 | -1.6 | |
| quality (QUAL) | +0.27 | +3.3 | +0.13 | +1.0 | ✓ |
| momentum (MTUM) | +0.10 | +3.3 | +0.06 | +1.4 | ✓ |
| dividend (HDV) | -0.27 | -3.6 | -0.18 | -1.6 | |
| div-apprec (VYM) | +0.56 | +4.4 | +0.36 | +1.9 | |
| gold (GLD) | +0.07 | +4.1 | +0.10 | +3.7 | ✓ |
| EUR (FXE) | -0.03 | -0.7 | -0.23 | -3.1 | |
| JPY (FXY) | -0.06 | -1.8 | -0.21 | -4.1 | |
| AUD (FXU) | -0.12 | -2.3 | -0.09 | -0.9 | |
| utilities (XLU) | +0.17 | +3.7 | +0.08 | +1.0 | ✓ |
| energy (XLE) | -0.06 | -3.3 | -0.06 | -2.0 | ✓ |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2014-to-2026 the fit explains 16% of the excess return (R² 0.16). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 16% of international developed equities (t +4); modest underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.38, t -5); modest dividend-appreciation tilt (growing payers) (β +0.56, t +4); modest tilt toward gold (β +0.07, t +4); modest tilt toward utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (β +0.17, t +4); modest underweight to high-dividend names (β -0.27, t -4); modest tilt away from energy (β -0.06, t -3); modest momentum tilt (preference for recent winners) (β +0.10, t +3); modest quality tilt (high-ROE, low-debt, stable earnings) (β +0.27, t +3); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.16, t +3); modest developed-only tilt (away from emerging markets) (β -0.06, t -3); modest short-AUD position (USD carry) (β -0.12, t -2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt toward US value equities (β +0.82, t +3); modest short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (β -0.23, t -3); modest short-yen position that carries the USD/JPY rate differential (β -0.21, t -4) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is -0.1%/year (t -0.0) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| IVV +0.17 | US large blend (S&P 500) | core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure |
| VEA +0.41 | Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard) | developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter |
| FXY -0.26 | Long yen vs the dollar | USD/JPY: carries the Japan rate differential; carry-trade crowding risk |
| FXE -0.30 | Long euros vs the dollar | EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential |
| GLD +0.13 | Gold | crisis/inflation hedge; real-rate sensitive, no yield |
| DJP -0.09 | Natural gas | a single volatile commodity: winter/hedging cycles |
The loadings sum to 0.07, i.e. the fund is ~93% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4157,11 +4170,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Strategy (excerpt from the filing)
Discussion
CVSIX is the Calamos Market Neutral Income A. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment strategy can be characterized as market neutral because it seeks to achieve maximum current income while maintaining a low correlation to the fluctuations of the US equity market as a whole. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +1.98' cluster.
Since 1990 it has compounded at +5.5% per year (a +590% total return) with +5% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 21%. Over the last five years it returned +30.1% versus +17.8% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +6.4%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).
The fit is strong: 75% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of -0.6% per year (t = -0.9) - is statistically indistinguishable from zero, i.e. the strategy is not clearly adding anything on top of the mix it owns. The curated decomposition's read: partially explainable — material active/timing residual. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.49 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.
To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 25% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.
Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE (defers to LTCG)).
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+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +589.7% | +63.8% | +770.9% | +525.9% |
| Last 5y | +30.1% | +17.8% | +124.4% | +12.3% |
| Last 1y | +6.4% | +3.4% | +21.0% | +2.9% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -7.1% | -4.9% | -24.5% | -2.2% |
| 2023 rate shock | -0.2% | -1.8% | -9.9% | +1.5% |
| 2024 vol spike | -0.5% | -1.3% | -8.4% | +0.9% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -2.3% | -3.3% | -18.8% | +1.0% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | -0.6% | -1.6% | -8.9% | +0.9% |
| 2021 | +5.0% | +5.2% | +30.6% | -0.2% |
| 2022 | -4.6% | -3.2% | -18.6% | -1.4% |
| 2023 | +9.0% | +4.6% | +26.9% | +4.4% |
| 2024 | +7.1% | +4.6% | +25.7% | +2.5% |
| 2025 | +6.8% | +3.7% | +18.1% | +3.1% |
| 2026 | +4.0% | +2.0% | +12.7% | +1.9% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): qqq +0.04, ivv +0.03, xlf +0.03, hyg +0.02, xly +0.02, iwm -0.02 - net cash +0.80.
Decomposition verdict: partially explainable — material active/timing residual
Weight stability: max 1y β-drift = 0.49 (relative to full-sample β; 0 = perfectly stable, >1 = the weight is unstable).
Market neutral (long US equity, short credit). Full sample (since 1990) is unexplainable — the strategy has changed over 36 years; the last 5 years show a small net equity/credit tilt (ivv +0.14, vweax +0.06) explaining 74%. The rest is spread/option alpha (full-sample annualized alpha +5.5%, t=6.7).
+Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| int-dev (EFA) | +0.01 | +2.3 | +0.01 | +1.5 | |
| EM (VWO) | +0.01 | +3.0 | -0.00 | -0.1 | ✓ |
| growth (VUG) | +0.10 | +15.4 | +0.11 | +13.3 | ✓ |
| value (VTV) | +0.06 | +3.1 | +0.01 | +0.5 | ✓ |
| small (IWM) | -0.01 | -2.8 | -0.02 | -4.3 | ✓ |
| lowvol (USMV) | +0.02 | +2.4 | -0.01 | -0.6 | |
| lowvol (DFLVX) | +0.03 | +5.2 | +0.07 | +3.3 | ✓ |
| momentum (MTUM) | -0.02 | -4.2 | -0.01 | -2.2 | |
| dividend (HDV) | -0.01 | -0.7 | +0.05 | +4.0 | |
| div-apprec (VYM) | -0.07 | -4.5 | -0.09 | -4.2 | |
| JPY (FXY) | -0.01 | -3.1 | -0.01 | -1.9 | |
| AUD (FXU) | +0.01 | +1.0 | +0.02 | +2.4 | |
| staples (XLP) | +0.01 | +2.6 | +0.01 | +1.6 | |
| health (XLV) | +0.01 | +3.5 | +0.00 | +0.7 | |
| banks (XLF) | +0.03 | +5.4 | +0.03 | +4.7 | ✓ |
| energy (XLE) | +0.01 | +6.2 | +0.00 | +1.4 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 78% of the excess return (R² 0.78). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 1% of international developed equities (t +2); strong tilt toward US growth equities (β +0.10, t +15); clear tilt toward energy (β +0.01, t +6); clear tilt toward banks/financials (β +0.03, t +5); clear low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.03, t +5); modest tilt away from high dividend (appreciation-tilted) (β -0.07, t -4); modest anti-momentum character - it does not chase recent winners (low-turnover/contrarian) (β -0.02, t -4); modest tilt toward healthcare (defensive) (β +0.01, t +3); modest short-yen position that carries the USD/JPY rate differential (β -0.01, t -3); modest tilt toward US value equities (β +0.06, t +3); modest an emerging-market tilt (β +0.01, t +3); modest tilt away from US small caps (β -0.01, t -3); modest tilt toward consumer staples (defensive) (β +0.01, t +3); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.02, t +2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest high-dividend tilt - a systematic preference for income-paying names (β +0.05, t +4); modest long-AUD position (AUD carry) (β +0.02, t +2) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is +0.0%/year (t +0.1) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| IVV +0.21 | US large blend (S&P 500) | core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure |
| VWEAX +0.06 | High-yield corporate bonds | credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times |
| IWM -0.01 | US small cap (Russell 2000) | small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window |
| QQQ -0.02 | US large growth (Nasdaq-100) | growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows) |
The loadings sum to 0.23, i.e. the fund is ~77% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4174,11 +4188,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Strategy (excerpt from the filing)
Discussion
JLPSX is the JPMorgan US Large Cap Core Plus I. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks to provide high total return from a portfolio of selected equity securities. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'no dominant driver (balanced/idio)' cluster.
Since 2005 it has compounded at +12.6% per year (a +1074% total return) with +22% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 51%. Over the last five years it returned +123.5% versus +127.4% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +14.5%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).
The fit is strong: 95% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures - exposure to core us equity market, exposure to growth/tech-heavy us equities, exposure to the tech sector index. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of -0.2% per year (t = -0.2) - is statistically indistinguishable from zero, i.e. the strategy is not clearly adding anything on top of the mix it owns. The curated decomposition's read: partially explainable — material active/timing residual. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.04 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.
To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 5% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.
Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE).
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +1074.1% | +879.7% | +832.1% | +194.4% |
| Last 5y | +123.5% | +127.4% | +123.7% | -3.9% |
| Last 1y | +14.5% | +21.0% | +20.7% | -6.5% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -25.1% | -24.5% | -24.5% | -0.6% |
| 2023 rate shock | -7.9% | -9.6% | -9.9% | +1.7% |
| 2024 vol spike | -8.1% | -8.9% | -8.4% | +0.8% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -19.1% | -19.1% | -18.8% | +0.1% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | -10.8% | -9.3% | -8.9% | -1.5% |
| 2021 | +31.1% | +29.4% | +30.6% | +1.7% |
| 2022 | -18.6% | -18.9% | -18.6% | +0.3% |
| 2023 | +31.1% | +28.7% | +26.9% | +2.3% |
| 2024 | +29.9% | +26.7% | +25.7% | +3.2% |
| 2025 | +14.6% | +18.8% | +18.1% | -4.2% |
| 2026 | +8.1% | +12.3% | +12.4% | -4.2% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): ivv +0.19, qqq +0.19, xlk +0.17, xlf +0.10, xlv +0.08, xly +0.06 - net cash +0.07.
Decomposition verdict: partially explainable — material active/timing residual
Weight stability: max 1y β-drift = 0.04 (relative to full-sample β; 0 = perfectly stable, >1 = the weight is unstable).
US large-cap core plus: essentially 1.04x the S&P 500 (R² 0.96 over 5y, stable). The 'plus' is small optionality (tiny ijt/vwo tilts in the 5y fit). The cleanest fund on the list.
+Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| growth (VUG) | +0.52 | +13.1 | +0.47 | +27.2 | ✓ |
| value (VTV) | +0.87 | +6.9 | +0.26 | +4.1 | ✓ |
| small (IWM) | -0.02 | -0.8 | -0.05 | -4.4 | ✓ |
| equalwt (RSP) | -0.27 | -3.5 | -0.13 | -3.4 | |
| lowvol (DFLVX) | +0.08 | +1.9 | +0.17 | +4.2 | ✓ |
| quality (QUAL) | +0.16 | +2.6 | +0.17 | +6.0 | |
| momentum (MTUM) | +0.02 | +0.8 | +0.06 | +6.3 | |
| dividend (HDV) | -0.09 | -1.6 | -0.12 | -4.8 | |
| div-apprec (VYM) | -0.31 | -3.2 | -0.01 | -0.2 | |
| health (XLV) | +0.03 | +1.2 | +0.05 | +4.5 | |
| banks (XLF) | -0.01 | -0.3 | +0.04 | +3.2 | |
| energy (XLE) | +0.03 | +2.1 | +0.02 | +3.2 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 74% of the excess return (R² 0.74). The statistically identified tilt stack: strong tilt toward US growth equities (β +0.52, t +13); clear tilt toward US value equities (β +0.87, t +7); modest cap-weight concentration (tilt away from equal-weight/small) (β -0.27, t -3); modest tilt away from high dividend (appreciation-tilted) (β -0.31, t -3); modest quality tilt (high-ROE, low-debt, stable earnings) (β +0.16, t +3); modest tilt toward energy (β +0.03, t +2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt away from US small caps (β -0.05, t -4); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.17, t +4); clear momentum tilt (preference for recent winners) (β +0.06, t +6); modest underweight to high-dividend names (β -0.12, t -5); modest tilt toward healthcare (defensive) (β +0.05, t +5); modest tilt toward banks/financials (β +0.04, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is -0.6%/year (t -0.2) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| IVV +1.00 | US large blend (S&P 500) | core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure |
| VNQ -0.05 | US REITs | physical real estate: rents vs rates, leverage in the property sector; equity-like income |
| QQQ +0.05 | US large growth (Nasdaq-100) | growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows) |
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4191,11 +4206,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Strategy (excerpt from the filing)
Discussion
PMAIX is the Victory Pioneer Multi-Asset Income A. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks a high level of current income. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster.
Since 2011 it has compounded at +8.6% per year (a +236% total return) with +7% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 24%. Over the last five years it returned +78.6% versus +36.1% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +15.7%. It was positive in 7 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).
The fit is strong: 71% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures - a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds, a small tilt to international developed markets. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of +3.6% per year (t = 2.4) - is small relative to the beta, but it is what separates this fund from the equivalent index mix. The curated decomposition's read: partially explainable — material active/timing residual. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.45 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.
To be explicit about the limits: 29% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. Global multi-asset fund of funds (N-PORT: 99.5% in unaffiliated underlying funds/loans) - the holdings check is the ground truth here, and the return model is only a description of it.
Account placement: not settled by the model - the sleeve model calls it MIXED, so the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter before choosing taxable vs IRA.
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +236.2% | +84.1% | +688.7% | +152.1% |
| Last 5y | +78.6% | +36.1% | +124.4% | +42.5% |
| Last 1y | +15.7% | +9.8% | +21.0% | +5.9% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -7.9% | -9.9% | -24.5% | +2.0% |
| 2023 rate shock | -2.6% | -5.0% | -9.9% | +2.4% |
| 2024 vol spike | -1.0% | -1.3% | -8.4% | +0.2% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -5.2% | -4.0% | -18.8% | -1.2% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | -1.5% | -1.5% | -8.9% | -0.1% |
| 2021 | +11.9% | +7.5% | +30.6% | +4.5% |
| 2022 | -0.0% | -2.4% | -18.6% | +2.4% |
| 2023 | +8.8% | +2.2% | +26.9% | +6.6% |
| 2024 | +7.8% | +6.2% | +25.7% | +1.5% |
| 2025 | +22.6% | +12.6% | +18.1% | +10.0% |
| 2026 | +9.7% | +5.4% | +12.7% | +4.3% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): vweax +0.13, efa +0.10, vblix +0.08, xlf +0.08, xle +0.07, vwo +0.06 - net cash +0.37.
Decomposition verdict: partially explainable — material active/timing residual
Weight stability: max 1y β-drift = 0.45 (relative to full-sample β; 0 = perfectly stable, >1 = the weight is unstable).
Global multi-asset fund of funds (N-PORT: 99.5% in unaffiliated underlying funds/loans). Returns decompose into high-yield credit (vweax +0.62), intl equity (efa +0.23), commodities (+0.05), bonds (−0.15): R² 0.68, stable weights, alpha +3.5%/yr (t=3.3). The sleeves show through the underlying funds.
+Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| int-dev (EFA) | +0.20 | +17.3 | +0.15 | +9.2 | ✓ |
| EM (VWO) | +0.03 | +4.2 | +0.06 | +5.6 | |
| growth (VUG) | -0.08 | -4.7 | -0.02 | -0.8 | ✓ |
| value (VTV) | -0.24 | -4.7 | -0.08 | -1.1 | |
| small (IWM) | -0.01 | -0.9 | -0.04 | -3.1 | |
| equalwt (RSP) | +0.11 | +3.4 | +0.15 | +3.3 | |
| lowvol (USMV) | -0.01 | -0.5 | -0.06 | -2.0 | |
| lowvol (DFLVX) | +0.11 | +6.4 | +0.09 | +1.7 | ✓ |
| quality (QUAL) | -0.04 | -1.5 | -0.11 | -3.1 | |
| momentum (MTUM) | -0.02 | -2.0 | -0.03 | -3.0 | |
| div-apprec (VYM) | +0.15 | +3.8 | +0.06 | +1.1 | |
| longdur (TLT) | +0.02 | +2.7 | +0.02 | +2.0 | ✓ |
| gold (GLD) | +0.00 | +0.7 | +0.02 | +2.8 | |
| EUR (FXE) | +0.04 | +3.4 | +0.05 | +2.4 | |
| AUD (FXU) | +0.04 | +2.7 | +0.07 | +2.8 | |
| utilities (XLU) | -0.03 | -2.4 | -0.06 | -2.4 | |
| staples (XLP) | -0.04 | -3.2 | -0.02 | -1.5 | |
| health (XLV) | +0.04 | +4.2 | +0.02 | +1.2 | |
| banks (XLF) | +0.06 | +5.4 | +0.08 | +5.3 | ✓ |
| energy (XLE) | +0.04 | +6.4 | +0.05 | +5.9 | ✓ |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 64% of the excess return (R² 0.64). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 20% of international developed equities (t +17); clear low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.11, t +6); clear tilt toward energy (β +0.04, t +6); clear tilt toward banks/financials (β +0.06, t +5); modest tilt away from US value equities (β -0.24, t -5); modest tilt away from US growth equities (β -0.08, t -5); modest an emerging-market tilt (β +0.03, t +4); modest tilt toward healthcare (defensive) (β +0.04, t +4); modest dividend-appreciation tilt (growing payers) (β +0.15, t +4); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (β +0.11, t +3); modest long-euro position (exposed to EUR moves) (β +0.04, t +3); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (β -0.04, t -3); modest tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (β +0.02, t +3); modest long-AUD position (AUD carry) (β +0.04, t +3); modest tilt away from utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (β -0.03, t -2); modest anti-momentum character - it does not chase recent winners (low-turnover/contrarian) (β -0.02, t -2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt away from US small caps (β -0.04, t -3); modest underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.06, t -2); modest anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (β -0.11, t -3); modest tilt toward gold (β +0.02, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +4.4%/year (t +3.6) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| VEA +0.16 | Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard) | developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter |
| VWEAX +0.47 | High-yield corporate bonds | credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times |
| QQQ -0.36 | US large growth (Nasdaq-100) | growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows) |
| IVV +0.43 | US large blend (S&P 500) | core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure |
| DJP +0.05 | Natural gas | a single volatile commodity: winter/hedging cycles |
| VWO +0.07 | Emerging-market equity | EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive |
The loadings sum to 0.83, i.e. the fund is ~17% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4208,11 +4224,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Strategy (excerpt from the filing)
Discussion
PMORX is the Putnam Mortgage Opportunities A. Stated strategy: The fund seeks to maximize total return consistent with what the Investment Manager (as defined below) believes to be prudent risk. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +1.98' cluster.
Since 2019 it has compounded at +4.3% per year (a +35% total return) with +6% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 19%. Over the last five years it returned +37.3% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +6.2%. It was positive in 4 of the last 7 calendar years (including the partial current year).
The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R² = 0.08). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.1% per year over the last five years (t = 1.7) - at that t-stat it is not yet clearly different from a lucky streak. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.0% per year (t = 1.0). The stated strategy ('The fund seeks to maximize total return consistent with what the Investment Manager (as defined below)...') is a plausible mechanism as well, but that is a hypothesis - the returns only tell us the outperformance exists, not why. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.74 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.
To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 92% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.
Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA).
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +35.2% | +20.7% | +189.8% | +14.5% |
| Last 5y | +37.3% | +19.2% | +123.7% | +18.2% |
| Last 1y | +6.2% | +3.6% | +20.7% | +2.5% |
| 2022 bear mkt | +3.4% | +0.6% | -24.5% | +2.8% |
| 2023 rate shock | +1.0% | +1.3% | -9.9% | -0.3% |
| 2024 vol spike | +1.2% | +0.3% | -8.4% | +0.9% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -0.4% | +0.6% | -18.8% | -0.9% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | +2.4% | +0.6% | -8.9% | +1.8% |
| 2021 | -2.2% | -0.1% | +30.6% | -2.1% |
| 2022 | +5.8% | +1.4% | -18.6% | +4.4% |
| 2023 | +6.5% | +4.9% | +26.9% | +1.5% |
| 2024 | +10.0% | +5.2% | +25.7% | +4.8% |
| 2025 | +5.5% | +4.1% | +18.1% | +1.3% |
| 2026 | +5.3% | +2.3% | +12.4% | +3.1% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): vmbix +0.02, ief -0.02, xlf +0.02, dbmf +0.02, vwo +0.01, gld -0.01 - net cash +0.95.
Decomposition verdict: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions
Weight stability: max 1y β-drift = 0.74 (relative to full-sample β; 0 = perfectly stable, >1 = the weight is unstable).
Long/short mortgage & ABS — returns mostly idiosyncratic (R² 0.10). 5y direction is long MBS (vmbix +0.31) / short intermediate rates (ief −0.39), consistent with a carry/relative-value mortgage strategy. Not a static sleeve.
+Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| EM (VWO) | +0.01 | +1.0 | +0.02 | +2.4 | |
| lowvol (USMV) | +0.07 | +2.0 | -0.05 | -2.3 | |
| div-apprec (VYM) | +0.04 | +0.6 | -0.09 | -2.4 | ✓ |
| longdur (TLT) | +0.02 | +2.5 | +0.01 | +1.6 | |
| gold (GLD) | -0.02 | -2.3 | -0.01 | -2.2 | |
| EUR (FXE) | +0.03 | +1.3 | -0.04 | -2.4 | |
| AUD (FXU) | -0.07 | -2.5 | -0.01 | -0.4 | |
| utilities (XLU) | +0.08 | +3.4 | +0.01 | +0.4 | ✓ |
| banks (XLF) | +0.03 | +1.8 | +0.04 | +3.2 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2019-to-2026 the fit explains 8% of the excess return (R² 0.08). The statistically identified tilt stack: modest tilt toward utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (β +0.08, t +3); modest tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (β +0.02, t +3); modest short-AUD position (USD carry) (β -0.07, t -2); modest tilt away from gold (β -0.02, t -2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest an emerging-market tilt (β +0.02, t +2); modest underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.05, t -2); modest tilt away from high dividend (appreciation-tilted) (β -0.09, t -2); modest short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (β -0.04, t -2); modest tilt toward banks/financials (β +0.04, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is +2.0%/year (t +1.0) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| EFA +0.04 | Intl developed ex-US (MSCI EAFE) | developed-market equities outside the US; same exposure as VEA via a different index provider |
| FXE -0.05 | Long euros vs the dollar | EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential |
The loadings sum to -0.00, i.e. the fund is ~100% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4225,11 +4242,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Strategy (excerpt from the filing)
Discussion
QSPNX is the AQR Style Premia Alternative N. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks long-term absolute (positive) returns. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +1.98' cluster.
Since 2013 it has compounded at +7.7% per year (a +160% total return) with +11% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 42%. Over the last five years it returned +197.1% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +22.0%. It was positive in 5 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).
The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R² = 0.32). The loadings that do show up - exposure to cheap/asset-rich us names (financials, energy, cyclicals), short-like exposure to growth/tech-heavy us equities (it rises when that asset falls), a small tilt to international developed markets - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +10.5% per year over the last five years (t = 2.2) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +7.6% per year (t = 1.8). The stated strategy ('The Fund seeks long-term absolute (positive) returns') is a plausible mechanism as well, but that is a hypothesis - the returns only tell us the outperformance exists, not why. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 1.00 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.
To be explicit about the limits: 68% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up.
Account placement: not settled by the model - the sleeve model calls it MIXED, so the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter before choosing taxable vs IRA.
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +159.6% | +24.9% | +439.8% | +134.7% |
| Last 5y | +197.1% | +19.2% | +124.4% | +177.9% |
| Last 1y | +22.0% | +3.6% | +21.0% | +18.4% |
| 2022 bear mkt | +23.7% | +0.6% | -24.5% | +23.1% |
| 2023 rate shock | +11.6% | +1.3% | -9.9% | +10.3% |
| 2024 vol spike | -4.5% | +0.3% | -8.4% | -4.8% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -2.6% | +0.6% | -18.8% | -3.1% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | +8.9% | +0.6% | -8.9% | +8.3% |
| 2021 | +23.7% | -0.1% | +30.6% | +23.8% |
| 2022 | +30.2% | +1.4% | -18.6% | +28.8% |
| 2023 | +12.4% | +4.9% | +26.9% | +7.5% |
| 2024 | +19.6% | +5.2% | +25.7% | +14.4% |
| 2025 | +14.8% | +4.1% | +18.1% | +10.7% |
| 2026 | +18.5% | +2.3% | +12.7% | +16.3% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): vtv +0.21, qqq -0.16, efa +0.14, xly -0.14, xlf +0.13, iwm -0.12 - net cash +1.18.
Decomposition verdict: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions
Weight stability: max 1y β-drift = 1.00 (relative to full-sample β; 0 = perfectly stable, >1 = the weight is unstable).
Market-neutral style premia: no static sleeve explains returns (R² 0.18 5y). Alpha vs a cash-like benchmark: +12.8%/yr full sample (t=4.0). Decomposition = pure factor harvesting (value/size/style tilts in both books); the 'exposures' in the table are residuals, not sleeves.
+Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| int-dev (EFA) | +0.13 | +4.9 | +0.25 | +5.5 | |
| EM (VWO) | -0.06 | -3.7 | -0.11 | -3.8 | |
| growth (VUG) | -0.40 | -10.8 | -0.39 | -6.8 | ✓ |
| small (IWM) | -0.16 | -7.0 | -0.28 | -7.4 | ✓ |
| equalwt (RSP) | -0.34 | -4.7 | -0.66 | -5.3 | ✓ |
| lowvol (USMV) | +0.22 | +4.0 | +0.15 | +1.8 | |
| lowvol (DFLVX) | +0.11 | +2.8 | +0.74 | +5.3 | |
| quality (QUAL) | +0.08 | +1.3 | +0.20 | +2.2 | |
| momentum (MTUM) | +0.22 | +9.7 | +0.12 | +3.6 | ✓ |
| dividend (HDV) | -0.06 | -1.1 | -0.20 | -2.3 | |
| div-apprec (VYM) | +0.72 | +8.0 | +0.68 | +4.8 | ✓ |
| longdur (TLT) | -0.04 | -3.0 | -0.02 | -0.8 | ✓ |
| gold (GLD) | -0.03 | -2.6 | -0.07 | -3.4 | |
| JPY (FXY) | -0.07 | -2.8 | -0.17 | -4.5 | |
| AUD (FXU) | +0.00 | +0.1 | +0.21 | +3.0 | |
| utilities (XLU) | -0.07 | -2.0 | -0.24 | -3.6 | |
| health (XLV) | -0.06 | -2.5 | -0.14 | -3.6 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 22% of the excess return (R² 0.22). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 13% of international developed equities (t +5); strong tilt away from US growth equities (β -0.40, t -11); clear momentum tilt (preference for recent winners) (β +0.22, t +10); clear dividend-appreciation tilt (growing payers) (β +0.72, t +8); clear tilt away from US small caps (β -0.16, t -7); modest cap-weight concentration (tilt away from equal-weight/small) (β -0.34, t -5); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.22, t +4); modest developed-only tilt (away from emerging markets) (β -0.06, t -4); modest tilt away from long-duration Treasuries (β -0.04, t -3); modest short-yen position that carries the USD/JPY rate differential (β -0.07, t -3); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.11, t +3); modest tilt away from gold (β -0.03, t -3); modest tilt away from healthcare (defensive) (β -0.06, t -3); modest tilt away from utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (β -0.07, t -2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest quality tilt (high-ROE, low-debt, stable earnings) (β +0.20, t +2); modest underweight to high-dividend names (β -0.20, t -2); modest long-AUD position (AUD carry) (β +0.21, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +6.3%/year (t +2.3) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| QQQ -0.74 | US large growth (Nasdaq-100) | growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows) |
| IVV +0.83 | US large blend (S&P 500) | core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure |
| VNQ -0.25 | US REITs | physical real estate: rents vs rates, leverage in the property sector; equity-like income |
| GSG +0.09 | Broad commodities (SPDR) | same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund |
| FXY -0.26 | Long yen vs the dollar | USD/JPY: carries the Japan rate differential; carry-trade crowding risk |
| VEA +0.19 | Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard) | developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter |
The loadings sum to -0.16, i.e. the fund is ~116% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4242,11 +4260,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Strategy (excerpt from the filing)
Discussion
SVARX is the Spectrum Low Volatility Investor. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment objective is total return with lower downside volatility and risk compared to major stock market indices. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster.
Since 2013 it has compounded at +6.1% per year (a +112% total return) with +4% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 6%. Over the last five years it returned +20.8% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.9%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).
The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R² = 0.30). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +0.8% per year over the last five years (t = 0.7) - at that t-stat it is not yet clearly different from a lucky streak. Over the full history the same estimate is +3.0% per year (t = 2.5). The stated strategy ('The Fund's investment objective is total return with lower downside volatility and risk compared to major...') is a plausible mechanism as well, but that is a hypothesis - the returns only tell us the outperformance exists, not why. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.26 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.
To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 70% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.
Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA).
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +112.0% | +24.9% | +433.2% | +87.1% |
| Last 5y | +20.8% | +19.2% | +124.4% | +1.7% |
| Last 1y | +4.9% | +3.6% | +21.0% | +1.3% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -5.6% | +0.6% | -24.5% | -6.2% |
| 2023 rate shock | +0.6% | +1.3% | -9.9% | -0.7% |
| 2024 vol spike | -0.2% | +0.3% | -8.4% | -0.5% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -0.8% | +0.6% | -18.8% | -1.3% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | -1.1% | +0.6% | -8.9% | -1.7% |
| 2021 | +4.1% | -0.1% | +30.6% | +4.2% |
| 2022 | -4.3% | +1.4% | -18.6% | -5.8% |
| 2023 | +9.8% | +4.9% | +26.9% | +4.8% |
| 2024 | +3.0% | +5.2% | +25.7% | -2.1% |
| 2025 | +6.2% | +4.1% | +18.1% | +2.1% |
| 2026 | +1.6% | +2.3% | +12.7% | -0.7% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): vweax +0.04, dbmf +0.02, fxy +0.02, emb +0.02, vblix +0.02, vmbix +0.02 - net cash +0.74.
Decomposition verdict: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions
Weight stability: max 1y β-drift = 0.26 (relative to full-sample β; 0 = perfectly stable, >1 = the weight is unstable).
Low-volatility equity fund of funds. Small but positive net market (efa +0.07, agg +0.10; R² 0.24, low drift). The edge is in volatility selection, not the mix: +5.2%/yr alpha over that small sleeve (t=5.1).
+Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| int-dev (EFA) | +0.05 | +5.3 | +0.02 | +2.0 | ✓ |
| growth (VUG) | +0.02 | +1.6 | +0.03 | +2.6 | |
| value (VTV) | +0.03 | +0.7 | +0.10 | +2.0 | |
| lowvol (USMV) | -0.02 | -1.2 | -0.04 | -2.1 | |
| lowvol (DFLVX) | +0.04 | +3.1 | -0.01 | -0.5 | |
| momentum (MTUM) | -0.04 | -4.9 | -0.02 | -2.1 | ✓ |
| longdur (TLT) | +0.03 | +6.2 | +0.05 | +9.2 | ✓ |
| JPY (FXY) | +0.01 | +1.3 | +0.03 | +2.9 | |
| staples (XLP) | -0.02 | -2.2 | -0.02 | -2.1 | |
| energy (XLE) | -0.01 | -2.1 | -0.01 | -1.8 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 15% of the excess return (R² 0.15). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 5% of international developed equities (t +5); clear tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (β +0.03, t +6); modest anti-momentum character - it does not chase recent winners (low-turnover/contrarian) (β -0.04, t -5); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.04, t +3); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (β -0.02, t -2); modest tilt away from energy (β -0.01, t -2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt toward US growth equities (β +0.03, t +3); modest tilt toward US value equities (β +0.10, t +2); modest underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.04, t -2); modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (β +0.03, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +3.9%/year (t +3.9) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| VWEAX +0.16 | High-yield corporate bonds | credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times |
| AGG +0.12 | Aggregate bonds (Treasuries + IG credit) | the core bond market: ~60% Treasuries, IG corporates, MBS; moderate duration |
| VEA +0.03 | Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard) | developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter |
The loadings sum to 0.31, i.e. the fund is ~69% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4259,11 +4278,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Strategy (excerpt from the filing)
Discussion
COSIX is the Columbia Strategic Income Fund. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks total return, consisting of current income and capital appreciation. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.31' cluster with 200 other funds.
Since 1986 it has compounded at +5.5% per year (a +794% total return) with +5% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 26%. Over the last five years it returned +12.1% versus +5.5% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +2.9%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+1.3%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-13.8%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest. Its drawdown screen verdict: sleeve mix (R² high) - not alpha-driven.
The fit is strong: 87% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of +0.3% per year (t = 0.5) - is statistically indistinguishable from zero, i.e. the strategy is not clearly adding anything on top of the mix it owns. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions [strategy evolved — 5y R² = 0.86]. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.83 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.
To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 13% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way. The alpha is also not steady: in 49% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.
Account placement: IRA (N-PORT holdings says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is SGYAX (5y +34.4%, alpha t = +1.5); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.15 - a genuine diversifier.
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +793.7% | +80.2% | +770.9% | +713.5% |
| Last 5y | +12.1% | +5.5% | +124.4% | +6.6% |
| Last 1y | +2.9% | +2.8% | +21.0% | +0.1% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -13.8% | -11.4% | -24.5% | -2.4% |
| 2023 rate shock | -3.4% | -3.8% | -9.9% | +0.5% |
| 2024 vol spike | +1.3% | +1.1% | -8.4% | +0.2% |
| 2025 tariff crash | +0.0% | -0.0% | -18.8% | +0.0% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | -0.8% | -0.6% | -8.9% | -0.2% |
| 2021 | +1.6% | +0.2% | +30.6% | +1.4% |
| 2022 | -11.4% | -8.6% | -18.6% | -2.8% |
| 2023 | +9.4% | +5.2% | +26.9% | +4.2% |
| 2024 | +5.0% | +2.3% | +25.7% | +2.6% |
| 2025 | +7.0% | +6.8% | +18.1% | +0.2% |
| 2026 | +1.4% | +0.6% | +12.7% | +0.8% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Reference model, last 5 years: R² = 0.87, alpha = +0.3% (t = +0.5) vs the fitted reference mix (next section).
Reference model, full history: R² = 0.64, alpha = +1.0% (t = +1.9).
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): vmbix +0.08, vweax +0.08, ief +0.06, tlt +0.06, agg +0.05, emb +0.04 - net cash +0.42.
Decomposition verdict: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions [strategy evolved — 5y R² = 0.86]
Weight stability: max 1y β-drift = 0.83 (relative to full-sample β; 0 = perfectly stable, >1 = the weight is unstable).
Strategic income across the credit spectrum. Full sample (since 1990) unexplainable — vintage; the last 5 years are the honest current mix: high-yield +0.30, MBS +0.29, IG core +0.18 (R² 0.86).
Screen verdict: sleeve mix (R² high) - not alpha-driven
+Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| int-dev (EFA) | +0.07 | +8.4 | +0.04 | +4.2 | ✓ |
| EM (VWO) | +0.02 | +3.8 | +0.01 | +1.7 | |
| value (VTV) | +0.07 | +1.8 | +0.09 | +2.0 | |
| equalwt (RSP) | +0.06 | +2.6 | +0.06 | +2.2 | |
| lowvol (USMV) | +0.02 | +1.2 | -0.04 | -2.1 | |
| momentum (MTUM) | -0.03 | -4.0 | -0.02 | -2.7 | |
| div-apprec (VYM) | -0.04 | -1.6 | -0.07 | -2.2 | |
| longdur (TLT) | +0.10 | +23.5 | +0.18 | +40.1 | ✓ |
| EUR (FXE) | -0.02 | -2.1 | +0.04 | +3.3 | |
| JPY (FXY) | +0.05 | +6.3 | +0.04 | +4.6 | ✓ |
| AUD (FXU) | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.04 | +2.4 | ✓ |
| banks (XLF) | +0.01 | +1.0 | +0.02 | +2.8 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 38% of the excess return (R² 0.38). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 7% of international developed equities (t +8); strong tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (β +0.10, t +24); clear long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (β +0.05, t +6); modest anti-momentum character - it does not chase recent winners (low-turnover/contrarian) (β -0.03, t -4); modest an emerging-market tilt (β +0.02, t +4); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (β +0.06, t +3); modest short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (β -0.02, t -2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt toward US value equities (β +0.09, t +2); modest underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.04, t -2); modest tilt away from high dividend (appreciation-tilted) (β -0.07, t -2); modest long-AUD position (AUD carry) (β +0.04, t +2); modest tilt toward banks/financials (β +0.02, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is +1.1%/year (t +1.3) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| VMBIX +0.29 | Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed) | mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle |
| VWEAX +0.27 | High-yield corporate bonds | credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times |
| AGG +0.14 | Aggregate bonds (Treasuries + IG credit) | the core bond market: ~60% Treasuries, IG corporates, MBS; moderate duration |
| EFA +0.03 | Intl developed ex-US (MSCI EAFE) | developed-market equities outside the US; same exposure as VEA via a different index provider |
| QQQ -0.02 | US large growth (Nasdaq-100) | growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows) |
| VBLIX +0.05 | VIX futures (pure vol axis) | crash insurance / short-vol funding; positive loading = long-vol (rises in panic), negative = short-vol carry |
The loadings sum to 0.76, i.e. the fund is ~24% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4276,11 +4296,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Strategy (excerpt from the filing)
Discussion
MBXIX is the Catalyst/Millburn Hedge Strategy I. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment objective is long-term capital appreciation. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +1.98' cluster.
Since 2015 it has compounded at +9.0% per year (a +149% total return) with +13% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 32%. Over the last five years it returned +69.4% versus +45.3% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +16.3%. It was positive in 5 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).
The measured exposures explain a good share but not all (53% R²) of its excess returns. The main ones: exposure to trend-following across futures, a small tilt to mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk, a small tilt to broad commodities. The residual is -0.8% per year (t = -0.2): not statistically distinct from noise at the five-year horizon, so treat the outperformance as part beta, part luck until it accumulates more history. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.77 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.
To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 47% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way. Caveat: newest N-PORT on file is Sep 2024 — the fund may have changed strategy or stopped filing - the holdings check is the ground truth here, and the return model is only a description of it.
Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE (defers to LTCG)).
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +149.5% | +62.2% | +343.2% | +87.3% |
| Last 5y | +69.4% | +45.3% | +124.4% | +24.1% |
| Last 1y | +16.3% | +11.1% | +21.0% | +5.2% |
| 2022 bear mkt | +10.9% | +6.7% | -24.5% | +4.2% |
| 2023 rate shock | +2.3% | -0.8% | -9.9% | +3.1% |
| 2024 vol spike | -6.6% | -5.8% | -8.4% | -0.8% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -13.3% | -11.3% | -18.8% | -2.0% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | +4.0% | +0.1% | -8.9% | +4.0% |
| 2021 | +17.5% | +16.1% | +30.6% | +1.4% |
| 2022 | +7.4% | +4.5% | -18.6% | +2.9% |
| 2023 | +1.4% | +2.4% | +26.9% | -1.0% |
| 2024 | +13.4% | +7.2% | +25.7% | +6.3% |
| 2025 | +3.7% | -2.3% | +18.1% | +5.9% |
| 2026 | +12.7% | +10.4% | +12.7% | +2.3% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): dbmf +0.18, vmbix -0.12, gsg +0.09, iwm +0.08, fxe -0.07, ief -0.07 - net cash +0.97.
Decomposition verdict: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions
Weight stability: max 1y β-drift = 0.77 (relative to full-sample β; 0 = perfectly stable, >1 = the weight is unstable).
Multi-strategy hedge fund: 53% explained over a decade (ivv +0.39, ief −0.67, fxe −0.28, tlt +0.17, djp +0.08) — equity long, duration short, FX/commodity tilts, large active residual. Caveat: newest N-PORT on file is Sep 2024 — the fund may have changed strategy or stopped filing.
+Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| EM (VWO) | +0.05 | +3.2 | +0.02 | +0.8 | |
| small (IWM) | +0.12 | +5.6 | +0.06 | +2.2 | |
| equalwt (RSP) | +0.13 | +1.9 | +0.20 | +2.1 | ✓ |
| lowvol (USMV) | +0.25 | +5.0 | +0.11 | +1.8 | |
| lowvol (DFLVX) | -0.18 | -5.1 | -0.13 | -1.2 | ✓ |
| momentum (MTUM) | +0.09 | +4.2 | +0.12 | +4.7 | ✓ |
| div-apprec (VYM) | +0.18 | +2.1 | +0.20 | +1.8 | |
| longdur (TLT) | -0.08 | -6.1 | -0.15 | -8.7 | ✓ |
| EUR (FXE) | -0.25 | -8.1 | -0.20 | -4.6 | ✓ |
| JPY (FXY) | -0.07 | -2.8 | -0.12 | -3.9 | |
| utilities (XLU) | -0.08 | -2.4 | -0.07 | -1.3 | |
| energy (XLE) | +0.09 | +7.1 | +0.10 | +5.7 | ✓ |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2015-to-2026 the fit explains 56% of the excess return (R² 0.56). The statistically identified tilt stack: clear short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (β -0.25, t -8); clear tilt toward energy (β +0.09, t +7); clear tilt away from long-duration Treasuries (β -0.08, t -6); clear tilt toward US small caps (β +0.12, t +6); clear underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.18, t -5); clear low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.25, t +5); modest momentum tilt (preference for recent winners) (β +0.09, t +4); modest an emerging-market tilt (β +0.05, t +3); modest short-yen position that carries the USD/JPY rate differential (β -0.07, t -3); modest tilt away from utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (β -0.08, t -2); modest dividend-appreciation tilt (growing payers) (β +0.18, t +2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (β +0.20, t +2) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is +0.6%/year (t +0.2) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| IVV +0.26 | US large blend (S&P 500) | core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure |
| VMBIX -0.60 | Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed) | mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle |
| GSG +0.11 | Broad commodities (SPDR) | same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund |
| IWM +0.16 | US small cap (Russell 2000) | small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window |
| FXE -0.18 | Long euros vs the dollar | EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential |
| VWEAX -0.22 | High-yield corporate bonds | credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times |
The loadings sum to -0.48, i.e. the fund is ~148% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4293,11 +4314,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Strategy (excerpt from the filing)
Discussion
EAGMX is the Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Fund. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment objective is total return. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster with 90 other funds.
Since 1997 it has compounded at +5.1% per year (a +324% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 9%. Over the last five years it returned +38.9% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +11.1%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2025 tariff crash' (+0.2%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-5.1%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest. Its drawdown screen verdict: alpha in 5y window, but not persistent (lucky stretch?).
The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R² = 0.07). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.6% per year over the last five years (t = 2.4) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +1.6% per year (t = 2.7). The stated strategy ('The Fund's investment objective is total return') is a plausible mechanism as well, but that is a hypothesis - the returns only tell us the outperformance exists, not why. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.26 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.
To be explicit about the limits: 93% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 56% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.
Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is ENIAX (5y +31.6%, alpha t = +3.7); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.24 - a genuine diversifier.
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +323.9% | +30.2% | +770.9% | +293.8% |
| Last 5y | +38.9% | +19.2% | +124.4% | +19.8% |
| Last 1y | +11.1% | +3.6% | +21.0% | +7.5% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -5.1% | +0.6% | -24.5% | -5.7% |
| 2023 rate shock | -0.3% | +1.3% | -9.9% | -1.6% |
| 2024 vol spike | -0.7% | +0.3% | -8.4% | -1.0% |
| 2025 tariff crash | +0.2% | +0.6% | -18.8% | -0.4% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | -0.1% | +0.6% | -8.9% | -0.7% |
| 2021 | +1.7% | -0.1% | +30.6% | +1.8% |
| 2022 | -1.0% | +1.4% | -18.6% | -2.4% |
| 2023 | +7.1% | +4.9% | +26.9% | +2.2% |
| 2024 | +8.6% | +5.2% | +25.7% | +3.4% |
| 2025 | +12.0% | +4.1% | +18.1% | +7.9% |
| 2026 | +5.9% | +2.3% | +12.7% | +3.6% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Reference model, last 5 years: R² = 0.07, alpha = +2.6% (t = +2.4) vs the fitted reference mix (next section).
Reference model, full history: R² = 0.16, alpha = +1.6% (t = +2.7).
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): hyg -0.03, vweax +0.03, vwo +0.02, vblix +0.02, efa +0.01, ief -0.01 - net cash +0.99.
Decomposition verdict: not a static sleeve mix — returns driven by active decisions
Weight stability: max 1y β-drift = 0.26 (relative to full-sample β; 0 = perfectly stable, >1 = the weight is unstable).
Global macro (sovereign-centric): nothing explains returns in the full or 5y window (R² ≤ 0.05) — textbook macro, positions are tactical and asset-agnostic. The whole story is +5.1%/yr (t=8.0) over a flat benchmark.
Screen verdict: alpha in 5y window, but not persistent (lucky stretch?)
+Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| int-dev (EFA) | +0.03 | +4.8 | +0.02 | +1.5 | ✓ |
| EM (VWO) | +0.01 | +3.5 | +0.03 | +4.0 | |
| lowvol (USMV) | -0.02 | -1.6 | -0.06 | -3.0 | |
| lowvol (DFLVX) | -0.02 | -2.5 | -0.04 | -1.1 | |
| quality (QUAL) | -0.04 | -3.2 | -0.05 | -2.2 | |
| longdur (TLT) | -0.02 | -7.1 | -0.02 | -3.5 | ✓ |
| EUR (FXE) | -0.05 | -7.7 | -0.00 | -0.2 | ✓ |
| banks (XLF) | +0.01 | +1.3 | +0.02 | +2.0 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 11% of the excess return (R² 0.11). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 3% of international developed equities (t +5); clear short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (β -0.05, t -8); clear tilt away from long-duration Treasuries (β -0.02, t -7); modest an emerging-market tilt (β +0.01, t +4); modest anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (β -0.04, t -3); modest underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.02, t -3).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest underweight to low-volatility names (β -0.06, t -3); modest tilt toward banks/financials (β +0.02, t +2) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +2.1%/year (t +3.2) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| VWO +0.03 | Emerging-market equity | EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive |
| IEF -0.07 | 7-10 year Treasuries (core duration) | the core rate bet: price moves when the Fed path changes |
| QQQ -0.02 | US large growth (Nasdaq-100) | growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows) |
| VWEAX +0.10 | High-yield corporate bonds | credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times |
The loadings sum to 0.04, i.e. the fund is ~96% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4315,6 +4337,7 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
no price data
What drove the returns
Decomposition verdict: no return history
NEW share classes (trading since Jul 2026) — no return history to regress. Holdings (Dec 2025 N-PORT): 91.7% ETFs + 8.4% money market; the strategy is Leuthold core multi-asset via ETFs. Re-run the decomposition after a year of NAV accumulates.
+
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
Reference: cash (the T-bill rate itself). No sleeve passed the forward-selection gates, so the fund's excess returns are not explained by any benchmark mix - its entire excess performance is idiosyncratic (5y alpha —). There is no meaningful 'beta' to this fund; it is a standalone position.
Tax character & placement
@@ -4327,11 +4350,12 @@ much of the excess return the mix explains; alpha is what is left.
Strategy (excerpt from the filing)
Discussion
LAMHX is the Lord Abbett Dividend Growth R6. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment objective is to seek current income and capital appreciation. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'no dominant driver (balanced/idio)' cluster.
Since 2015 it has compounded at +13.0% per year (a +290% total return) with +17% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 33%. Over the last five years it returned +103.9% versus +110.8% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +16.7%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).
The fit is strong: 95% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures - exposure to the tech sector index, a small tilt to core us equity market, a small tilt to banks/insurance: rate + credit cycle. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of -1.4% per year (t = -1.0) - is statistically indistinguishable from zero, i.e. the strategy is not clearly adding anything on top of the mix it owns. The curated decomposition's read: static sleeve mix (weights stable, ~fully explained). Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.44 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.
To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 5% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.
Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE).
-
+
Performance
| period | fund | reference | IVV | fund − ref |
|---|
| Full history | +290.1% | +262.7% | +345.1% | +27.4% |
| Last 5y | +103.9% | +110.8% | +123.7% | -6.9% |
| Last 1y | +16.7% | +18.2% | +20.7% | -1.5% |
| 2022 bear mkt | -21.3% | -20.7% | -24.5% | -0.6% |
| 2023 rate shock | -8.6% | -9.5% | -9.9% | +0.9% |
| 2024 vol spike | -6.5% | -7.0% | -8.4% | +0.5% |
| 2025 tariff crash | -16.5% | -16.8% | -18.8% | +0.3% |
| 2026 Q1 drawdown | -5.6% | -7.7% | -8.9% | +2.1% |
| 2021 | +28.1% | +29.0% | +30.6% | -0.9% |
| 2022 | -12.8% | -13.5% | -18.6% | +0.7% |
| 2023 | +17.1% | +18.8% | +26.9% | -1.6% |
| 2024 | +23.2% | +23.6% | +25.7% | -0.4% |
| 2025 | +16.7% | +16.3% | +18.1% | +0.4% |
| 2026 | +9.1% | +10.8% | +12.4% | -1.8% |
fund − reference = period alpha/timing (the part of that period the sleeve mix does not explain). IVV shown for scale - for non-equity funds the IVV column is only context.
What drove the returns
Return-driver signature (34 sleeves, for clustering context): xlk +0.17, ivv +0.14, xlf +0.12, vtv +0.09, xlv +0.09, qqq +0.08 - net cash +0.06.
Decomposition verdict: static sleeve mix (weights stable, ~fully explained)
Weight stability: max 1y β-drift = 0.44 (relative to full-sample β; 0 = perfectly stable, >1 = the weight is unstable).
Dividend growth: R² 0.95; S&P 500 + value/mid tilt (ivv +0.62, ive +0.26, ijk +0.20, iwm −0.14 over 5y), stable weights. Closest to a passive fund with an overlay on this list.
+Style tilts
22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the excess returns of the fund (US funds proxy the global factors); "identified" = survived the BIC forward-selection gate on the full history.
| factor | β full | t full | β 5y | t 5y | identified |
|---|
| int-dev (EFA) | +0.02 | +2.3 | +0.02 | +1.2 | |
| EM (VWO) | -0.02 | -2.7 | -0.02 | -2.8 | |
| growth (VUG) | +0.13 | +10.2 | +0.15 | +9.4 | ✓ |
| value (VTV) | +0.09 | +2.2 | +0.15 | +2.5 | |
| small (IWM) | -0.02 | -3.1 | -0.03 | -3.2 | |
| equalwt (RSP) | -0.02 | -0.7 | -0.11 | -3.2 | |
| lowvol (USMV) | +0.16 | +8.6 | +0.07 | +3.1 | ✓ |
| lowvol (DFLVX) | +0.03 | +2.5 | +0.06 | +1.6 | |
| quality (QUAL) | +0.28 | +14.0 | +0.32 | +12.2 | ✓ |
| momentum (MTUM) | +0.06 | +7.6 | +0.05 | +6.0 | ✓ |
| dividend (HDV) | -0.11 | -5.9 | -0.16 | -6.5 | |
| div-apprec (VYM) | +0.33 | +10.8 | +0.31 | +7.8 | ✓ |
| EUR (FXE) | +0.02 | +2.0 | +0.04 | +2.3 | |
| JPY (FXY) | -0.02 | -2.6 | -0.03 | -2.4 | |
| utilities (XLU) | +0.04 | +4.0 | +0.06 | +3.3 | ✓ |
| staples (XLP) | +0.03 | +3.2 | +0.03 | +2.5 | |
| health (XLV) | -0.01 | -1.8 | +0.03 | +3.1 | |
| banks (XLF) | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.03 | +2.8 | |
| energy (XLE) | +0.01 | +1.3 | +0.01 | +2.0 | |
Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2015-to-2026 the fit explains 96% of the excess return (R² 0.96). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 2% of international developed equities (t +2); strong quality tilt (high-ROE, low-debt, stable earnings) (β +0.28, t +14); strong dividend-appreciation tilt (growing payers) (β +0.33, t +11); strong tilt toward US growth equities (β +0.13, t +10); clear low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.16, t +9); clear momentum tilt (preference for recent winners) (β +0.06, t +8); clear underweight to high-dividend names (β -0.11, t -6); modest tilt toward utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (β +0.04, t +4); modest tilt toward consumer staples (defensive) (β +0.03, t +3); modest tilt away from US small caps (β -0.02, t -3); modest developed-only tilt (away from emerging markets) (β -0.02, t -3); modest short-yen position that carries the USD/JPY rate differential (β -0.02, t -3); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (β +0.03, t +3); modest tilt toward US value equities (β +0.09, t +2); modest long-euro position (exposed to EUR moves) (β +0.02, t +2).
Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest cap-weight concentration (tilt away from equal-weight/small) (β -0.11, t -3); modest tilt toward healthcare (defensive) (β +0.03, t +3); modest tilt toward banks/financials (β +0.03, t +3); modest tilt toward energy (β +0.01, t +2) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.
After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is -0.2%/year (t -0.2) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.
Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well.
The reference mix - and what it exposes you to
| loading | what it is | what it exposes you to |
|---|
| IVV +1.20 | US large blend (S&P 500) | core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure |
| QQQ -0.26 | US large growth (Nasdaq-100) | growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows) |
The loadings sum to 0.95, i.e. the fund is ~5% NET CASH (earns the T-bill rate; adds zero excess alpha).
The reference is NOT one index - it is this fitted mix, rebuilt from the fund's own returns. "Alpha" everywhere in this report means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate.
Tax character & placement
diff --git a/reports/report_data.json b/reports/report_data.json
index ce727ac..61947bf 100644
--- a/reports/report_data.json
+++ b/reports/report_data.json
@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"generated": "2026-08-30 17:33", "funds": {"scfzx": {"meta": {"sym": "scfzx", "name": "PGIM Securitized Credit Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 1, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+37.0%", "cagr": "+4.7%", "mdd": "-17.2%", "r2_5y": "0.34", "alpha_5y": "+2.2% (t=+3.5)"}, "narrative": ["SCFZX is the PGIM Securitized Credit Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly ABS other (CLO/CMBS/AB) and CLO (collateralized debt). In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster with 90 other funds.", "Since 2019 it has compounded at +4.7% per year (a +39% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 17%. Over the last five years it returned +37.0% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +5.1%. It was positive in 4 of the last 7 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2023 rate shock' (+1.4%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-2.6%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.34). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.2% per year over the last five years (t = 3.5) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +1.5% per year (t = 1.7). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from ABS other (CLO/CMBS/AB) and CLO (collateralized debt) - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 66% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is ENIAX (5y +31.6%, alpha t = +3.7); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.16 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2019-07-01", "2019-07-03", "2019-07-08", "2019-07-10", "2019-07-12", "2019-07-16", "2019-07-18", "2019-07-22", "2019-07-24", "2019-07-26", "2019-07-30", "2019-08-01", "2019-08-05", "2019-08-07", "2019-08-09", "2019-08-13", "2019-08-15", "2019-08-19", "2019-08-21", "2019-08-23", "2019-08-27", "2019-08-29", "2019-09-03", "2019-09-05", "2019-09-09", "2019-09-11", "2019-09-13", "2019-09-17", "2019-09-19", "2019-09-23", "2019-09-25", "2019-09-27", "2019-10-01", "2019-10-03", "2019-10-07", "2019-10-09", "2019-10-11", "2019-10-15", "2019-10-17", "2019-10-21", "2019-10-23", "2019-10-25", "2019-10-29", "2019-10-31", "2019-11-04", "2019-11-06", "2019-11-08", "2019-11-12", "2019-11-14", "2019-11-18", "2019-11-20", "2019-11-22", "2019-11-26", "2019-11-29", "2019-12-03", "2019-12-05", "2019-12-09", "2019-12-11", "2019-12-13", "2019-12-17", "2019-12-19", "2019-12-23", "2019-12-26", "2019-12-30", 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history:** R\u00b2 = 0.30, alpha = +1.5% (t = +1.7).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.06, `vblix` +0.05, `hyg` -0.01, `fxe` -0.01, `vmbix` -0.01, `pff` +0.01 - net cash +0.93.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.10", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["VMBIX -0.05", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["VEA -0.02", "Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard)", "developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter"], ["VBLIX +0.35", "VIX futures (pure vol axis)", "crash insurance / short-vol funding; positive loading = long-vol (rises in panic), negative = short-vol carry"], ["TLT -0.23", "20+ year Treasuries (long duration)", "levered duration: big moves on rate expectations, steepener/bull-steepener exposure"], ["AGG -0.13", "Aggregate bonds (Treasuries + IG credit)", "the core bond market: ~60% Treasuries, IG corporates, MBS; moderate duration"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.02 \u2192 ~98% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.11 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["SCFZX (this fund)", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"], ["SHRIX", "+67.7%", "+4.0%", "-19.7%", "0.00", "+6.2% (t=+3.1)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 127pp."}}, "egrix": {"meta": {"sym": "egrix", "name": "Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Advantage Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 2, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+59.7%", "cagr": "+5.6%", "mdd": "-14.2%", "r2_5y": "0.07", "alpha_5y": "+5.2% (t=+3.2)"}, "narrative": ["EGRIX is the Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Advantage Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Fund/ETF holdings. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster with 90 other funds.", "Since 2010 it has compounded at +5.6% per year (a +138% total return) with +4% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 14%. Over the last five years it returned +59.7% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +18.9%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2025 tariff crash' (+0.2%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-6.2%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.07). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +5.2% per year over the last five years (t = 3.2) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +5.1% per year (t = 3.6). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Fund/ETF holdings - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 93% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 54% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance. 100% of NAV in ONE managed portfolio - underlying positions not disclosed in the fund's NPORT.", "Account placement: not settled by the model - the sleeve model calls it MIXED, so the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter before choosing taxable vs IRA. Within its cluster the strongest alternative is ENIAX (5y +31.6%, alpha t = +3.7); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.22 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2010-09-01", "2010-09-07", "2010-09-10", "2010-09-15", "2010-09-20", "2010-09-23", "2010-09-28", "2010-10-01", "2010-10-06", "2010-10-11", "2010-10-14", "2010-10-19", "2010-10-22", "2010-10-27", "2010-11-01", "2010-11-04", "2010-11-09", "2010-11-12", "2010-11-17", "2010-11-22", "2010-11-26", "2010-12-01", "2010-12-06", "2010-12-09", "2010-12-14", "2010-12-17", "2010-12-22", "2010-12-28", "2010-12-31", "2011-01-05", "2011-01-10", "2011-01-13", "2011-01-19", "2011-01-24", "2011-01-27", "2011-02-01", "2011-02-04", "2011-02-09", "2011-02-14", "2011-02-17", "2011-02-23", "2011-02-28", "2011-03-03", "2011-03-08", "2011-03-11", "2011-03-16", "2011-03-21", "2011-03-24", "2011-03-29", "2011-04-01", "2011-04-06", "2011-04-11", "2011-04-14", "2011-04-19", "2011-04-25", "2011-04-28", "2011-05-03", "2011-05-06", "2011-05-11", "2011-05-16", "2011-05-19", "2011-05-24", "2011-05-27", "2011-06-02", 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= +3.2)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.17, alpha = +5.1% (t = +3.6).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `hyg` -0.05, `vweax` +0.04, `vwo` +0.04, `dbmf` +0.02, `lqd` -0.02, `vblix` +0.02 - net cash +0.91.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWO +0.06", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"], ["QQQ -0.04", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["VWEAX +0.12", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["TLT -0.02", "20+ year Treasuries (long duration)", "levered duration: big moves on rate expectations, steepener/bull-steepener exposure"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.12 \u2192 ~88% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.35 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Model says MIXED - the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter. _macro: 60% LTCG if section-1256 futures; OTC swaps -> STCG - check 1099; absolute-return: character varies - check 1099_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["EGRIX (this fund)", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["SHRIX", "+67.7%", "+4.0%", "-19.7%", "0.00", "+6.2% (t=+3.1)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 105pp."}}, "puls": {"meta": {"sym": "puls", "name": "PGIM Ultra Short Bond ETF", "group": "candidate", "order": 3, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+23.5%", "cagr": "+3.3%", "mdd": "-5.9%", "r2_5y": "0.16", "alpha_5y": "+0.8% (t=+2.9)"}, "narrative": ["PULS is the PGIM Ultra Short Bond ETF. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster with 90 other funds.", "Since 2018 it has compounded at +3.3% per year (a +32% total return) with +1% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 6%. Over the last five years it returned +23.5% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +3.9%. It was positive in 7 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2023 rate shock' (+1.4%) and worst in '2024 vol spike' (+0.3%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.16). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +0.8% per year over the last five years (t = 2.9) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +0.6% per year (t = 1.5).", "To be explicit about the limits: 84% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 53% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is ENIAX (5y +31.6%, alpha t = +3.7); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.10 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2018-04-10", "2018-04-12", "2018-04-16", "2018-04-18", "2018-04-20", "2018-04-24", "2018-04-26", "2018-04-30", "2018-05-02", "2018-05-04", "2018-05-08", "2018-05-10", "2018-05-14", "2018-05-16", "2018-05-18", "2018-05-22", "2018-05-24", "2018-05-29", "2018-05-31", "2018-06-04", "2018-06-06", "2018-06-08", "2018-06-12", "2018-06-14", "2018-06-18", "2018-06-20", "2018-06-22", "2018-06-26", "2018-06-28", "2018-07-02", "2018-07-05", "2018-07-09", "2018-07-11", "2018-07-13", "2018-07-17", "2018-07-19", "2018-07-23", "2018-07-25", "2018-07-27", "2018-07-31", "2018-08-02", "2018-08-06", "2018-08-08", "2018-08-10", "2018-08-14", "2018-08-16", "2018-08-20", "2018-08-22", "2018-08-24", "2018-08-28", "2018-08-30", "2018-09-04", "2018-09-06", "2018-09-10", "2018-09-12", "2018-09-14", "2018-09-18", "2018-09-20", "2018-09-24", "2018-09-26", "2018-09-28", "2018-10-02", "2018-10-04", "2018-10-08", 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"+0.5%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+0.5%"], ["2022", "+1.6%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "+0.1%"], ["2023", "+6.2%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+1.3%"], ["2024", "+6.1%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+0.9%"], ["2025", "+5.0%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+0.8%"], ["2026", "+2.2%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "-0.0%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.16, alpha = +0.8% (t = +2.9)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.24, alpha = +0.6% (t = +1.5).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vmbix` +0.01, `ief` +0.01, `agg` +0.01, `tip` +0.01, `shy` +0.01, `emb` +0.00 - net cash +0.96.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VMBIX +0.04", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.04 \u2192 ~96% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.13 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["PULS (this fund)", "+23.5%", "+3.3%", "-5.9%", "0.16", "+0.8% (t=+2.9)", "IRA"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 141pp; deeper drawdown than the calmest peer (-5.9% vs -14.2%)."}}, "aguax": {"meta": {"sym": "aguax", "name": "American Beacon Developing World Income Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 4, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+59.7%", "cagr": "+6.5%", "mdd": "-21.2%", "r2_5y": "0.30", "alpha_5y": "+4.9% (t=+2.8)"}, "narrative": ["AGUAX is the American Beacon Developing World Income Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Foreign sovereign and Cash/MMF (short-term). In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 2014 it has compounded at +6.5% per year (a +119% total return) with +5% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 21%. Over the last five years it returned +59.7% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +17.8%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (-0.8%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-18.4%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.30). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds, a small tilt to em sovereign/corporate carry - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +4.9% per year over the last five years (t = 2.8) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +4.5% per year (t = 3.1). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Foreign sovereign and Cash/MMF (short-term) - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 70% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 43% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.24 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2014-02-26", "2014-03-03", "2014-03-06", "2014-03-11", "2014-03-14", "2014-03-19", "2014-03-24", "2014-03-27", "2014-04-01", "2014-04-04", "2014-04-09", "2014-04-14", "2014-04-17", "2014-04-23", "2014-04-28", "2014-05-01", "2014-05-06", "2014-05-09", "2014-05-14", "2014-05-19", "2014-05-22", "2014-05-28", "2014-06-02", "2014-06-05", "2014-06-10", "2014-06-13", "2014-06-18", "2014-06-23", "2014-06-26", "2014-07-01", "2014-07-07", "2014-07-10", "2014-07-15", "2014-07-18", "2014-07-23", "2014-07-28", "2014-07-31", "2014-08-05", "2014-08-08", "2014-08-13", "2014-08-18", "2014-08-21", "2014-08-26", "2014-08-29", "2014-09-04", "2014-09-09", "2014-09-12", "2014-09-17", "2014-09-22", "2014-09-25", "2014-09-30", "2014-10-03", "2014-10-08", "2014-10-13", "2014-10-16", "2014-10-21", "2014-10-24", "2014-10-29", "2014-11-03", "2014-11-06", "2014-11-11", "2014-11-14", "2014-11-19", "2014-11-24", 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"drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.30, alpha = +4.9% (t = +2.8)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.30, alpha = +4.5% (t = +3.1).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.12, `emb` +0.11, `efa` +0.05, `vblix` +0.04, `pff` +0.04, `vwo` +0.03 - net cash +0.74.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.52", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["VWO +0.04", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"], ["QQQ -0.04", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["EFA +0.05", "Intl developed ex-US (MSCI EAFE)", "developed-market equities outside the US; same exposure as VEA via a different index provider"], ["IEF -0.06", "7-10 year Treasuries (core duration)", "the core rate bet: price moves when the Fed path changes"], ["GSG -0.02", "Broad commodities (SPDR)", "same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.49 \u2192 ~51% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.05 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["AGUAX (this fund)", "+59.7%", "+6.5%", "-21.2%", "0.30", "+4.9% (t=+2.8)", "IRA"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 92pp."}}, "rctix": {"meta": {"sym": "rctix", "name": "River Canyon Total Return Bond Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 5, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+30.6%", "cagr": "+5.5%", "mdd": "-10.9%", "r2_5y": "0.40", "alpha_5y": "+2.1% (t=+2.7)"}, "narrative": ["RCTIX is the River Canyon Total Return Bond Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly ABS other (CLO/CMBS/AB) and Corporate bond. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 2015 it has compounded at +5.5% per year (a +87% total return) with +4% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 11%. Over the last five years it returned +30.6% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.3%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+1.4%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-5.6%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.40). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.1% per year over the last five years (t = 2.7) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.5% per year (t = 2.6). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from ABS other (CLO/CMBS/AB) and Corporate bond - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 60% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 48% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.10 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2015-01-07", "2015-01-09", "2015-01-13", "2015-01-15", "2015-01-20", "2015-01-22", "2015-01-26", "2015-01-28", "2015-01-30", "2015-02-03", "2015-02-05", "2015-02-09", "2015-02-11", "2015-02-13", "2015-02-18", "2015-02-20", "2015-02-24", "2015-02-26", "2015-03-02", "2015-03-04", "2015-03-06", "2015-03-10", "2015-03-12", "2015-03-16", "2015-03-18", "2015-03-20", "2015-03-24", "2015-03-26", "2015-03-30", "2015-04-01", "2015-04-06", "2015-04-08", "2015-04-10", "2015-04-14", "2015-04-16", "2015-04-20", "2015-04-22", "2015-04-24", "2015-04-28", "2015-04-30", "2015-05-04", "2015-05-06", "2015-05-08", "2015-05-12", "2015-05-14", "2015-05-18", "2015-05-20", "2015-05-22", "2015-05-27", "2015-05-29", "2015-06-02", "2015-06-04", "2015-06-08", "2015-06-10", "2015-06-12", "2015-06-16", "2015-06-18", "2015-06-22", "2015-06-24", "2015-06-26", "2015-06-30", "2015-07-02", "2015-07-07", "2015-07-09", 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770.7185962217277, 753.2539760920974, 746.204477374851, 731.6175305238098, 743.9803742064752, 770.6929619814466, 805.3990946915524, 809.8249135200988, 817.4232344841527, 836.5714255698672, 838.2424227975112, 845.7955555452916, 860.337383235379, 838.4794183902876, 856.229333214513, 834.4826119610877, 847.784251393242, 847.9766813996756, 858.5387683809412, 850.0936175043507, 829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+87.4%", "+25.0%", "+357.3%", "+62.4%"], ["Last 5y", "+30.6%", "+19.2%", "+123.7%", "+11.5%"], ["Last 1y", "+4.3%", "+3.6%", "+20.7%", "+0.7%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-5.6%", "+0.6%", "-24.5%", "-6.2%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-0.1%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-1.4%"], ["2024 vol spike", "+1.5%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "+1.2%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "+0.1%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-0.5%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "+0.1%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-0.5%"], ["2021", "+4.2%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+4.3%"], ["2022", "-4.4%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-5.8%"], ["2023", "+9.8%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+4.9%"], ["2024", "+7.6%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+2.4%"], ["2025", "+7.6%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+3.5%"], ["2026", "+2.6%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "+0.3%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.40, alpha = +2.1% (t = +2.7)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.18, alpha = +2.5% (t = +2.6).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vmbix` +0.04, `ief` +0.03, `tip` +0.03, `vweax` +0.03, `agg` +0.03, `shy` +0.02 - net cash +0.75.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VMBIX +0.22", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["VWEAX +0.09", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.30 \u2192 ~70% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.13 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["RCTIX (this fund)", "+30.6%", "+5.5%", "-10.9%", "0.40", "+2.1% (t=+2.7)", "IRA"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 121pp."}}, "rpifx": {"meta": {"sym": "rpifx", "name": "T. Rowe Price Institutional Floating Rate Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 6, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+39.5%", "cagr": "+5.2%", "mdd": "-22.5%", "r2_5y": "0.45", "alpha_5y": "+2.1% (t=+2.5)"}, "narrative": ["RPIFX is the T. Rowe Price Institutional Floating Rate Fund. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 2008 it has compounded at +5.2% per year (a +157% total return) with +4% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 23%. Over the last five years it returned +39.5% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.4%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2023 rate shock' (+1.1%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-3.0%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.45). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.1% per year over the last five years (t = 2.5) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.2% per year (t = 2.2).", "To be explicit about the limits: 55% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 52% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.27 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2008-02-01", "2008-02-07", "2008-02-13", "2008-02-20", "2008-02-26", "2008-03-03", "2008-03-07", "2008-03-13", "2008-03-19", "2008-03-26", "2008-04-01", "2008-04-07", "2008-04-11", "2008-04-17", "2008-04-23", "2008-04-29", "2008-05-05", "2008-05-09", "2008-05-15", "2008-05-21", "2008-05-28", "2008-06-03", "2008-06-09", "2008-06-13", "2008-06-19", "2008-06-25", "2008-07-01", "2008-07-08", "2008-07-14", "2008-07-18", "2008-07-24", "2008-07-30", "2008-08-05", "2008-08-11", "2008-08-15", "2008-08-21", "2008-08-27", "2008-09-03", "2008-09-09", "2008-09-15", "2008-09-19", "2008-09-25", "2008-10-01", "2008-10-07", "2008-10-13", "2008-10-17", "2008-10-23", "2008-10-29", "2008-11-04", "2008-11-10", "2008-11-14", "2008-11-20", "2008-11-26", "2008-12-03", "2008-12-09", "2008-12-15", "2008-12-19", "2008-12-26", "2009-01-02", "2009-01-08", "2009-01-14", "2009-01-21", "2009-01-27", "2009-02-02", 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"+2.3%", "+12.4%", "-0.0%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.45, alpha = +2.1% (t = +2.5)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.55, alpha = +2.2% (t = +2.2).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.11, `vblix` +0.07, `pff` +0.02, `fxe` -0.01, `vwo` +0.01, `xlp` -0.01 - net cash +0.82.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.45", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["VMBIX -0.10", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["FXE -0.03", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"], ["IWM -0.01", "US small cap (Russell 2000)", "small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.31 \u2192 ~69% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.07 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["RPIFX (this fund)", "+39.5%", "+5.2%", "-22.5%", "0.45", "+2.1% (t=+2.5)", "IRA"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 112pp."}}, "wmnux": {"meta": {"sym": "wmnux", "name": "Westwood Alternative Income Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 7, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+30.2%", "cagr": "+4.5%", "mdd": "-7.6%", "r2_5y": "0.38", "alpha_5y": "+1.4% (t=+2.4)"}, "narrative": ["WMNUX is the Westwood Alternative Income Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Corporate bond and Cash/MMF (short-term). In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster with 90 other funds.", "Since 2015 it has compounded at +4.5% per year (a +65% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 8%. Over the last five years it returned +30.2% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +6.9%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+0.5%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-2.6%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.38). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +1.4% per year over the last five years (t = 2.4) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +3.0% per year (t = 3.9). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Corporate bond and Cash/MMF (short-term) - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 62% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 49% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is ENIAX (5y +31.6%, alpha t = +3.7); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.09 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2015-05-01", "2015-05-05", "2015-05-07", "2015-05-11", "2015-05-13", "2015-05-15", "2015-05-19", "2015-05-21", "2015-05-26", "2015-05-28", "2015-06-01", "2015-06-03", "2015-06-05", "2015-06-09", "2015-06-11", "2015-06-15", "2015-06-17", "2015-06-19", "2015-06-23", "2015-06-25", "2015-06-29", "2015-07-01", "2015-07-06", "2015-07-08", "2015-07-10", "2015-07-14", "2015-07-16", "2015-07-20", "2015-07-22", "2015-07-24", "2015-07-28", "2015-07-30", "2015-08-03", "2015-08-05", "2015-08-07", "2015-08-11", "2015-08-13", "2015-08-17", "2015-08-19", "2015-08-21", "2015-08-25", "2015-08-27", "2015-08-31", "2015-09-02", "2015-09-04", "2015-09-09", "2015-09-11", "2015-09-15", "2015-09-17", "2015-09-21", "2015-09-23", "2015-09-25", "2015-09-29", "2015-10-01", "2015-10-05", "2015-10-07", "2015-10-09", "2015-10-13", "2015-10-15", "2015-10-19", "2015-10-21", "2015-10-23", "2015-10-27", "2015-10-29", 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"+337.2%", "+40.0%"], ["Last 5y", "+30.2%", "+19.2%", "+123.7%", "+11.1%"], ["Last 1y", "+6.9%", "+3.6%", "+20.7%", "+3.3%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-2.7%", "+0.6%", "-24.5%", "-3.3%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-0.2%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-1.6%"], ["2024 vol spike", "+0.4%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "+0.1%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "+0.1%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-0.4%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "+0.0%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-0.6%"], ["2021", "+3.2%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+3.3%"], ["2022", "-1.2%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-2.6%"], ["2023", "+6.8%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+1.9%"], ["2024", "+6.4%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+1.2%"], ["2025", "+7.7%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+3.6%"], ["2026", "+4.3%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "+2.0%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.38, alpha = +1.4% (t = +2.4)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.18, alpha = +3.0% (t = +3.9).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.03, `iwm` +0.02, `vmbix` +0.01, `tip` +0.01, `pff` +0.01, `xlp` -0.01 - net cash +0.87.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.11", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["IWM +0.03", "US small cap (Russell 2000)", "small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window"], ["FXE +0.02", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"], ["VMBIX +0.03", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["VNQ -0.01", "US REITs", "physical real estate: rents vs rates, leverage in the property sector; equity-like income"], ["VWO +0.01", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.18 \u2192 ~82% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.18 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["WMNUX (this fund)", "+30.2%", "+4.5%", "-7.6%", "0.38", "+1.4% (t=+2.4)", "IRA"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 134pp; deeper drawdown than the calmest peer (-7.6% vs -14.2%)."}}, "prfrx": {"meta": {"sym": "prfrx", "name": "T. Rowe Price Floating Rate Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 8, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+38.1%", "cagr": "+4.4%", "mdd": "-20.0%", "r2_5y": "0.46", "alpha_5y": "+1.9% (t=+2.3)"}, "narrative": ["PRFRX is the T. Rowe Price Floating Rate Fund. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 2011 it has compounded at +4.4% per year (a +91% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 20%. Over the last five years it returned +38.1% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.4%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2023 rate shock' (+1.0%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-3.1%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.46). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +1.9% per year over the last five years (t = 2.3) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.0% per year (t = 2.0).", "To be explicit about the limits: 54% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 52% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.27 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2011-08-01", "2011-08-04", "2011-08-09", "2011-08-12", "2011-08-17", "2011-08-22", "2011-08-25", "2011-08-30", "2011-09-02", "2011-09-08", "2011-09-13", "2011-09-16", "2011-09-21", "2011-09-26", "2011-09-29", "2011-10-04", "2011-10-07", "2011-10-12", "2011-10-17", "2011-10-20", "2011-10-25", "2011-10-28", "2011-11-02", "2011-11-07", "2011-11-10", "2011-11-15", "2011-11-18", "2011-11-23", "2011-11-29", "2011-12-02", "2011-12-07", "2011-12-12", "2011-12-15", "2011-12-20", "2011-12-23", "2011-12-29", "2012-01-04", "2012-01-09", "2012-01-12", "2012-01-18", "2012-01-23", "2012-01-26", "2012-01-31", "2012-02-03", "2012-02-08", "2012-02-13", "2012-02-16", "2012-02-22", "2012-02-27", "2012-03-01", "2012-03-06", "2012-03-09", "2012-03-14", "2012-03-19", "2012-03-22", "2012-03-27", "2012-03-30", "2012-04-04", "2012-04-10", "2012-04-13", "2012-04-18", "2012-04-23", "2012-04-26", "2012-05-01", 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782.463108384158, 784.6925310762523, 775.0650240738165, 786.7532233211904, 776.1572799883932, 782.6432386193211, 774.3443627584163, 779.6704218270236, 770.7185962217277, 753.2539760920974, 746.204477374851, 731.6175305238098, 743.9803742064752, 770.6929619814466, 805.3990946915524, 809.8249135200988, 817.4232344841527, 836.5714255698672, 838.2424227975112, 845.7955555452916, 860.337383235379, 838.4794183902876, 856.229333214513, 834.4826119610877, 847.784251393242, 847.9766813996756, 858.5387683809412, 850.0936175043507, 829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+90.9%", "+24.7%", "+674.8%", "+66.2%"], ["Last 5y", "+38.1%", "+19.2%", "+123.7%", "+18.9%"], ["Last 1y", "+4.4%", "+3.6%", "+20.7%", "+0.7%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-3.0%", "+0.6%", "-24.5%", "-3.6%"], ["2023 rate shock", "+1.0%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-0.4%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-0.0%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "-0.3%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-1.7%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-2.3%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-0.8%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-1.4%"], ["2021", "+4.5%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+4.6%"], ["2022", "-0.7%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-2.1%"], ["2023", "+12.2%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+7.3%"], ["2024", "+8.8%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+3.6%"], ["2025", "+6.5%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+2.3%"], ["2026", "+2.1%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "-0.2%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.46, alpha = +1.9% (t = +2.3)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.49, alpha = +2.0% (t = +2.0).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.11, `vblix` +0.07, `pff` +0.02, `fxe` -0.01, `vwo` +0.01, `iwm` -0.01 - net cash +0.83.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.46", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["VMBIX -0.11", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["IWM -0.01", "US small cap (Russell 2000)", "small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window"], ["FXE -0.03", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.31 \u2192 ~69% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.15 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["PRFRX (this fund)", "+38.1%", "+4.4%", "-20.0%", "0.46", "+1.9% (t=+2.3)", "IRA"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 113pp."}}, "femdx": {"meta": {"sym": "femdx", "name": "Franklin Emerging Market Debt Opportunities Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 9, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+52.0%", "cagr": "+6.9%", "mdd": "-31.8%", "r2_5y": "0.32", "alpha_5y": "+4.6% (t=+2.3)"}, "narrative": ["FEMDX is the Franklin Emerging Market Debt Opportunities Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Foreign sovereign and Corporate bond. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 2006 it has compounded at +6.9% per year (a +287% total return) with +5% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 32%. Over the last five years it returned +52.0% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +17.0%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (-0.6%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-16.0%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.32). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to em sovereign/corporate carry, a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +4.6% per year over the last five years (t = 2.3) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +3.9% per year (t = 2.3). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Foreign sovereign and Corporate bond - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 68% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 41% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE (defers to LTCG)). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.28 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2006-05-31", "2006-06-06", "2006-06-12", "2006-06-16", "2006-06-22", "2006-06-28", "2006-07-05", "2006-07-11", "2006-07-17", "2006-07-21", "2006-07-27", "2006-08-02", "2006-08-08", "2006-08-14", "2006-08-18", "2006-08-24", "2006-08-30", "2006-09-06", "2006-09-12", "2006-09-18", "2006-09-22", "2006-09-28", "2006-10-04", "2006-10-10", "2006-10-16", "2006-10-20", "2006-10-26", "2006-11-01", "2006-11-07", "2006-11-13", "2006-11-17", "2006-11-24", "2006-11-30", "2006-12-06", "2006-12-12", "2006-12-18", "2006-12-22", "2006-12-29", "2007-01-08", "2007-01-12", "2007-01-19", "2007-01-25", "2007-01-31", "2007-02-06", "2007-02-12", "2007-02-16", "2007-02-23", "2007-03-01", "2007-03-07", "2007-03-13", "2007-03-19", "2007-03-23", "2007-03-29", "2007-04-04", "2007-04-11", "2007-04-17", "2007-04-23", "2007-04-27", "2007-05-03", "2007-05-09", "2007-05-15", "2007-05-21", "2007-05-25", "2007-06-01", 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1y", "+17.0%", "+3.6%", "+20.7%", "+13.4%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-16.1%", "+0.6%", "-24.5%", "-16.7%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-2.9%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-4.2%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-0.7%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "-1.0%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-4.1%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-4.7%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-2.0%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-2.6%"], ["2021", "+1.3%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+1.4%"], ["2022", "-8.9%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-10.3%"], ["2023", "+15.2%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+10.3%"], ["2024", "+12.1%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+7.0%"], ["2025", "+15.3%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+11.2%"], ["2026", "+10.2%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "+7.9%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.32, alpha = +4.6% (t = +2.3)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.37, alpha = +3.9% (t = +2.3).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `emb` +0.13, `vweax` +0.10, `efa` +0.06, `vwo` +0.06, `fxe` +0.04, `vblix` +0.04 - net cash +0.68.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.42", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["VWO +0.08", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"], ["FXE +0.05", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"], ["GSG -0.03", "Broad commodities (SPDR)", "same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund"], ["QQQ -0.05", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["EFA +0.07", "Intl developed ex-US (MSCI EAFE)", "developed-market equities outside the US; same exposure as VEA via a different index provider"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.53 \u2192 ~47% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.06 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account (income mostly defers to the LTCG/ROC rate). _~100% of 5y return defers to the investor (price appreciation + return of capital) - taxed as YOUR LTCG on a >1y sale, not ordinary income as in a traditional IRA._", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["FEMDX (this fund)", "+52.0%", "+6.9%", "-31.8%", "0.32", "+4.6% (t=+2.3)", "TAXABLE (defers to LTCG)"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 99pp."}}, "etsix": {"meta": {"sym": "etsix", "name": "Eaton Vance Strategic Income Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 10, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+31.4%", "cagr": "+5.2%", "mdd": "-12.6%", "r2_5y": "0.38", "alpha_5y": "+2.4% (t=+2.3)"}, "narrative": ["ETSIX is the Eaton Vance Strategic Income Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Fund/ETF holdings. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 1998 it has compounded at +5.2% per year (a +327% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 13%. Over the last five years it returned +31.4% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +7.2%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+0.6%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-5.4%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.38). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.4% per year over the last five years (t = 2.3) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +1.7% per year (t = 2.6). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Fund/ETF holdings - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 62% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 47% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.17 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["1998-01-23", "1998-01-30", "1998-02-06", "1998-02-13", "1998-02-23", "1998-03-02", "1998-03-09", "1998-03-16", "1998-03-23", "1998-03-30", "1998-04-06", "1998-04-14", "1998-04-21", "1998-04-28", "1998-05-05", "1998-05-12", "1998-05-19", "1998-05-27", "1998-06-03", "1998-06-10", "1998-06-17", "1998-06-24", "1998-07-01", "1998-07-09", "1998-07-16", "1998-07-23", "1998-07-30", "1998-08-06", "1998-08-13", "1998-08-20", "1998-08-27", "1998-09-03", "1998-09-11", "1998-09-18", "1998-09-25", "1998-10-02", "1998-10-09", "1998-10-16", "1998-10-23", "1998-10-30", "1998-11-06", "1998-11-13", "1998-11-20", "1998-11-30", "1998-12-07", "1998-12-14", "1998-12-21", "1998-12-29", "1999-01-06", "1999-01-13", "1999-01-21", "1999-01-28", "1999-02-04", "1999-02-11", "1999-02-19", "1999-02-26", "1999-03-05", "1999-03-12", "1999-03-19", "1999-03-26", "1999-04-05", "1999-04-12", "1999-04-19", "1999-04-26", 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"+1.6%"], ["2025", "+12.1%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+8.0%"], ["2026", "+3.3%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "+1.1%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.38, alpha = +2.4% (t = +2.3)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.30, alpha = +1.7% (t = +2.6).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vmbix` +0.05, `vweax` +0.04, `ief` +0.03, `agg` +0.03, `vwo` +0.02, `tip` +0.02 - net cash +0.71.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VMBIX +0.21", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["VEA +0.04", "Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard)", "developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter"], ["QQQ -0.03", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["VWEAX +0.11", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["VWO +0.03", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"], ["GSG -0.01", "Broad commodities (SPDR)", "same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.34 \u2192 ~66% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.13 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["ETSIX (this fund)", "+31.4%", "+5.2%", "-12.6%", "0.38", "+2.4% (t=+2.3)", "IRA"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 120pp."}}, "hicox": {"meta": {"sym": "hicox", "name": "COLORADO BONDSHARES A TAX EXEMPT FUND", "group": "candidate", "order": 11, "verdict": "CANDIDATE (semi-alpha: mostly explained by net exposure)", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+23.9%", "cagr": "+5.7%", "mdd": "-8.4%", "r2_5y": "0.26", "alpha_5y": "+1.4% (t=+1.2)"}, "narrative": ["HICOX is the COLORADO BONDSHARES A TAX EXEMPT FUND. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Municipal bond and Corporate bond. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 1987 it has compounded at +5.7% per year (a +774% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 8%. Over the last five years it returned +23.9% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +5.8%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+1.1%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-6.6%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.26). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +1.4% per year over the last five years (t = 1.2) - at that t-stat it is not yet clearly different from a lucky streak. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.6% per year (t = 4.4). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Municipal bond and Corporate bond - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 74% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way. The alpha is also not steady: in 46% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE (munis)). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.04 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["1987-06-04", "1987-06-15", "1987-06-24", "1987-07-06", "1987-07-15", "1987-07-24", "1987-08-04", "1987-08-13", "1987-08-24", "1987-09-02", "1987-09-14", "1987-09-23", "1987-10-02", "1987-10-13", "1987-10-22", "1987-11-02", "1987-11-11", "1987-11-20", "1987-12-02", "1987-12-11", "1987-12-22", "1988-01-04", "1988-01-13", "1988-01-22", "1988-02-02", "1988-02-11", "1988-02-23", "1988-03-03", "1988-03-14", "1988-03-23", "1988-04-04", "1988-04-13", "1988-04-22", "1988-05-03", "1988-05-12", "1988-05-23", "1988-06-02", "1988-06-13", "1988-06-22", "1988-07-01", "1988-07-13", "1988-07-22", "1988-08-02", "1988-08-11", "1988-08-22", "1988-08-31", "1988-09-12", "1988-09-21", "1988-09-30", "1988-10-11", "1988-10-20", "1988-10-31", "1988-11-09", "1988-11-18", "1988-11-30", "1988-12-09", "1988-12-20", "1988-12-30", "1989-01-11", "1989-01-20", "1989-01-31", "1989-02-09", "1989-02-21", "1989-03-02", "1989-03-13", "1989-03-22", "1989-04-03", "1989-04-12", "1989-04-21", "1989-05-02", "1989-05-11", "1989-05-22", "1989-06-01", "1989-06-12", "1989-06-21", "1989-06-30", "1989-07-12", "1989-07-21", "1989-08-01", "1989-08-10", "1989-08-21", "1989-08-30", "1989-09-11", "1989-09-20", "1989-09-29", "1989-10-10", "1989-10-19", "1989-10-30", "1989-11-08", "1989-11-17", "1989-11-29", "1989-12-08", "1989-12-19", "1989-12-29", "1990-01-10", "1990-01-19", "1990-01-30", "1990-02-08", "1990-02-20", "1990-03-01", "1990-03-12", "1990-03-21", "1990-03-30", "1990-04-10", "1990-04-20", "1990-05-01", "1990-05-10", "1990-05-21", "1990-05-31", "1990-06-11", "1990-06-20", "1990-06-29", "1990-07-11", "1990-07-20", "1990-07-31", "1990-08-09", "1990-08-20", "1990-08-29", "1990-09-10", "1990-09-19", "1990-09-28", "1990-10-09", "1990-10-18", "1990-10-29", "1990-11-07", "1990-11-16", "1990-11-28", "1990-12-07", "1990-12-18", "1990-12-28", "1991-01-09", "1991-01-18", "1991-01-29", "1991-02-07", "1991-02-19", "1991-02-28", "1991-03-11", "1991-03-20", "1991-04-01", "1991-04-10", "1991-04-19", "1991-04-30", "1991-05-09", "1991-05-20", "1991-05-30", "1991-06-10", "1991-06-19", "1991-06-28", "1991-07-10", "1991-07-19", "1991-07-30", "1991-08-08", "1991-08-19", "1991-08-28", "1991-09-09", "1991-09-18", "1991-09-27", "1991-10-08", "1991-10-17", "1991-10-28", "1991-11-06", "1991-11-15", "1991-11-26", "1991-12-06", "1991-12-17", "1991-12-27", "1992-01-08", "1992-01-17", "1992-01-28", "1992-02-06", "1992-02-18", "1992-02-27", "1992-03-09", "1992-03-18", "1992-03-27", "1992-04-07", "1992-04-16", "1992-04-28", "1992-05-07", "1992-05-18", "1992-05-28", "1992-06-08", "1992-06-17", "1992-06-26", "1992-07-08", "1992-07-17", "1992-07-28", "1992-08-06", "1992-08-17", "1992-08-26", "1992-09-04", "1992-09-16", "1992-09-25", "1992-10-06", "1992-10-15", "1992-10-26", "1992-11-04", "1992-11-13", "1992-11-24", "1992-12-04", "1992-12-15", "1992-12-24", "1993-01-06", "1993-01-15", "1993-01-26", "1993-02-04", "1993-02-16", "1993-02-25", "1993-03-08", "1993-03-17", "1993-03-26", "1993-04-06", "1993-04-16", "1993-04-27", "1993-05-06", "1993-05-17", "1993-05-26", "1993-06-07", "1993-06-16", "1993-06-25", "1993-07-07", "1993-07-16", "1993-07-27", "1993-08-05", "1993-08-16", "1993-08-25", "1993-09-03", "1993-09-15", "1993-09-24", "1993-10-05", "1993-10-14", "1993-10-25", "1993-11-03", "1993-11-12", "1993-11-23", "1993-12-03", "1993-12-14", "1993-12-23", "1994-01-04", "1994-01-13", "1994-01-24", "1994-02-02", "1994-02-11", "1994-02-23", "1994-03-04", "1994-03-15", "1994-03-24", "1994-04-05", "1994-04-14", "1994-04-25", "1994-05-05", "1994-05-16", "1994-05-25", "1994-06-06", "1994-06-15", "1994-06-24", "1994-07-06", "1994-07-15", "1994-07-26", "1994-08-04", "1994-08-15", "1994-08-24", "1994-09-02", "1994-09-14", "1994-09-23", "1994-10-04", "1994-10-13", "1994-10-24", "1994-11-02", "1994-11-11", "1994-11-22", "1994-12-02", "1994-12-13", "1994-12-22", "1995-01-04", "1995-01-13", "1995-01-24", "1995-02-02", "1995-02-13", "1995-02-23", "1995-03-06", "1995-03-15", "1995-03-24", "1995-04-04", "1995-04-13", "1995-04-25", "1995-05-04", "1995-05-15", "1995-05-24", "1995-06-05", "1995-06-14", "1995-06-23", "1995-07-05", "1995-07-14", "1995-07-25", "1995-08-03", "1995-08-14", "1995-08-23", "1995-09-01", "1995-09-13", "1995-09-22", "1995-10-03", "1995-10-12", "1995-10-23", "1995-11-01", "1995-11-10", "1995-11-21", "1995-12-01", "1995-12-12", "1995-12-21", "1996-01-03", "1996-01-12", "1996-01-23", "1996-02-01", "1996-02-12", "1996-02-22", "1996-03-04", "1996-03-13", "1996-03-22", "1996-04-02", "1996-04-12", "1996-04-23", "1996-05-02", "1996-05-13", "1996-05-22", "1996-06-03", "1996-06-12", "1996-06-21", "1996-07-02", "1996-07-12", "1996-07-23", "1996-08-01", "1996-08-12", "1996-08-21", "1996-08-30", "1996-09-11", "1996-09-20", "1996-10-01", "1996-10-10", "1996-10-21", "1996-10-30", "1996-11-08", "1996-11-19", "1996-11-29", "1996-12-10", "1996-12-19", "1996-12-31", "1997-01-10", "1997-01-21", "1997-01-30", "1997-02-10", "1997-02-20", "1997-03-03", "1997-03-12", "1997-03-21", "1997-04-02", "1997-04-11", "1997-04-22", "1997-05-01", "1997-05-12", "1997-05-21", "1997-06-02", "1997-06-11", "1997-06-20", "1997-07-01", "1997-07-11", "1997-07-22", "1997-07-31", "1997-08-11", "1997-08-20", "1997-08-29", "1997-09-10", "1997-09-19", "1997-09-30", "1997-10-09", "1997-10-20", "1997-10-29", "1997-11-07", "1997-11-18", "1997-11-28", "1997-12-09", "1997-12-18", "1997-12-30", "1998-01-09", "1998-01-21", "1998-01-30", "1998-02-10", "1998-02-20", "1998-03-03", "1998-03-12", "1998-03-23", "1998-04-01", "1998-04-13", "1998-04-22", "1998-05-01", "1998-05-12", "1998-05-21", "1998-06-02", "1998-06-11", "1998-06-22", "1998-07-01", "1998-07-13", "1998-07-22", "1998-07-31", "1998-08-11", "1998-08-20", "1998-08-31", "1998-09-10", "1998-09-21", "1998-09-30", "1998-10-09", "1998-10-20", "1998-10-29", "1998-11-09", "1998-11-18", "1998-11-30", "1998-12-09", "1998-12-18", "1998-12-30", "1999-01-11", "1999-01-21", "1999-02-01", "1999-02-10", "1999-02-22", "1999-03-03", "1999-03-12", "1999-03-23", "1999-04-01", "1999-04-13", "1999-04-22", "1999-05-03", "1999-05-12", "1999-05-21", "1999-06-02", "1999-06-11", "1999-06-22", "1999-07-01", "1999-07-13", "1999-07-22", "1999-08-02", "1999-08-11", "1999-08-20", "1999-08-31", "1999-09-10", "1999-09-21", "1999-09-30", "1999-10-11", "1999-10-20", "1999-10-29", "1999-11-09", "1999-11-18", "1999-11-30", "1999-12-09", "1999-12-20", "1999-12-30", "2000-01-10", "2000-01-20", "2000-01-31", "2000-02-09", "2000-02-18", "2000-03-01", "2000-03-10", "2000-03-21", "2000-03-30", "2000-04-10", "2000-04-19", "2000-05-01", "2000-05-10", "2000-05-19", "2000-05-31", "2000-06-09", "2000-06-20", "2000-06-29", "2000-07-11", "2000-07-20", "2000-07-31", "2000-08-09", "2000-08-18", "2000-08-29", "2000-09-08", "2000-09-19", "2000-09-28", "2000-10-09", "2000-10-18", "2000-10-27", "2000-11-07", "2000-11-16", "2000-11-28", "2000-12-07", "2000-12-18", "2000-12-28", "2001-01-09", "2001-01-19", "2001-01-30", "2001-02-08", "2001-02-20", "2001-03-01", "2001-03-12", "2001-03-21", "2001-03-30", "2001-04-10", "2001-04-20", "2001-05-01", "2001-05-10", "2001-05-21", "2001-05-31", "2001-06-11", "2001-06-20", "2001-06-29", "2001-07-11", "2001-07-20", "2001-07-31", "2001-08-09", "2001-08-20", "2001-08-29", "2001-09-10", "2001-09-25", "2001-10-04", "2001-10-15", "2001-10-24", "2001-11-02", "2001-11-13", "2001-11-23", "2001-12-04", "2001-12-13", "2001-12-24", "2002-01-04", "2002-01-15", "2002-01-25", "2002-02-05", "2002-02-14", "2002-02-26", "2002-03-07", "2002-03-18", "2002-03-27", "2002-04-08", "2002-04-17", "2002-04-26", "2002-05-07", "2002-05-16", "2002-05-28", "2002-06-06", "2002-06-17", "2002-06-26", "2002-07-08", "2002-07-17", "2002-07-26", "2002-08-06", "2002-08-15", "2002-08-26", "2002-09-05", "2002-09-16", "2002-09-25", "2002-10-04", "2002-10-15", "2002-10-24", "2002-11-04", "2002-11-13", "2002-11-22", "2002-12-04", "2002-12-13", "2002-12-24", "2003-01-06", "2003-01-15", "2003-01-27", "2003-02-05", "2003-02-14", "2003-02-26", "2003-03-07", "2003-03-18", "2003-03-27", "2003-04-07", "2003-04-16", "2003-04-28", "2003-05-07", "2003-05-16", "2003-05-28", "2003-06-06", "2003-06-17", "2003-06-26", "2003-07-08", "2003-07-17", "2003-07-28", "2003-08-06", "2003-08-15", "2003-08-26", "2003-09-05", "2003-09-16", "2003-09-25", "2003-10-06", "2003-10-15", "2003-10-24", "2003-11-04", "2003-11-13", "2003-11-24", "2003-12-04", "2003-12-15", "2003-12-24", "2004-01-06", "2004-01-15", "2004-01-27", "2004-02-05", "2004-02-17", "2004-02-26", "2004-03-08", "2004-03-17", "2004-03-26", "2004-04-06", "2004-04-16", "2004-04-27", "2004-05-06", "2004-05-17", "2004-05-26", "2004-06-07", "2004-06-17", "2004-06-28", "2004-07-08", "2004-07-19", "2004-07-28", "2004-08-06", "2004-08-17", "2004-08-26", "2004-09-07", "2004-09-16", "2004-09-27", "2004-10-06", "2004-10-15", "2004-10-26", "2004-11-04", "2004-11-15", "2004-11-24", "2004-12-06", "2004-12-15", "2004-12-27", "2005-01-05", "2005-01-14", "2005-01-26", "2005-02-04", "2005-02-15", "2005-02-25", "2005-03-08", "2005-03-17", "2005-03-29", "2005-04-07", "2005-04-18", "2005-04-27", "2005-05-06", "2005-05-17", "2005-05-26", "2005-06-07", "2005-06-16", "2005-06-27", "2005-07-07", "2005-07-18", "2005-07-27", "2005-08-05", "2005-08-16", "2005-08-25", "2005-09-06", "2005-09-15", "2005-09-26", "2005-10-05", "2005-10-14", "2005-10-25", "2005-11-03", "2005-11-14", "2005-11-23", "2005-12-05", "2005-12-14", "2005-12-23", "2006-01-05", "2006-01-17", "2006-01-26", "2006-02-06", "2006-02-15", "2006-02-27", "2006-03-08", "2006-03-17", "2006-03-28", "2006-04-06", "2006-04-18", "2006-04-27", "2006-05-08", "2006-05-17", "2006-05-26", "2006-06-07", "2006-06-16", "2006-06-27", "2006-07-07", "2006-07-18", "2006-07-27", "2006-08-07", "2006-08-16", "2006-08-25", "2006-09-06", "2006-09-15", "2006-09-26", "2006-10-05", "2006-10-16", "2006-10-25", "2006-11-03", "2006-11-14", "2006-11-24", "2006-12-05", "2006-12-14", "2006-12-26", "2007-01-08", "2007-01-18", "2007-01-29", "2007-02-07", "2007-02-16", "2007-02-28", "2007-03-09", "2007-03-20", "2007-03-29", "2007-04-10", "2007-04-19", "2007-04-30", "2007-05-09", "2007-05-18", "2007-05-30", "2007-06-08", "2007-06-19", "2007-06-28", "2007-07-10", "2007-07-19", "2007-07-30", "2007-08-08", "2007-08-17", "2007-08-28", "2007-09-07", "2007-09-18", "2007-09-27", "2007-10-08", "2007-10-17", "2007-10-26", "2007-11-06", "2007-11-15", "2007-11-27", "2007-12-06", "2007-12-17", "2007-12-27", "2008-01-08", "2008-01-17", "2008-01-29", "2008-02-07", "2008-02-19", "2008-02-28", "2008-03-10", "2008-03-19", "2008-03-31", "2008-04-09", "2008-04-18", "2008-04-29", "2008-05-08", "2008-05-19", "2008-05-29", "2008-06-09", "2008-06-18", "2008-06-27", "2008-07-09", "2008-07-18", "2008-07-29", "2008-08-07", "2008-08-18", "2008-08-27", "2008-09-08", "2008-09-17", "2008-09-26", "2008-10-07", "2008-10-16", "2008-10-27", "2008-11-05", "2008-11-14", 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829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+774.4%", "+30.2%", "+768.4%", "+744.2%"], ["Last 5y", "+23.9%", "+19.2%", "+123.7%", "+4.7%"], ["Last 1y", "+5.8%", "+3.6%", "+20.7%", "+2.1%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-6.6%", "+0.6%", "-24.5%", "-7.2%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-3.1%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-4.4%"], ["2024 vol spike", "+1.1%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "+0.8%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-1.8%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-2.3%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "+0.1%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-0.5%"], ["2021", "+4.8%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+4.9%"], ["2022", "-4.8%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-6.2%"], ["2023", "+7.0%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+2.1%"], ["2024", "+7.7%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+2.5%"], ["2025", "+5.3%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+1.2%"], ["2026", "+2.1%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "-0.2%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.26, alpha = +1.4% (t = +1.2)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.18, alpha = +2.6% (t = +4.4).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.05, `vmbix` +0.03, `pff` +0.03, `vblix` +0.03, `vnq` +0.02, `ief` +0.02 - net cash +0.77.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE (semi-alpha: mostly explained by net exposure)"], "reference": {"rows": [["VMBIX +0.16", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["VWEAX +0.19", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["IVV -0.04", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["VNQ +0.02", "US REITs", "physical real estate: rents vs rates, leverage in the property sector; equity-like income"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.33 \u2192 ~67% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 1.0 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account (munis - tax-exempt interest is wasted in an IRA). _tax-exempt interest - keep OUT of the IRA_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["HICOX (this fund)", "+23.9%", "+5.7%", "-8.4%", "0.26", "+1.4% (t=+1.2)", "TAXABLE (munis)"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 127pp."}}, "atesx": {"meta": {"sym": "atesx", "name": "Anchor Risk Mgd Equity Strategies Instl", "group": "shortlist", "order": 12, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund seeks to provide long-term growth of capital while providing current income."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+28.2%", "cagr": "+8.3%", "mdd": "-12.9%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["ATESX is the Anchor Risk Mgd Equity Strategies Instl. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks to provide long-term growth of capital while providing current income. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster.", "Since 2016 it has compounded at +8.3% per year (a +121% total return) with +11% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 13%. Over the last five years it returned +28.2% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.0%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.42). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to trend-following across futures, a small tilt to growth/tech-heavy us equities, a small tilt to the tech sector index - are minor tilts, not the story. Most of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic rather than benchmark-like. The honest five-year read of its excess return is -1.6% per year (t = -0.5): over the recent window this fund is NOT measurably adding to its fitted reference. Over the full history the same estimate is -0.6% per year (t = -0.2). The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.85 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 58% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: taxable (N-PORT holdings says TAXABLE)."], "chart": {"dates": ["2016-09-06", "2016-09-08", "2016-09-12", "2016-09-14", "2016-09-16", "2016-09-20", "2016-09-22", "2016-09-26", "2016-09-28", "2016-09-30", "2016-10-04", "2016-10-06", "2016-10-10", "2016-10-12", "2016-10-14", "2016-10-18", "2016-10-20", "2016-10-24", "2016-10-26", "2016-10-28", "2016-11-01", "2016-11-03", "2016-11-07", "2016-11-09", "2016-11-11", "2016-11-15", "2016-11-17", "2016-11-21", "2016-11-23", "2016-11-28", "2016-11-30", "2016-12-02", "2016-12-06", "2016-12-08", "2016-12-12", "2016-12-14", "2016-12-16", 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"-3.3%"], ["2021", "+12.6%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+12.7%"], ["2022", "-10.0%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-11.4%"], ["2023", "+8.2%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+3.3%"], ["2024", "+8.3%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+3.1%"], ["2025", "+5.6%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+1.5%"], ["2026", "+2.7%", "+2.3%", "+12.7%", "+0.4%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = -0.6% (t = -0.2).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `dbmf` +0.13, `qqq` +0.13, `xlk` +0.12, `iwm` +0.07, `ivv` +0.05, `tip` +0.05 - net cash +0.55.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.85 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Holdings (May 2026): QQQ 65% + SPY 29% + MMF 0.6%, with 4.9% 'other assets in excess of liabilities' \u2014 an options overlay. But the rolling beta to those SAME holdings stays 0.13\u20130.89 (median 0.30, never above 1): the 'risk managed' in the name is real \u2014 a systematic equity de-risking overlay. Decomposition: one TACTICAL US-equity sleeve, not a static mix.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["QQQ +0.45", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["IVV -0.22", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.22 \u2192 ~78% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 1.0 (from actual N-PORT holdings (high confidence)). Keep in the **taxable** account.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["ATESX (this fund)", "+28.2%", "+8.3%", "-12.9%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "TAXABLE"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 136pp; meaningfully more volatile than the calmest peer."}}, "atrfx": {"meta": {"sym": "atrfx", "name": "Catalyst Systematic Alpha I", "group": "shortlist", "order": 13, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund seeks to provide a total return that exceeds the BNP Paribas Catalyst Systematic Alpha Index II (the Benchmark )."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+47.5%", "cagr": "+5.0%", "mdd": "-35.2%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["ATRFX is the Catalyst Systematic Alpha I. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks to provide a total return that exceeds the BNP Paribas Catalyst Systematic Alpha Index II (the Benchmark ). Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster.", "Since 2014 it has compounded at +5.0% per year (a +80% total return) with +15% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 35%. Over the last five years it returned +47.5% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +7.0%. It was positive in 5 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.31). The loadings that do show up - exposure to trend-following across futures, exposure to international developed markets, a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds - are minor tilts, not the story. Most of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic rather than benchmark-like. The honest five-year read of its excess return is -5.0% per year (t = -0.8): over the recent window this fund is NOT measurably adding to its fitted reference. Over the full history the same estimate is +0.5% per year (t = 0.1). The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 1.83 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 69% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: IRA (N-PORT holdings says IRA)."], "chart": {"dates": ["2014-08-01", "2014-08-06", "2014-08-11", "2014-08-14", "2014-08-19", "2014-08-22", "2014-08-27", "2014-09-02", "2014-09-05", "2014-09-10", "2014-09-16", "2014-09-19", "2014-09-24", "2014-09-29", "2014-10-02", "2014-10-07", "2014-10-10", "2014-10-15", "2014-10-20", "2014-10-23", "2014-10-28", "2014-10-31", "2014-11-05", "2014-11-10", "2014-11-13", "2014-11-18", "2014-11-21", "2014-11-26", "2014-12-02", "2014-12-05", "2014-12-10", "2014-12-15", "2014-12-18", "2014-12-23", "2014-12-29", "2015-01-02", "2015-01-07", "2015-01-12", 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sleeves):** `dbmf` +0.17, `efa` +0.15, `vweax` +0.14, `xlp` -0.13, `fxy` -0.11, `dbb` +0.10 - net cash +0.52.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 1.83 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Systematic alpha over short-duration IG credit + cash. Returns are dominated by idiosyncratic credit/derivatives P&L (R\u00b2 \u2264 0.22 vs bond sleeves) and the best-fit weights are knife-edge. Read as: cash-like carry + systematic alpha, no meaningful static sleeve.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["IVV +0.17", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["VEA +0.41", "Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard)", "developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter"], ["FXY -0.26", "Long yen vs the dollar", "USD/JPY: carries the Japan rate differential; carry-trade crowding risk"], ["FXE -0.30", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"], ["GLD +0.13", "Gold", "crisis/inflation hedge; real-rate sensitive, no yield"], ["DJP -0.09", "Natural gas", "a single volatile commodity: winter/hedging cycles"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.07 \u2192 ~93% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.16 (from actual N-PORT holdings (high confidence)). Recommended account: **IRA**. _unclassified: US govt 18%; CTA/systematic: 60/40 if section-1256 regulated futures_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["ATRFX (this fund)", "+47.5%", "+5.0%", "-35.2%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "IRA"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 117pp; meaningfully more volatile than the calmest peer."}}, "cvsix": {"meta": {"sym": "cvsix", "name": "Calamos Market Neutral Income A", "group": "shortlist", "order": 14, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund's investment strategy can be characterized as market neutral because it seeks to achieve maximum current income while maintaining a low correlation to the fluctuations of the US equity market as a whole."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+30.1%", "cagr": "+5.5%", "mdd": "-20.8%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["CVSIX is the Calamos Market Neutral Income A. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment strategy can be characterized as market neutral because it seeks to achieve maximum current income while maintaining a low correlation to the fluctuations of the US equity market as a whole. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +1.98' cluster.", "Since 1990 it has compounded at +5.5% per year (a +590% total return) with +5% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 21%. Over the last five years it returned +30.1% versus +17.8% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +6.4%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The fit is strong: 75% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of -0.6% per year (t = -0.9) - is statistically indistinguishable from zero, i.e. the strategy is not clearly adding anything on top of the mix it owns. The curated decomposition's read: partially explainable \u2014 material active/timing residual. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.49 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 25% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE (defers to LTCG))."], "chart": {"dates": ["1990-08-31", "1990-09-12", "1990-09-21", "1990-10-02", "1990-10-11", "1990-10-22", "1990-10-31", "1990-11-09", "1990-11-20", "1990-11-30", "1990-12-11", "1990-12-20", "1991-01-02", "1991-01-11", "1991-01-22", "1991-01-31", "1991-02-11", "1991-02-21", "1991-03-04", "1991-03-13", "1991-03-22", "1991-04-03", "1991-04-12", "1991-04-23", "1991-05-02", "1991-05-13", "1991-05-22", "1991-06-03", "1991-06-12", "1991-06-21", "1991-07-02", "1991-07-12", "1991-07-23", "1991-08-01", "1991-08-12", "1991-08-21", "1991-08-30", "1991-09-11", "1991-09-20", "1991-10-01", "1991-10-10", "1991-10-21", "1991-10-30", "1991-11-08", "1991-11-19", "1991-11-29", "1991-12-10", "1991-12-19", "1991-12-31", "1992-01-10", "1992-01-21", "1992-01-30", "1992-02-10", "1992-02-20", "1992-03-02", "1992-03-11", "1992-03-20", "1992-03-31", "1992-04-09", "1992-04-21", "1992-04-30", "1992-05-11", "1992-05-20", "1992-06-01", "1992-06-10", "1992-06-19", "1992-06-30", "1992-07-10", "1992-07-21", "1992-07-30", "1992-08-10", "1992-08-19", "1992-08-28", "1992-09-09", "1992-09-18", "1992-09-29", "1992-10-08", "1992-10-19", "1992-10-28", "1992-11-06", "1992-11-17", "1992-11-27", "1992-12-08", "1992-12-17", "1992-12-29", "1993-01-08", "1993-01-19", "1993-01-28", "1993-02-08", "1993-02-18", "1993-03-01", "1993-03-10", "1993-03-19", "1993-03-30", "1993-04-08", "1993-04-20", "1993-04-29", "1993-05-10", "1993-05-19", "1993-05-28", "1993-06-09", "1993-06-18", "1993-06-29", "1993-07-09", "1993-07-20", "1993-07-29", "1993-08-09", "1993-08-18", "1993-08-27", "1993-09-08", "1993-09-17", "1993-09-28", "1993-10-07", "1993-10-18", "1993-10-27", "1993-11-05", "1993-11-16", "1993-11-26", "1993-12-07", "1993-12-16", "1993-12-28", "1994-01-06", "1994-01-17", "1994-01-26", "1994-02-04", "1994-02-15", "1994-02-25", "1994-03-08", "1994-03-17", "1994-03-28", "1994-04-07", "1994-04-18", "1994-04-28", "1994-05-09", "1994-05-18", "1994-05-27", "1994-06-08", "1994-06-17", "1994-06-28", "1994-07-08", "1994-07-19", "1994-07-28", "1994-08-08", "1994-08-17", "1994-08-26", "1994-09-07", "1994-09-16", "1994-09-27", "1994-10-06", "1994-10-17", "1994-10-26", "1994-11-04", "1994-11-15", "1994-11-25", "1994-12-06", "1994-12-15", "1994-12-27", "1995-01-06", "1995-01-17", "1995-01-26", "1995-02-06", "1995-02-15", "1995-02-27", "1995-03-08", "1995-03-17", "1995-03-28", "1995-04-06", "1995-04-18", "1995-04-27", "1995-05-08", "1995-05-17", "1995-05-26", "1995-06-07", "1995-06-16", "1995-06-27", "1995-07-07", "1995-07-18", "1995-07-27", "1995-08-07", "1995-08-16", "1995-08-25", "1995-09-06", "1995-09-15", "1995-09-26", "1995-10-05", "1995-10-16", "1995-10-25", "1995-11-03", "1995-11-14", "1995-11-24", "1995-12-05", "1995-12-14", "1995-12-26", "1996-01-05", "1996-01-16", "1996-01-25", "1996-02-05", "1996-02-14", "1996-02-26", "1996-03-06", "1996-03-15", "1996-03-26", "1996-04-04", "1996-04-16", "1996-04-25", "1996-05-06", "1996-05-15", "1996-05-24", "1996-06-05", "1996-06-14", "1996-06-25", "1996-07-05", "1996-07-16", "1996-07-25", "1996-08-05", "1996-08-14", "1996-08-23", "1996-09-04", "1996-09-13", "1996-09-24", "1996-10-03", "1996-10-14", "1996-10-23", "1996-11-01", "1996-11-12", "1996-11-21", "1996-12-03", "1996-12-12", "1996-12-23", "1997-01-03", "1997-01-14", "1997-01-23", "1997-02-03", "1997-02-12", "1997-02-24", "1997-03-05", "1997-03-14", "1997-03-25", "1997-04-04", "1997-04-15", "1997-04-24", "1997-05-05", "1997-05-14", "1997-05-23", "1997-06-04", "1997-06-13", "1997-06-24", "1997-07-03", "1997-07-15", "1997-07-24", "1997-08-04", "1997-08-13", "1997-08-22", "1997-09-03", "1997-09-12", "1997-09-23", "1997-10-02", "1997-10-13", "1997-10-22", "1997-10-31", "1997-11-11", "1997-11-20", "1997-12-02", "1997-12-11", "1997-12-22", "1998-01-02", "1998-01-13", "1998-01-23", "1998-02-03", "1998-02-12", "1998-02-24", "1998-03-05", "1998-03-16", "1998-03-25", "1998-04-03", "1998-04-15", "1998-04-24", "1998-05-05", "1998-05-14", "1998-05-26", "1998-06-04", "1998-06-15", "1998-06-24", "1998-07-06", "1998-07-15", "1998-07-24", "1998-08-04", "1998-08-13", "1998-08-24", "1998-09-02", "1998-09-14", "1998-09-23", "1998-10-02", "1998-10-13", "1998-10-22", "1998-11-02", "1998-11-11", "1998-11-20", "1998-12-02", "1998-12-11", "1998-12-22", "1999-01-04", "1999-01-13", "1999-01-25", "1999-02-03", "1999-02-12", "1999-02-24", "1999-03-05", "1999-03-16", "1999-03-25", "1999-04-06", "1999-04-15", "1999-04-26", "1999-05-05", "1999-05-14", "1999-05-25", "1999-06-04", "1999-06-15", "1999-06-24", "1999-07-06", "1999-07-15", "1999-07-26", "1999-08-04", "1999-08-13", "1999-08-24", "1999-09-02", "1999-09-14", "1999-09-23", "1999-10-04", "1999-10-13", "1999-10-22", "1999-11-02", "1999-11-11", "1999-11-22", "1999-12-02", "1999-12-13", "1999-12-22", "2000-01-03", "2000-01-12", "2000-01-24", "2000-02-02", "2000-02-11", "2000-02-23", "2000-03-03", "2000-03-14", "2000-03-23", "2000-04-03", "2000-04-12", "2000-04-24", "2000-05-03", "2000-05-12", "2000-05-23", "2000-06-02", "2000-06-13", "2000-06-22", "2000-07-03", "2000-07-13", "2000-07-24", "2000-08-02", "2000-08-11", "2000-08-22", "2000-08-31", "2000-09-12", "2000-09-21", "2000-10-02", "2000-10-11", "2000-10-20", "2000-10-31", "2000-11-09", "2000-11-20", "2000-11-30", "2000-12-11", "2000-12-20", "2001-01-02", "2001-01-11", "2001-01-23", "2001-02-01", "2001-02-12", "2001-02-22", "2001-03-05", "2001-03-14", "2001-03-23", "2001-04-03", "2001-04-12", "2001-04-24", "2001-05-03", "2001-05-14", "2001-05-23", "2001-06-04", "2001-06-13", "2001-06-22", "2001-07-03", "2001-07-13", "2001-07-24", "2001-08-02", "2001-08-13", "2001-08-22", "2001-08-31", "2001-09-18", "2001-09-27", "2001-10-08", "2001-10-17", "2001-10-26", "2001-11-06", "2001-11-15", "2001-11-27", "2001-12-06", "2001-12-17", "2001-12-27", "2002-01-08", "2002-01-17", "2002-01-29", "2002-02-07", "2002-02-19", "2002-02-28", "2002-03-11", "2002-03-20", "2002-04-01", "2002-04-10", "2002-04-19", "2002-04-30", "2002-05-09", "2002-05-20", "2002-05-30", "2002-06-10", "2002-06-19", "2002-06-28", "2002-07-10", "2002-07-19", "2002-07-30", "2002-08-08", "2002-08-19", "2002-08-28", "2002-09-09", "2002-09-18", "2002-09-27", "2002-10-08", "2002-10-17", "2002-10-28", "2002-11-06", "2002-11-15", "2002-11-26", "2002-12-06", "2002-12-17", "2002-12-27", "2003-01-08", "2003-01-17", "2003-01-29", "2003-02-07", "2003-02-19", "2003-02-28", "2003-03-11", "2003-03-20", "2003-03-31", "2003-04-09", "2003-04-21", "2003-04-30", "2003-05-09", "2003-05-20", "2003-05-30", "2003-06-10", "2003-06-19", "2003-06-30", "2003-07-10", "2003-07-21", "2003-07-30", "2003-08-08", "2003-08-19", "2003-08-28", "2003-09-09", "2003-09-18", "2003-09-29", "2003-10-08", "2003-10-17", "2003-10-28", "2003-11-06", "2003-11-17", "2003-11-26", "2003-12-08", "2003-12-17", "2003-12-29", "2004-01-08", "2004-01-20", "2004-01-29", "2004-02-09", "2004-02-19", "2004-03-01", "2004-03-10", "2004-03-19", "2004-03-30", "2004-04-08", "2004-04-20", "2004-04-29", "2004-05-10", "2004-05-19", "2004-05-28", "2004-06-09", "2004-06-21", "2004-06-30", "2004-07-12", "2004-07-21", "2004-07-30", "2004-08-10", "2004-08-19", "2004-08-30", "2004-09-09", "2004-09-20", "2004-09-29", "2004-10-08", "2004-10-19", "2004-10-28", "2004-11-08", "2004-11-17", "2004-11-29", "2004-12-08", "2004-12-17", "2004-12-29", "2005-01-07", "2005-01-19", "2005-01-28", "2005-02-08", "2005-02-17", "2005-03-01", "2005-03-10", "2005-03-21", "2005-03-31", "2005-04-11", "2005-04-20", "2005-04-29", "2005-05-10", "2005-05-19", "2005-05-31", "2005-06-09", "2005-06-20", "2005-06-29", "2005-07-11", "2005-07-20", "2005-07-29", "2005-08-09", "2005-08-18", "2005-08-29", "2005-09-08", "2005-09-19", "2005-09-28", "2005-10-07", "2005-10-18", "2005-10-27", "2005-11-07", "2005-11-16", "2005-11-28", "2005-12-07", "2005-12-16", "2005-12-28", "2006-01-09", "2006-01-19", "2006-01-30", "2006-02-08", "2006-02-17", "2006-03-01", "2006-03-10", "2006-03-21", "2006-03-30", "2006-04-10", "2006-04-20", "2006-05-01", "2006-05-10", "2006-05-19", "2006-05-31", "2006-06-09", "2006-06-20", "2006-06-29", "2006-07-11", "2006-07-20", "2006-07-31", "2006-08-09", "2006-08-18", "2006-08-29", "2006-09-08", "2006-09-19", "2006-09-28", "2006-10-09", "2006-10-18", "2006-10-27", "2006-11-07", "2006-11-16", "2006-11-28", "2006-12-07", "2006-12-18", "2006-12-28", "2007-01-10", "2007-01-22", "2007-01-31", "2007-02-09", "2007-02-21", "2007-03-02", "2007-03-13", "2007-03-22", "2007-04-02", "2007-04-12", "2007-04-23", "2007-05-02", "2007-05-11", "2007-05-22", "2007-06-01", "2007-06-12", "2007-06-21", "2007-07-02", "2007-07-12", "2007-07-23", "2007-08-01", "2007-08-10", "2007-08-21", "2007-08-30", "2007-09-11", "2007-09-20", "2007-10-01", "2007-10-10", "2007-10-19", "2007-10-30", "2007-11-08", "2007-11-19", "2007-11-29", "2007-12-10", "2007-12-19", "2007-12-31", "2008-01-10", "2008-01-22", "2008-01-31", "2008-02-11", "2008-02-21", "2008-03-03", "2008-03-12", "2008-03-24", "2008-04-02", "2008-04-11", "2008-04-22", "2008-05-01", "2008-05-12", "2008-05-21", "2008-06-02", "2008-06-11", "2008-06-20", "2008-07-01", "2008-07-11", "2008-07-22", "2008-07-31", "2008-08-11", "2008-08-20", "2008-08-29", "2008-09-10", "2008-09-19", "2008-09-30", "2008-10-09", "2008-10-20", "2008-10-29", "2008-11-07", "2008-11-18", "2008-11-28", "2008-12-09", "2008-12-18", "2008-12-30", "2009-01-09", "2009-01-21", "2009-01-30", "2009-02-10", "2009-02-20", "2009-03-03", "2009-03-12", "2009-03-23", "2009-04-01", "2009-04-13", "2009-04-22", "2009-05-01", "2009-05-12", "2009-05-21", "2009-06-02", "2009-06-11", "2009-06-22", "2009-07-01", "2009-07-13", "2009-07-22", "2009-07-31", "2009-08-11", "2009-08-20", "2009-08-31", "2009-09-10", "2009-09-21", "2009-09-30", "2009-10-09", "2009-10-20", "2009-10-29", "2009-11-09", "2009-11-18", "2009-11-30", "2009-12-09", "2009-12-18", "2009-12-30", "2010-01-11", "2010-01-21", "2010-02-01", "2010-02-10", "2010-02-22", "2010-03-03", "2010-03-12", "2010-03-23", "2010-04-01", "2010-04-13", "2010-04-22", "2010-05-03", "2010-05-12", "2010-05-21", "2010-06-02", "2010-06-11", "2010-06-22", "2010-07-01", "2010-07-13", "2010-07-22", "2010-08-02", "2010-08-11", "2010-08-20", "2010-08-31", "2010-09-10", "2010-09-21", "2010-09-30", "2010-10-11", "2010-10-20", "2010-10-29", "2010-11-09", "2010-11-18", "2010-11-30", "2010-12-09", "2010-12-20", "2010-12-30", "2011-01-10", "2011-01-20", "2011-01-31", "2011-02-09", "2011-02-18", "2011-03-02", "2011-03-11", "2011-03-22", "2011-03-31", "2011-04-11", "2011-04-20", "2011-05-02", "2011-05-11", "2011-05-20", "2011-06-01", "2011-06-10", "2011-06-21", "2011-06-30", "2011-07-12", "2011-07-21", "2011-08-01", "2011-08-10", "2011-08-19", "2011-08-30", "2011-09-09", "2011-09-20", "2011-09-29", "2011-10-10", "2011-10-19", "2011-10-28", "2011-11-08", "2011-11-17", "2011-11-29", "2011-12-08", "2011-12-19", "2011-12-29", "2012-01-10", "2012-01-20", "2012-01-31", "2012-02-09", "2012-02-21", "2012-03-01", "2012-03-12", "2012-03-21", "2012-03-30", "2012-04-11", "2012-04-20", "2012-05-01", "2012-05-10", "2012-05-21", "2012-05-31", "2012-06-11", "2012-06-20", "2012-06-29", "2012-07-11", "2012-07-20", "2012-07-31", "2012-08-09", "2012-08-20", "2012-08-29", "2012-09-10", "2012-09-19", "2012-09-28", "2012-10-09", "2012-10-18", "2012-10-31", "2012-11-09", "2012-11-20", "2012-11-30", "2012-12-11", "2012-12-20", "2013-01-02", "2013-01-11", "2013-01-23", "2013-02-01", "2013-02-12", "2013-02-22", "2013-03-05", "2013-03-14", "2013-03-25", "2013-04-04", "2013-04-15", "2013-04-24", "2013-05-03", "2013-05-14", 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875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+589.7%", "+63.8%", "+770.9%", "+525.9%"], ["Last 5y", "+30.1%", "+17.8%", "+124.4%", "+12.3%"], ["Last 1y", "+6.4%", "+3.4%", "+21.0%", "+2.9%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-7.1%", "-4.9%", "-24.5%", "-2.2%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-0.2%", "-1.8%", "-9.9%", "+1.5%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-0.5%", "-1.3%", "-8.4%", "+0.9%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-2.3%", "-3.3%", "-18.8%", "+1.0%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-0.6%", "-1.6%", "-8.9%", "+0.9%"], ["2021", "+5.0%", "+5.2%", "+30.6%", "-0.2%"], ["2022", "-4.6%", "-3.2%", "-18.6%", "-1.4%"], ["2023", "+9.0%", "+4.6%", "+26.9%", "+4.4%"], ["2024", "+7.1%", "+4.6%", "+25.7%", "+2.5%"], ["2025", "+6.8%", "+3.7%", "+18.1%", "+3.1%"], ["2026", "+4.0%", "+2.0%", "+12.7%", "+1.9%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = +0.2% (t = +0.5).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `qqq` +0.04, `ivv` +0.03, `xlf` +0.03, `hyg` +0.02, `xly` +0.02, `iwm` -0.02 - net cash +0.80.", "**Decomposition verdict:** partially explainable \u2014 material active/timing residual", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.49 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Market neutral (long US equity, short credit). Full sample (since 1990) is unexplainable \u2014 the strategy has changed over 36 years; the last 5 years show a small net equity/credit tilt (ivv +0.14, vweax +0.06) explaining 74%. The rest is spread/option alpha (full-sample annualized alpha +5.5%, t=6.7).*"], "reference": {"rows": [["IVV +0.21", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["VWEAX +0.06", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["IWM -0.01", "US small cap (Russell 2000)", "small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window"], ["QQQ -0.02", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"]], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.23 \u2192 ~77% net cash", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 0.35 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account (income mostly defers to the LTCG/ROC rate). _~61% of 5y return defers to the investor (price appreciation + return of capital) - taxed as YOUR LTCG on a >1y sale, not ordinary income as in a traditional IRA. market-neutral: gains from short-dated option/systematic trades - often STCG_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +1.98", "n": 8, "rows": [["CVSIX (this fund)", "+30.1%", "+5.5%", "-20.8%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "TAXABLE (defers to LTCG)"], ["BATPX", "+56.0%", "+2.0%", "-24.7%", "0.95", "+0.5% (t=+0.7)", "n/a"], ["RYMHX", "-37.0%", "-10.1%", "-95.1%", "0.67", "+0.9% (t=+0.2)", "n/a"], ["RYJUX", "+96.3%", "-3.4%", "-84.6%", "0.96", "-0.1% (t=-0.1)", "n/a"], ["RYAIX", "-57.2%", "-14.2%", "-98.8%", "0.97", "-0.7% (t=-0.5)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 66pp."}}, "jlpsx": {"meta": {"sym": "jlpsx", "name": "JPMorgan US Large Cap Core Plus I", "group": "shortlist", "order": 15, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund seeks to provide high total return from a portfolio of selected equity securities."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+123.5%", "cagr": "+12.6%", "mdd": "-51.3%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["JLPSX is the JPMorgan US Large Cap Core Plus I. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks to provide high total return from a portfolio of selected equity securities. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'no dominant driver (balanced/idio)' cluster.", "Since 2005 it has compounded at +12.6% per year (a +1074% total return) with +22% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 51%. Over the last five years it returned +123.5% versus +127.4% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +14.5%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The fit is strong: 95% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures - exposure to core us equity market, exposure to growth/tech-heavy us equities, exposure to the tech sector index. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of -0.2% per year (t = -0.2) - is statistically indistinguishable from zero, i.e. the strategy is not clearly adding anything on top of the mix it owns. The curated decomposition's read: partially explainable \u2014 material active/timing residual. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.04 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 5% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE)."], "chart": {"dates": ["2005-11-01", "2005-11-07", "2005-11-11", "2005-11-17", "2005-11-23", "2005-11-30", "2005-12-06", "2005-12-12", "2005-12-16", "2005-12-22", "2005-12-29", "2006-01-05", "2006-01-11", "2006-01-18", "2006-01-24", "2006-01-30", "2006-02-03", "2006-02-09", "2006-02-15", "2006-02-22", "2006-02-28", "2006-03-06", "2006-03-10", "2006-03-16", "2006-03-22", "2006-03-28", "2006-04-03", "2006-04-07", "2006-04-13", "2006-04-20", "2006-04-26", "2006-05-02", "2006-05-08", "2006-05-12", "2006-05-18", "2006-05-24", "2006-05-31", "2006-06-06", 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"+18.1%", "-4.2%"], ["2026", "+8.1%", "+12.3%", "+12.4%", "-4.2%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = +1.4% (t = +0.3).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `ivv` +0.19, `qqq` +0.19, `xlk` +0.17, `xlf` +0.10, `xlv` +0.08, `xly` +0.06 - net cash +0.07.", "**Decomposition verdict:** partially explainable \u2014 material active/timing residual", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.04 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*US large-cap core plus: essentially 1.04x the S&P 500 (R\u00b2 0.96 over 5y, stable). The 'plus' is small optionality (tiny ijt/vwo tilts in the 5y fit). The cleanest fund on the list.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["IVV +1.00", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["VNQ -0.05", "US REITs", "physical real estate: rents vs rates, leverage in the property sector; equity-like income"], ["QQQ +0.05", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"]], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.99 \u2192 fully invested", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 0.91 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account. _unclassified: Other 99%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves_", "peers": {"cluster": "no dominant driver (balanced/idio)", "n": 337, "rows": [["JLPSX (this fund)", "+123.5%", "+12.6%", "-51.3%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "TAXABLE"], ["SEHAX", "+139.4%", "+15.1%", "-34.9%", "0.97", "+2.7% (t=+2.2)", "n/a"], ["CAIBX", "+73.4%", "+9.0%", "-43.2%", "0.92", "+1.9% (t=+1.6)", "n/a"], ["QAACX", "+147.4%", "+11.3%", "-63.0%", "0.96", "+2.4% (t=+1.6)", "n/a"], ["DESSX", "+139.3%", "+10.5%", "-58.2%", "0.98", "+1.5% (t=+1.4)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 24pp; meaningfully more volatile than the calmest peer."}}, "pmaix": {"meta": {"sym": "pmaix", "name": "Victory Pioneer Multi-Asset Income A", "group": "shortlist", "order": 16, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund seeks a high level of current income."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+78.6%", "cagr": "+8.6%", "mdd": "-24.1%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["PMAIX is the Victory Pioneer Multi-Asset Income A. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks a high level of current income. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster.", "Since 2011 it has compounded at +8.6% per year (a +236% total return) with +7% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 24%. Over the last five years it returned +78.6% versus +36.1% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +15.7%. It was positive in 7 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The fit is strong: 71% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures - a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds, a small tilt to international developed markets. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of +3.6% per year (t = 2.4) - is small relative to the beta, but it is what separates this fund from the equivalent index mix. The curated decomposition's read: partially explainable \u2014 material active/timing residual. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.45 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.", "To be explicit about the limits: 29% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. Global multi-asset fund of funds (N-PORT: 99.5% in unaffiliated underlying funds/loans) - the holdings check is the ground truth here, and the return model is only a description of it.", "Account placement: not settled by the model - the sleeve model calls it MIXED, so the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter before choosing taxable vs IRA."], "chart": {"dates": ["2011-12-22", "2011-12-28", "2012-01-03", "2012-01-06", "2012-01-11", "2012-01-17", "2012-01-20", "2012-01-25", "2012-01-30", "2012-02-02", "2012-02-07", "2012-02-10", "2012-02-15", "2012-02-21", "2012-02-24", "2012-02-29", "2012-03-05", "2012-03-08", "2012-03-13", "2012-03-16", "2012-03-21", "2012-03-26", "2012-03-29", "2012-04-03", "2012-04-09", "2012-04-12", "2012-04-17", "2012-04-20", "2012-04-25", "2012-04-30", "2012-05-03", "2012-05-08", "2012-05-11", "2012-05-16", "2012-05-21", "2012-05-24", "2012-05-30", "2012-06-04", "2012-06-07", "2012-06-12", "2012-06-15", "2012-06-20", "2012-06-25", "2012-06-28", "2012-07-03", 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875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+236.2%", "+84.1%", "+688.7%", "+152.1%"], ["Last 5y", "+78.6%", "+36.1%", "+124.4%", "+42.5%"], ["Last 1y", "+15.7%", "+9.8%", "+21.0%", "+5.9%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-7.9%", "-9.9%", "-24.5%", "+2.0%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-2.6%", "-5.0%", "-9.9%", "+2.4%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-1.0%", "-1.3%", "-8.4%", "+0.2%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-5.2%", "-4.0%", "-18.8%", "-1.2%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-1.5%", "-1.5%", "-8.9%", "-0.1%"], ["2021", "+11.9%", "+7.5%", "+30.6%", "+4.5%"], ["2022", "-0.0%", "-2.4%", "-18.6%", "+2.4%"], ["2023", "+8.8%", "+2.2%", "+26.9%", "+6.6%"], ["2024", "+7.8%", "+6.2%", "+25.7%", "+1.5%"], ["2025", "+22.6%", "+12.6%", "+18.1%", "+10.0%"], ["2026", "+9.7%", "+5.4%", "+12.7%", "+4.3%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = +4.1% (t = +2.8).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.13, `efa` +0.10, `vblix` +0.08, `xlf` +0.08, `xle` +0.07, `vwo` +0.06 - net cash +0.37.", "**Decomposition verdict:** partially explainable \u2014 material active/timing residual", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.45 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Global multi-asset fund of funds (N-PORT: 99.5% in unaffiliated underlying funds/loans). Returns decompose into high-yield credit (vweax +0.62), intl equity (efa +0.23), commodities (+0.05), bonds (\u22120.15): R\u00b2 0.68, stable weights, alpha +3.5%/yr (t=3.3). The sleeves show through the underlying funds.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["VEA +0.16", "Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard)", "developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter"], ["VWEAX +0.47", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["QQQ -0.36", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["IVV +0.43", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["DJP +0.05", "Natural gas", "a single volatile commodity: winter/hedging cycles"], ["VWO +0.07", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"]], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.83 \u2192 ~17% net cash", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 0.44 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Model says MIXED - the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter. _unclassified: Other 59%, Fund holdings 21%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves; multi-asset: mixed qualified/LTCG + ordinary interest - check 1099_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["PMAIX (this fund)", "+78.6%", "+8.6%", "-24.1%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "MIXED (check 1099)"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 73pp."}}, "pmorx": {"meta": {"sym": "pmorx", "name": "Putnam Mortgage Opportunities A", "group": "shortlist", "order": 17, "verdict": "", "objective": "The fund seeks to maximize total return consistent with what the Investment Manager (as defined below) believes to be prudent risk."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+37.3%", "cagr": "+4.3%", "mdd": "-19.3%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["PMORX is the Putnam Mortgage Opportunities A. Stated strategy: The fund seeks to maximize total return consistent with what the Investment Manager (as defined below) believes to be prudent risk. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +1.98' cluster.", "Since 2019 it has compounded at +4.3% per year (a +35% total return) with +6% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 19%. Over the last five years it returned +37.3% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +6.2%. It was positive in 4 of the last 7 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.08). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.1% per year over the last five years (t = 1.7) - at that t-stat it is not yet clearly different from a lucky streak. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.0% per year (t = 1.0). The stated strategy ('The fund seeks to maximize total return consistent with what the Investment Manager (as defined below)...') is a plausible mechanism as well, but that is a hypothesis - the returns only tell us the outperformance exists, not why. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.74 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 92% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA)."], "chart": {"dates": ["2019-06-28", "2019-07-02", "2019-07-05", "2019-07-09", "2019-07-11", "2019-07-15", "2019-07-17", "2019-07-19", "2019-07-23", "2019-07-25", "2019-07-29", "2019-07-31", "2019-08-02", "2019-08-06", "2019-08-08", "2019-08-12", "2019-08-14", "2019-08-16", "2019-08-20", "2019-08-22", "2019-08-26", "2019-08-28", "2019-08-30", "2019-09-04", "2019-09-06", "2019-09-10", "2019-09-12", "2019-09-16", "2019-09-18", "2019-09-20", "2019-09-24", "2019-09-26", "2019-09-30", "2019-10-02", "2019-10-04", "2019-10-08", "2019-10-10", "2019-10-14", "2019-10-16", "2019-10-18", "2019-10-22", "2019-10-24", "2019-10-28", "2019-10-30", "2019-11-01", "2019-11-05", "2019-11-07", "2019-11-11", "2019-11-13", "2019-11-15", "2019-11-19", "2019-11-21", "2019-11-25", "2019-11-27", "2019-12-02", "2019-12-04", "2019-12-06", "2019-12-10", "2019-12-12", "2019-12-16", "2019-12-18", "2019-12-20", "2019-12-24", "2019-12-27", "2019-12-31", "2020-01-03", "2020-01-07", "2020-01-09", "2020-01-13", "2020-01-15", "2020-01-17", "2020-01-22", "2020-01-24", "2020-01-28", "2020-01-30", "2020-02-03", "2020-02-05", "2020-02-07", "2020-02-11", "2020-02-13", "2020-02-18", "2020-02-20", "2020-02-24", "2020-02-26", "2020-02-28", "2020-03-03", "2020-03-05", "2020-03-09", "2020-03-11", "2020-03-13", "2020-03-17", "2020-03-19", "2020-03-23", "2020-03-25", "2020-03-27", "2020-03-31", "2020-04-02", "2020-04-06", "2020-04-08", "2020-04-13", "2020-04-15", "2020-04-17", "2020-04-21", "2020-04-23", "2020-04-27", "2020-04-29", "2020-05-01", "2020-05-05", "2020-05-07", 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"+4.4%"], ["2023", "+6.5%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+1.5%"], ["2024", "+10.0%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+4.8%"], ["2025", "+5.5%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+1.3%"], ["2026", "+5.3%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "+3.1%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = +2.0% (t = +1.0).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vmbix` +0.02, `ief` -0.02, `xlf` +0.02, `dbmf` +0.02, `vwo` +0.01, `gld` -0.01 - net cash +0.95.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.74 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Long/short mortgage & ABS \u2014 returns mostly idiosyncratic (R\u00b2 0.10). 5y direction is long MBS (vmbix +0.31) / short intermediate rates (ief \u22120.39), consistent with a carry/relative-value mortgage strategy. Not a static sleeve.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["EFA +0.04", "Intl developed ex-US (MSCI EAFE)", "developed-market equities outside the US; same exposure as VEA via a different index provider"], ["FXE -0.05", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to -0.00 \u2192 ~100% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.25 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +1.98", "n": 8, "rows": [["PMORX (this fund)", "+37.3%", "+4.3%", "-19.3%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "IRA"], ["BATPX", "+56.0%", "+2.0%", "-24.7%", "0.95", "+0.5% (t=+0.7)", "n/a"], ["RYMHX", "-37.0%", "-10.1%", "-95.1%", "0.67", "+0.9% (t=+0.2)", "n/a"], ["RYJUX", "+96.3%", "-3.4%", "-84.6%", "0.96", "-0.1% (t=-0.1)", "n/a"], ["RYAIX", "-57.2%", "-14.2%", "-98.8%", "0.97", "-0.7% (t=-0.5)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 59pp; deeper drawdown than the calmest peer (-19.3% vs -24.7%)."}}, "qspnx": {"meta": {"sym": "qspnx", "name": "AQR Style Premia Alternative N", "group": "shortlist", "order": 18, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund seeks long-term absolute (positive) returns."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+197.1%", "cagr": "+7.7%", "mdd": "-41.8%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["QSPNX is the AQR Style Premia Alternative N. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks long-term absolute (positive) returns. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +1.98' cluster.", "Since 2013 it has compounded at +7.7% per year (a +160% total return) with +11% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 42%. Over the last five years it returned +197.1% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +22.0%. It was positive in 5 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.32). The loadings that do show up - exposure to cheap/asset-rich us names (financials, energy, cyclicals), short-like exposure to growth/tech-heavy us equities (it rises when that asset falls), a small tilt to international developed markets - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +10.5% per year over the last five years (t = 2.2) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +7.6% per year (t = 1.8). The stated strategy ('The Fund seeks long-term absolute (positive) returns') is a plausible mechanism as well, but that is a hypothesis - the returns only tell us the outperformance exists, not why. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 1.00 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.", "To be explicit about the limits: 68% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up.", "Account placement: not settled by the model - the sleeve model calls it MIXED, so the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter before choosing taxable vs IRA."], "chart": {"dates": ["2013-10-30", "2013-11-04", "2013-11-07", "2013-11-12", "2013-11-15", "2013-11-20", "2013-11-25", "2013-11-29", "2013-12-04", "2013-12-09", "2013-12-12", "2013-12-17", "2013-12-20", "2013-12-26", "2013-12-31", "2014-01-06", "2014-01-09", "2014-01-14", "2014-01-17", "2014-01-23", "2014-01-28", "2014-01-31", "2014-02-05", "2014-02-10", "2014-02-13", "2014-02-19", "2014-02-24", 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"-8.4%", "-4.8%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-2.6%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-3.1%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "+8.9%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "+8.3%"], ["2021", "+23.7%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+23.8%"], ["2022", "+30.2%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "+28.8%"], ["2023", "+12.4%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+7.5%"], ["2024", "+19.6%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+14.4%"], ["2025", "+14.8%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+10.7%"], ["2026", "+18.5%", "+2.3%", "+12.7%", "+16.3%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = +7.6% (t = +1.8).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vtv` +0.21, `qqq` -0.16, `efa` +0.14, `xly` -0.14, `xlf` +0.13, `iwm` -0.12 - net cash +1.18.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 1.00 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Market-neutral style premia: no static sleeve explains returns (R\u00b2 0.18 5y). Alpha vs a cash-like benchmark: +12.8%/yr full sample (t=4.0). Decomposition = pure factor harvesting (value/size/style tilts in both books); the 'exposures' in the table are residuals, not sleeves.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["QQQ -0.74", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["IVV +0.83", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["VNQ -0.25", "US REITs", "physical real estate: rents vs rates, leverage in the property sector; equity-like income"], ["GSG +0.09", "Broad commodities (SPDR)", "same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund"], ["FXY -0.26", "Long yen vs the dollar", "USD/JPY: carries the Japan rate differential; carry-trade crowding risk"], ["VEA +0.19", "Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard)", "developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to -0.16 \u2192 ~116% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.5 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Model says MIXED - the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter. _unclassified: Other 100%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves; long/short factor strategy: gains mix STCG/LTCG - check 1099_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +1.98", "n": 8, "rows": [["QSPNX (this fund)", "+197.1%", "+7.7%", "-41.8%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "MIXED (check 1099)"], ["BATPX", "+56.0%", "+2.0%", "-24.7%", "0.95", "+0.5% (t=+0.7)", "n/a"], ["RYMHX", "-37.0%", "-10.1%", "-95.1%", "0.67", "+0.9% (t=+0.2)", "n/a"], ["RYJUX", "+96.3%", "-3.4%", "-84.6%", "0.96", "-0.1% (t=-0.1)", "n/a"], ["RYAIX", "-57.2%", "-14.2%", "-98.8%", "0.97", "-0.7% (t=-0.5)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** 5y return at the top of the cluster; sharpest drawdown in the cluster."}}, "svarx": {"meta": {"sym": "svarx", "name": "Spectrum Low Volatility Investor", "group": "shortlist", "order": 19, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund's investment objective is total return with lower downside volatility and risk compared to major stock market indices."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+20.8%", "cagr": "+6.1%", "mdd": "-6.5%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["SVARX is the Spectrum Low Volatility Investor. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment objective is total return with lower downside volatility and risk compared to major stock market indices. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster.", "Since 2013 it has compounded at +6.1% per year (a +112% total return) with +4% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 6%. Over the last five years it returned +20.8% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.9%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.30). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +0.8% per year over the last five years (t = 0.7) - at that t-stat it is not yet clearly different from a lucky streak. Over the full history the same estimate is +3.0% per year (t = 2.5). The stated strategy ('The Fund's investment objective is total return with lower downside volatility and risk compared to major...') is a plausible mechanism as well, but that is a hypothesis - the returns only tell us the outperformance exists, not why. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.26 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 70% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA)."], "chart": {"dates": ["2013-12-17", "2013-12-20", "2013-12-26", "2013-12-31", "2014-01-06", "2014-01-09", "2014-01-14", "2014-01-17", "2014-01-23", "2014-01-28", "2014-01-31", "2014-02-05", "2014-02-10", "2014-02-13", "2014-02-19", "2014-02-24", "2014-02-27", "2014-03-04", "2014-03-07", "2014-03-12", "2014-03-17", "2014-03-20", "2014-03-25", "2014-03-28", "2014-04-02", "2014-04-07", "2014-04-10", "2014-04-15", "2014-04-21", "2014-04-24", "2014-04-29", "2014-05-02", "2014-05-07", "2014-05-12", "2014-05-15", "2014-05-20", "2014-05-23", "2014-05-29", "2014-06-03", 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858.5387683809412, 850.0936175043507, 829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+112.0%", "+24.9%", "+433.2%", "+87.1%"], ["Last 5y", "+20.8%", "+19.2%", "+124.4%", "+1.7%"], ["Last 1y", "+4.9%", "+3.6%", "+21.0%", "+1.3%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-5.6%", "+0.6%", "-24.5%", "-6.2%"], ["2023 rate shock", "+0.6%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-0.7%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-0.2%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "-0.5%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-0.8%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-1.3%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-1.1%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-1.7%"], ["2021", "+4.1%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+4.2%"], ["2022", "-4.3%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-5.8%"], ["2023", "+9.8%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+4.8%"], ["2024", "+3.0%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "-2.1%"], ["2025", "+6.2%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+2.1%"], ["2026", "+1.6%", "+2.3%", "+12.7%", "-0.7%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = +3.0% (t = +2.5).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.04, `dbmf` +0.02, `fxy` +0.02, `emb` +0.02, `vblix` +0.02, `vmbix` +0.02 - net cash +0.74.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.26 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Low-volatility equity fund of funds. Small but positive net market (efa +0.07, agg +0.10; R\u00b2 0.24, low drift). The edge is in volatility selection, not the mix: +5.2%/yr alpha over that small sleeve (t=5.1).*"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.16", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["AGG +0.12", "Aggregate bonds (Treasuries + IG credit)", "the core bond market: ~60% Treasuries, IG corporates, MBS; moderate duration"], ["VEA +0.03", "Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard)", "developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.31 \u2192 ~69% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.23 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**. _unclassified: Fund holdings 40%, US govt 10%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["SVARX (this fund)", "+20.8%", "+6.1%", "-6.5%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "IRA"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 143pp; deeper drawdown than the calmest peer (-6.5% vs -14.2%)."}}, "cosix": {"meta": {"sym": "cosix", "name": "Columbia Strategic Income Fund", "group": "shortlist", "order": 20, "verdict": "sleeve mix (R\u00b2 high) - not alpha-driven", "objective": "The Fund seeks total return, consisting of current income and capital appreciation."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+12.1%", "cagr": "+5.5%", "mdd": "-26.2%", "r2_5y": "0.87", "alpha_5y": "+0.3% (t=+0.5)"}, "narrative": ["COSIX is the Columbia Strategic Income Fund. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks total return, consisting of current income and capital appreciation. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.31' cluster with 200 other funds.", "Since 1986 it has compounded at +5.5% per year (a +794% total return) with +5% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 26%. Over the last five years it returned +12.1% versus +5.5% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +2.9%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+1.3%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-13.8%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest. Its drawdown screen verdict: sleeve mix (R\u00b2 high) - not alpha-driven.", "The fit is strong: 87% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of +0.3% per year (t = 0.5) - is statistically indistinguishable from zero, i.e. the strategy is not clearly adding anything on top of the mix it owns. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions [strategy evolved \u2014 5y R\u00b2 = 0.86]. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.83 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 13% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way. The alpha is also not steady: in 49% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (N-PORT holdings says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is SGYAX (5y +34.4%, alpha t = +1.5); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.15 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["1986-01-02", "1986-01-13", "1986-01-22", "1986-01-31", "1986-02-11", "1986-02-21", "1986-03-04", "1986-03-13", "1986-03-24", "1986-04-03", "1986-04-14", "1986-04-23", "1986-05-02", "1986-05-13", "1986-05-22", "1986-06-03", "1986-06-12", "1986-06-23", "1986-07-02", "1986-07-14", "1986-07-23", "1986-08-01", "1986-08-12", "1986-08-21", "1986-09-02", "1986-09-11", "1986-09-22", "1986-10-01", "1986-10-10", "1986-10-21", "1986-10-30", "1986-11-10", "1986-11-19", "1986-12-01", "1986-12-10", "1986-12-19", "1986-12-31", "1987-01-12", "1987-01-21", "1987-01-30", "1987-02-10", "1987-02-20", "1987-03-03", "1987-03-12", "1987-03-23", "1987-04-01", "1987-04-10", "1987-04-22", "1987-05-01", "1987-05-12", "1987-05-21", "1987-06-02", "1987-06-11", "1987-06-22", "1987-07-01", "1987-07-13", "1987-07-22", "1987-07-31", "1987-08-11", "1987-08-20", "1987-08-31", "1987-09-10", "1987-09-21", "1987-09-30", 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"-2.8%"], ["2023", "+9.4%", "+5.2%", "+26.9%", "+4.2%"], ["2024", "+5.0%", "+2.3%", "+25.7%", "+2.6%"], ["2025", "+7.0%", "+6.8%", "+18.1%", "+0.2%"], ["2026", "+1.4%", "+0.6%", "+12.7%", "+0.8%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.87, alpha = +0.3% (t = +0.5)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.64, alpha = +1.0% (t = +1.9).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vmbix` +0.08, `vweax` +0.08, `ief` +0.06, `tlt` +0.06, `agg` +0.05, `emb` +0.04 - net cash +0.42.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions [strategy evolved \u2014 5y R\u00b2 = 0.86]", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.83 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Strategic income across the credit spectrum. Full sample (since 1990) unexplainable \u2014 vintage; the last 5 years are the honest current mix: high-yield +0.30, MBS +0.29, IG core +0.18 (R\u00b2 0.86).*", "**Screen verdict:** sleeve mix (R\u00b2 high) - not alpha-driven"], "reference": {"rows": [["VMBIX +0.29", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["VWEAX +0.27", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["AGG +0.14", "Aggregate bonds (Treasuries + IG credit)", "the core bond market: ~60% Treasuries, IG corporates, MBS; moderate duration"], ["EFA +0.03", "Intl developed ex-US (MSCI EAFE)", "developed-market equities outside the US; same exposure as VEA via a different index provider"], ["QQQ -0.02", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["VBLIX +0.05", "VIX futures (pure vol axis)", "crash insurance / short-vol funding; positive loading = long-vol (rises in panic), negative = short-vol carry"]], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.76 \u2192 ~24% net cash", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 0.0 (from actual N-PORT holdings (high confidence)). Recommended account: **IRA**. _unclassified: Other 30%_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.31", "n": 201, "rows": [["COSIX (this fund)", "+12.1%", "+5.5%", "-26.2%", "0.87", "+0.3% (t=+0.5)", "IRA"], ["SGYAX", "+34.4%", "+4.9%", "-36.4%", "0.81", "+1.3% (t=+1.5)", "n/a"], ["WCPBX", "+10.2%", "+3.4%", "-13.5%", "0.89", "+0.9% (t=+1.4)", "n/a"], ["MGVAX", "+3.7%", "+3.8%", "-17.2%", "0.92", "+0.8% (t=+1.2)", "n/a"], ["HYSAX", "+29.2%", "+4.4%", "-18.3%", "0.72", "+1.0% (t=+1.2)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 22pp."}}, "mbxix": {"meta": {"sym": "mbxix", "name": "Catalyst/Millburn Hedge Strategy I", "group": "shortlist", "order": 21, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund's investment objective is long-term capital appreciation."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+69.4%", "cagr": "+9.0%", "mdd": "-31.7%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["MBXIX is the Catalyst/Millburn Hedge Strategy I. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment objective is long-term capital appreciation. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +1.98' cluster.", "Since 2015 it has compounded at +9.0% per year (a +149% total return) with +13% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 32%. Over the last five years it returned +69.4% versus +45.3% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +16.3%. It was positive in 5 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The measured exposures explain a good share but not all (53% R\u00b2) of its excess returns. The main ones: exposure to trend-following across futures, a small tilt to mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk, a small tilt to broad commodities. The residual is -0.8% per year (t = -0.2): not statistically distinct from noise at the five-year horizon, so treat the outperformance as part beta, part luck until it accumulates more history. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.77 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 47% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way. Caveat: newest N-PORT on file is Sep 2024 \u2014 the fund may have changed strategy or stopped filing - the holdings check is the ground truth here, and the return model is only a description of it.", "Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE (defers to LTCG))."], "chart": {"dates": ["2015-12-28", "2015-12-30", "2016-01-04", "2016-01-06", "2016-01-08", "2016-01-12", "2016-01-14", "2016-01-19", "2016-01-21", "2016-01-25", "2016-01-27", "2016-01-29", "2016-02-02", "2016-02-04", "2016-02-08", "2016-02-10", "2016-02-12", "2016-02-17", "2016-02-19", "2016-02-23", "2016-02-25", "2016-02-29", "2016-03-02", "2016-03-04", "2016-03-08", "2016-03-10", "2016-03-14", "2016-03-16", "2016-03-18", "2016-03-22", "2016-03-24", "2016-03-29", "2016-03-31", "2016-04-04", "2016-04-06", "2016-04-08", "2016-04-12", "2016-04-14", "2016-04-18", "2016-04-20", "2016-04-22", "2016-04-26", "2016-04-28", "2016-05-02", "2016-05-04", "2016-05-06", "2016-05-10", "2016-05-12", "2016-05-16", 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1y", "+16.3%", "+11.1%", "+21.0%", "+5.2%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "+10.9%", "+6.7%", "-24.5%", "+4.2%"], ["2023 rate shock", "+2.3%", "-0.8%", "-9.9%", "+3.1%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-6.6%", "-5.8%", "-8.4%", "-0.8%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-13.3%", "-11.3%", "-18.8%", "-2.0%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "+4.0%", "+0.1%", "-8.9%", "+4.0%"], ["2021", "+17.5%", "+16.1%", "+30.6%", "+1.4%"], ["2022", "+7.4%", "+4.5%", "-18.6%", "+2.9%"], ["2023", "+1.4%", "+2.4%", "+26.9%", "-1.0%"], ["2024", "+13.4%", "+7.2%", "+25.7%", "+6.3%"], ["2025", "+3.7%", "-2.3%", "+18.1%", "+5.9%"], ["2026", "+12.7%", "+10.4%", "+12.7%", "+2.3%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = -1.9% (t = -0.6).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `dbmf` +0.18, `vmbix` -0.12, `gsg` +0.09, `iwm` +0.08, `fxe` -0.07, `ief` -0.07 - net cash +0.97.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.77 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Multi-strategy hedge fund: 53% explained over a decade (ivv +0.39, ief \u22120.67, fxe \u22120.28, tlt +0.17, djp +0.08) \u2014 equity long, duration short, FX/commodity tilts, large active residual. Caveat: newest N-PORT on file is Sep 2024 \u2014 the fund may have changed strategy or stopped filing.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["IVV +0.26", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["VMBIX -0.60", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["GSG +0.11", "Broad commodities (SPDR)", "same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund"], ["IWM +0.16", "US small cap (Russell 2000)", "small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window"], ["FXE -0.18", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"], ["VWEAX -0.22", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"]], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to -0.48 \u2192 ~148% net cash", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 0.5 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account (income mostly defers to the LTCG/ROC rate). _~76% of 5y return defers to the investor (price appreciation + return of capital) - taxed as YOUR LTCG on a >1y sale, not ordinary income as in a traditional IRA. unclassified: Fund holdings 77%, US govt 23%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves; hedge fund: gains often short-term - check 1099_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +1.98", "n": 8, "rows": [["MBXIX (this fund)", "+69.4%", "+9.0%", "-31.7%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "TAXABLE (defers to LTCG)"], ["BATPX", "+56.0%", "+2.0%", "-24.7%", "0.95", "+0.5% (t=+0.7)", "n/a"], ["RYMHX", "-37.0%", "-10.1%", "-95.1%", "0.67", "+0.9% (t=+0.2)", "n/a"], ["RYJUX", "+96.3%", "-3.4%", "-84.6%", "0.96", "-0.1% (t=-0.1)", "n/a"], ["RYAIX", "-57.2%", "-14.2%", "-98.8%", "0.97", "-0.7% (t=-0.5)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 27pp; meaningfully more volatile than the calmest peer."}}, "eagmx": {"meta": {"sym": "eagmx", "name": "Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Fund", "group": "shortlist", "order": 22, "verdict": "alpha in 5y window, but not persistent (lucky stretch?)", "objective": "The Fund's investment objective is total return."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+38.9%", "cagr": "+5.1%", "mdd": "-9.3%", "r2_5y": "0.07", "alpha_5y": "+2.6% (t=+2.4)"}, "narrative": ["EAGMX is the Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Fund. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment objective is total return. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster with 90 other funds.", "Since 1997 it has compounded at +5.1% per year (a +324% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 9%. Over the last five years it returned +38.9% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +11.1%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2025 tariff crash' (+0.2%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-5.1%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest. Its drawdown screen verdict: alpha in 5y window, but not persistent (lucky stretch?).", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.07). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.6% per year over the last five years (t = 2.4) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +1.6% per year (t = 2.7). The stated strategy ('The Fund's investment objective is total return') is a plausible mechanism as well, but that is a hypothesis - the returns only tell us the outperformance exists, not why. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.26 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.", "To be explicit about the limits: 93% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 56% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is ENIAX (5y +31.6%, alpha t = +3.7); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.24 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["1997-10-31", "1997-11-07", "1997-11-14", "1997-11-21", "1997-12-01", "1997-12-08", "1997-12-15", "1997-12-22", "1997-12-30", "1998-01-07", "1998-01-14", "1998-01-22", "1998-01-29", "1998-02-05", "1998-02-12", "1998-02-20", "1998-02-27", "1998-03-06", "1998-03-13", "1998-03-20", "1998-03-27", "1998-04-03", "1998-04-13", "1998-04-20", "1998-04-27", "1998-05-04", "1998-05-11", "1998-05-18", "1998-05-26", "1998-06-02", "1998-06-09", "1998-06-16", "1998-06-23", "1998-06-30", "1998-07-08", "1998-07-15", "1998-07-22", "1998-07-29", "1998-08-05", "1998-08-12", "1998-08-19", "1998-08-26", "1998-09-02", "1998-09-10", "1998-09-17", "1998-09-24", "1998-10-01", "1998-10-08", "1998-10-15", "1998-10-22", "1998-10-29", "1998-11-05", "1998-11-12", "1998-11-19", "1998-11-27", "1998-12-04", "1998-12-11", "1998-12-18", "1998-12-28", "1999-01-05", "1999-01-12", "1999-01-20", "1999-01-27", "1999-02-03", 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"-5.7%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-0.3%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-1.6%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-0.7%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "-1.0%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "+0.2%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-0.4%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-0.1%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-0.7%"], ["2021", "+1.7%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+1.8%"], ["2022", "-1.0%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-2.4%"], ["2023", "+7.1%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+2.2%"], ["2024", "+8.6%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+3.4%"], ["2025", "+12.0%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+7.9%"], ["2026", "+5.9%", "+2.3%", "+12.7%", "+3.6%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.07, alpha = +2.6% (t = +2.4)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.16, alpha = +1.6% (t = +2.7).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `hyg` -0.03, `vweax` +0.03, `vwo` +0.02, `vblix` +0.02, `efa` +0.01, `ief` -0.01 - net cash +0.99.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.26 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Global macro (sovereign-centric): nothing explains returns in the full or 5y window (R\u00b2 \u2264 0.05) \u2014 textbook macro, positions are tactical and asset-agnostic. The whole story is +5.1%/yr (t=8.0) over a flat benchmark.*", "**Screen verdict:** alpha in 5y window, but not persistent (lucky stretch?)"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWO +0.03", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"], ["IEF -0.07", "7-10 year Treasuries (core duration)", "the core rate bet: price moves when the Fed path changes"], ["QQQ -0.02", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["VWEAX +0.10", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.04 \u2192 ~96% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.1 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**. _unclassified: Other 69%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves; absolute-return: character varies - check 1099_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["EAGMX (this fund)", "+38.9%", "+5.1%", "-9.3%", "0.07", "+2.6% (t=+2.4)", "IRA"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 125pp."}}, "lcorx": {"meta": {"sym": "lcorx", "name": "Leuthold Core Investment Retail", "group": "shortlist", "order": 23, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund seeks capital appreciation and income (or total return )."}, "stats": {"t5y": "\u2014", "cagr": "\u2014", "mdd": "\u2014", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["LCORX is the Leuthold Core Investment Retail. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks capital appreciation and income (or total return ).", "There is no local return history for this share class yet (new class), so performance and drivers cannot be measured from returns. The N-PORT shows what it holds: NEW share classes (trading since Jul 2026) \u2014 no return history to regress. Holdings (Dec 2025 N-PORT): 91.7% ETFs + 8.4% money market; the strategy is Leuthold core multi-asset via ETFs. Re-run the decomposition after a year of NAV accumulates."], "chart": {"dates": [], "fund": [], "ref_dates": ["2007-05-30", "2007-06-05", "2007-06-11", "2007-06-15", "2007-06-21", "2007-06-27", "2007-07-03", "2007-07-10", "2007-07-16", "2007-07-20", "2007-07-26", "2007-08-01", "2007-08-07", "2007-08-13", "2007-08-17", "2007-08-23", "2007-08-29", "2007-09-05", "2007-09-11", "2007-09-17", "2007-09-21", "2007-09-27", "2007-10-03", "2007-10-09", "2007-10-15", "2007-10-19", "2007-10-25", "2007-10-31", "2007-11-06", "2007-11-12", "2007-11-16", "2007-11-23", "2007-11-29", "2007-12-05", "2007-12-11", "2007-12-17", "2007-12-21", "2007-12-28", "2008-01-04", "2008-01-10", "2008-01-16", "2008-01-23", "2008-01-29", "2008-02-04", "2008-02-08", "2008-02-14", "2008-02-21", "2008-02-27", "2008-03-04", "2008-03-10", "2008-03-14", "2008-03-20", "2008-03-27", "2008-04-02", "2008-04-08", "2008-04-14", "2008-04-18", "2008-04-24", "2008-04-30", "2008-05-06", "2008-05-12", "2008-05-16", "2008-05-22", 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Holdings (Dec 2025 N-PORT): 91.7% ETFs + 8.4% money market; the strategy is Leuthold core multi-asset via ETFs. Re-run the decomposition after a year of NAV accumulates.*"], "reference": {"rows": [], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.00 \u2192 ~100% net cash", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 1.0 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account. _wrapper: 91.7% Leuthold Core ETF (US equity) + 8% money market; unclassified: Fund holdings 100%; 100% pass-through/unclassified - character is the underlying funds'_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +1.98", "n": 8, "rows": [["LCORX (this fund)", "\u2014", "\u2014", "\u2014", "\u2014", "\u2014", "n/a"], ["BATPX", "+56.0%", "+2.0%", "-24.7%", "0.95", "+0.5% (t=+0.7)", "n/a"], ["RYMHX", "-37.0%", "-10.1%", "-95.1%", "0.67", "+0.9% (t=+0.2)", "n/a"], ["RYJUX", "+96.3%", "-3.4%", "-84.6%", "0.96", "-0.1% (t=-0.1)", "n/a"], ["RYAIX", "-57.2%", "-14.2%", "-98.8%", "0.97", "-0.7% (t=-0.5)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "Middle of the cluster - no decisive edge on return, drawdown or volatility; the choice comes down to alpha quality (t), tax fit and conviction in the strategy."}}, "lamhx": {"meta": {"sym": "lamhx", "name": "Lord Abbett Dividend Growth R6", "group": "shortlist", "order": 24, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund's investment objective is to seek current income and capital appreciation."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+103.9%", "cagr": "+13.0%", "mdd": "-33.5%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["LAMHX is the Lord Abbett Dividend Growth R6. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment objective is to seek current income and capital appreciation. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'no dominant driver (balanced/idio)' cluster.", "Since 2015 it has compounded at +13.0% per year (a +290% total return) with +17% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 33%. Over the last five years it returned +103.9% versus +110.8% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +16.7%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The fit is strong: 95% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures - exposure to the tech sector index, a small tilt to core us equity market, a small tilt to banks/insurance: rate + credit cycle. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of -1.4% per year (t = -1.0) - is statistically indistinguishable from zero, i.e. the strategy is not clearly adding anything on top of the mix it owns. The curated decomposition's read: static sleeve mix (weights stable, ~fully explained). Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.44 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 5% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE)."], "chart": {"dates": ["2015-06-30", "2015-07-02", "2015-07-07", "2015-07-09", "2015-07-13", "2015-07-15", "2015-07-17", "2015-07-21", "2015-07-23", "2015-07-27", "2015-07-29", "2015-07-31", "2015-08-04", "2015-08-06", "2015-08-10", "2015-08-12", "2015-08-14", "2015-08-18", "2015-08-20", "2015-08-24", "2015-08-26", "2015-08-28", "2015-09-01", "2015-09-03", "2015-09-08", "2015-09-10", "2015-09-14", "2015-09-16", "2015-09-18", "2015-09-22", "2015-09-24", "2015-09-28", "2015-09-30", "2015-10-02", "2015-10-06", "2015-10-08", "2015-10-12", "2015-10-14", 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"+0.9%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-6.5%", "-7.0%", "-8.4%", "+0.5%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-16.5%", "-16.8%", "-18.8%", "+0.3%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-5.6%", "-7.7%", "-8.9%", "+2.1%"], ["2021", "+28.1%", "+29.0%", "+30.6%", "-0.9%"], ["2022", "-12.8%", "-13.5%", "-18.6%", "+0.7%"], ["2023", "+17.1%", "+18.8%", "+26.9%", "-1.6%"], ["2024", "+23.2%", "+23.6%", "+25.7%", "-0.4%"], ["2025", "+16.7%", "+16.3%", "+18.1%", "+0.4%"], ["2026", "+9.1%", "+10.8%", "+12.4%", "-1.8%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = -0.7% (t = -0.5).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `xlk` +0.17, `ivv` +0.14, `xlf` +0.12, `vtv` +0.09, `xlv` +0.09, `qqq` +0.08 - net cash +0.06.", "**Decomposition verdict:** static sleeve mix (weights stable, ~fully explained)", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.44 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Dividend growth: R\u00b2 0.95; S&P 500 + value/mid tilt (ivv +0.62, ive +0.26, ijk +0.20, iwm \u22120.14 over 5y), stable weights. Closest to a passive fund with an overlay on this list.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["IVV +1.20", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["QQQ -0.26", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"]], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.95 \u2192 ~5% net cash", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 0.92 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account. _unclassified: Other 100%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves_", "peers": {"cluster": "no dominant driver (balanced/idio)", "n": 337, "rows": [["LAMHX (this fund)", "+103.9%", "+13.0%", "-33.5%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "TAXABLE"], ["SEHAX", "+139.4%", "+15.1%", "-34.9%", "0.97", "+2.7% (t=+2.2)", "n/a"], ["CAIBX", "+73.4%", "+9.0%", "-43.2%", "0.92", "+1.9% (t=+1.6)", "n/a"], ["QAACX", "+147.4%", "+11.3%", "-63.0%", "0.96", "+2.4% (t=+1.6)", "n/a"], ["DESSX", "+139.3%", "+10.5%", "-58.2%", "0.98", "+1.5% (t=+1.4)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 43pp; meaningfully more volatile than the calmest peer."}}}}
\ No newline at end of file
+{"generated": "2026-08-30 20:34", "funds": {"scfzx": {"meta": {"sym": "scfzx", "name": "PGIM Securitized Credit Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 1, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+37.0%", "cagr": "+4.7%", "mdd": "-17.2%", "r2_5y": "0.34", "alpha_5y": "+2.2% (t=+3.5)"}, "narrative": ["SCFZX is the PGIM Securitized Credit Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly ABS other (CLO/CMBS/AB) and CLO (collateralized debt). In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster with 90 other funds.", "Since 2019 it has compounded at +4.7% per year (a +39% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 17%. Over the last five years it returned +37.0% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +5.1%. It was positive in 4 of the last 7 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2023 rate shock' (+1.4%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-2.6%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.34). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.2% per year over the last five years (t = 3.5) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +1.5% per year (t = 1.7). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from ABS other (CLO/CMBS/AB) and CLO (collateralized debt) - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 66% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is ENIAX (5y +31.6%, alpha t = +3.7); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.16 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2019-07-01", "2019-07-03", "2019-07-08", "2019-07-10", "2019-07-12", "2019-07-16", "2019-07-18", "2019-07-22", "2019-07-24", "2019-07-26", "2019-07-30", "2019-08-01", "2019-08-05", "2019-08-07", "2019-08-09", "2019-08-13", "2019-08-15", "2019-08-19", "2019-08-21", "2019-08-23", "2019-08-27", "2019-08-29", "2019-09-03", "2019-09-05", "2019-09-09", "2019-09-11", "2019-09-13", "2019-09-17", "2019-09-19", "2019-09-23", "2019-09-25", "2019-09-27", "2019-10-01", "2019-10-03", "2019-10-07", "2019-10-09", "2019-10-11", "2019-10-15", "2019-10-17", "2019-10-21", "2019-10-23", "2019-10-25", "2019-10-29", "2019-10-31", "2019-11-04", "2019-11-06", "2019-11-08", "2019-11-12", "2019-11-14", "2019-11-18", "2019-11-20", "2019-11-22", "2019-11-26", "2019-11-29", "2019-12-03", "2019-12-05", "2019-12-09", "2019-12-11", "2019-12-13", "2019-12-17", "2019-12-19", "2019-12-23", "2019-12-26", "2019-12-30", 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history:** R\u00b2 = 0.30, alpha = +1.5% (t = +1.7).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.06, `vblix` +0.05, `hyg` -0.01, `fxe` -0.01, `vmbix` -0.01, `pff` +0.01 - net cash +0.93.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.10", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["VMBIX -0.05", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["VEA -0.02", "Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard)", "developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter"], ["VBLIX +0.35", "VIX futures (pure vol axis)", "crash insurance / short-vol funding; positive loading = long-vol (rises in panic), negative = short-vol carry"], ["TLT -0.23", "20+ year Treasuries (long duration)", "levered duration: big moves on rate expectations, steepener/bull-steepener exposure"], ["AGG -0.13", "Aggregate bonds (Treasuries + IG credit)", "the core bond market: ~60% Treasuries, IG corporates, MBS; moderate duration"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.02 \u2192 ~98% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.11 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["SCFZX (this fund)", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"], ["SHRIX", "+67.7%", "+4.0%", "-19.7%", "0.00", "+6.2% (t=+3.1)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 127pp."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 1795, "start": "2019-07-02", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.05835490984871583, "alpha_ann": 0.0209365743528175, "alpha_t": 1.8574366913055378, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": -0.017672373587149303, "t": -1.7088178077870044}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.013854604157865907, "t": 2.0433981967791053}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.050847336739416375, "t": 3.8021550140843225}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.008204054886529146, "t": -0.18331133505258235}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.007108631784666972, "t": -0.8296081398219338}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.009528061098480818, "t": -0.35674199601799056}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.020624368040708777, "t": 1.0906891161389545}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.028900755237684088, "t": 2.3669097221999835}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.1117501551757323, "t": -5.139856218831178}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.003366322562214007, "t": -0.4379019972544692}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.029149220605549496, "t": -1.4498618522314404}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.12106767192307774, "t": 3.642681238273286}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": -0.011512752828179623, "t": -2.3195582454708474}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.01404208077807676, "t": -3.003196274311626}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.005548854291592062, "t": -0.42571806764119907}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.027159655808683642, "t": 2.8224514565541146}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.028964117615643735, "t": 1.9544889416424154}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.03020891312813247, "t": -2.25590698954268}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.017196330245889263, "t": 1.6703453285716496}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.003918288303423646, "t": 0.4266592871095124}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.02768929770289632, "t": -2.800438307120795}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.005745139609882951, "t": -1.165356299297224}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.022928152328906992, "alpha_ann": 0.0229908553627246, "alpha_t": 2.9785752430760013, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": -0.00043734273932677283, "t": -0.05874598404113955}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.0028195470751009653, "t": 0.5876593545691745}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.007078364551858299, "t": 0.7514811010425667}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.009212675399062467, "t": -0.26518490721300864}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.01693515560470601, "t": -2.8025723938161398}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.020683744412635464, "t": 1.0257581145743688}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.0002401461482832262, "t": -0.017780810770842218}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.0304675679952369, "t": 1.3475170710865052}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.023001185293301966, "t": -1.4948559735782045}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.007090151909831335, "t": 1.3654669308985352}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.003933221618394074, "t": -0.2782000930219431}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.0054659001678276295, "t": -0.23443586359671328}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.0010418282547620015, "t": 0.2898542899328338}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.0016687860988123927, "t": -0.5309198350064183}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.019943058028803317, "t": -2.2011092765901026}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.0022330444060795368, "t": 0.3564708178895792}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.009239322863401083, "t": 0.7881273934673257}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.007748005772805075, "t": -0.720955067797887}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.0005232530874877859, "t": 0.07199289645732548}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.0021227103717219842, "t": 0.33351027546051704}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.0026457590384281423, "t": 0.3754583961485176}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.0011602140546955585, "t": -0.30586628260058313}]}, "identified": [], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2019-to-2026 the fit explains 6% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.06). The statistically identified tilt stack: clear anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (\u03b2 -0.11, t -5); modest tilt toward US growth equities (\u03b2 +0.05, t +4); modest dividend-appreciation tilt (growing payers) (\u03b2 +0.12, t +4); modest tilt away from gold (\u03b2 -0.01, t -3); modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (\u03b2 +0.03, t +3); modest tilt away from banks/financials (\u03b2 -0.03, t -3); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.03, t +2); modest tilt away from long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 -0.01, t -2); modest tilt away from utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (\u03b2 -0.03, t -2); modest an emerging-market tilt (\u03b2 +0.01, t +2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt away from US small caps (\u03b2 -0.02, t -3); modest short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (\u03b2 -0.02, t -2) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +2.1%/year (t +1.9) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "egrix": {"meta": {"sym": "egrix", "name": "Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Advantage Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 2, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+59.7%", "cagr": "+5.6%", "mdd": "-14.2%", "r2_5y": "0.07", "alpha_5y": "+5.2% (t=+3.2)"}, "narrative": ["EGRIX is the Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Advantage Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Fund/ETF holdings. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster with 90 other funds.", "Since 2010 it has compounded at +5.6% per year (a +138% total return) with +4% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 14%. Over the last five years it returned +59.7% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +18.9%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2025 tariff crash' (+0.2%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-6.2%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.07). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +5.2% per year over the last five years (t = 3.2) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +5.1% per year (t = 3.6). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Fund/ETF holdings - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 93% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 54% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance. 100% of NAV in ONE managed portfolio - underlying positions not disclosed in the fund's NPORT.", "Account placement: not settled by the model - the sleeve model calls it MIXED, so the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter before choosing taxable vs IRA. Within its cluster the strongest alternative is ENIAX (5y +31.6%, alpha t = +3.7); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.22 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2010-09-01", "2010-09-07", "2010-09-10", "2010-09-15", "2010-09-20", "2010-09-23", "2010-09-28", "2010-10-01", "2010-10-06", "2010-10-11", "2010-10-14", "2010-10-19", "2010-10-22", "2010-10-27", "2010-11-01", "2010-11-04", "2010-11-09", "2010-11-12", "2010-11-17", "2010-11-22", "2010-11-26", "2010-12-01", "2010-12-06", "2010-12-09", "2010-12-14", "2010-12-17", "2010-12-22", "2010-12-28", "2010-12-31", "2011-01-05", "2011-01-10", "2011-01-13", "2011-01-19", "2011-01-24", "2011-01-27", "2011-02-01", "2011-02-04", "2011-02-09", "2011-02-14", "2011-02-17", "2011-02-23", "2011-02-28", "2011-03-03", "2011-03-08", "2011-03-11", "2011-03-16", "2011-03-21", "2011-03-24", "2011-03-29", "2011-04-01", "2011-04-06", "2011-04-11", "2011-04-14", "2011-04-19", "2011-04-25", "2011-04-28", "2011-05-03", "2011-05-06", "2011-05-11", "2011-05-16", "2011-05-19", "2011-05-24", "2011-05-27", "2011-06-02", "2011-06-07", "2011-06-10", "2011-06-15", "2011-06-20", "2011-06-23", "2011-06-28", "2011-07-01", "2011-07-07", "2011-07-12", "2011-07-15", "2011-07-20", "2011-07-25", "2011-07-28", "2011-08-02", "2011-08-05", "2011-08-10", "2011-08-15", "2011-08-18", "2011-08-23", "2011-08-26", "2011-08-31", "2011-09-06", "2011-09-09", "2011-09-14", "2011-09-19", "2011-09-22", "2011-09-27", "2011-09-30", "2011-10-05", "2011-10-10", "2011-10-13", "2011-10-18", "2011-10-21", "2011-10-26", "2011-10-31", "2011-11-03", "2011-11-08", "2011-11-11", "2011-11-16", "2011-11-21", "2011-11-25", "2011-11-30", "2011-12-05", "2011-12-08", "2011-12-13", "2011-12-16", "2011-12-21", "2011-12-27", "2011-12-30", "2012-01-05", "2012-01-10", "2012-01-13", "2012-01-19", "2012-01-24", "2012-01-27", "2012-02-01", "2012-02-06", "2012-02-09", "2012-02-14", "2012-02-17", "2012-02-23", "2012-02-28", "2012-03-02", "2012-03-07", "2012-03-12", "2012-03-15", "2012-03-20", "2012-03-23", "2012-03-28", "2012-04-02", "2012-04-05", 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= +3.2)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.17, alpha = +5.1% (t = +3.6).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `hyg` -0.05, `vweax` +0.04, `vwo` +0.04, `dbmf` +0.02, `lqd` -0.02, `vblix` +0.02 - net cash +0.91.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWO +0.06", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"], ["QQQ -0.04", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["VWEAX +0.12", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["TLT -0.02", "20+ year Treasuries (long duration)", "levered duration: big moves on rate expectations, steepener/bull-steepener exposure"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.12 \u2192 ~88% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.35 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Model says MIXED - the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter. _macro: 60% LTCG if section-1256 futures; OTC swaps -> STCG - check 1099; absolute-return: character varies - check 1099_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["EGRIX (this fund)", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["SHRIX", "+67.7%", "+4.0%", "-19.7%", "0.00", "+6.2% (t=+3.1)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 105pp."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3293, "start": "2013-07-19", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.12524103483236548, "alpha_ann": 0.03817030349332702, "alpha_t": 3.5879090528579543, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.051236739897845975, "t": 5.037385878231423}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.03204324737578545, "t": 5.03206094123093}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.0029322190093274514, "t": 0.2068480791919251}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.07016378065727988, "t": 1.554111032401703}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.007628210778615482, "t": 0.8575874877960487}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.0036055204040157077, "t": 0.129927847101287}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.04179647181679606, "t": -1.9872553905196735}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.038342247159641886, "t": -2.615091811170088}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.05402307880314474, "t": -2.4675126890280676}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.002685829854788321, "t": 0.31258844777188444}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.0021143600301282497, "t": -0.10130416343058803}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.023862537274971993, "t": 0.6879640616839482}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": -0.029711546967554948, "t": -5.490051757335967}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.012789928976241146, "t": 2.5966380869513483}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.11961839529140021, "t": -10.723047611263983}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.005704472658765465, "t": 0.6039421579133888}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.012568334145483664, "t": -0.9113717705620636}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.0012558812684520526, "t": -0.10097146990784858}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.014372237262160019, "t": 1.3351350424466515}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.008592603949206877, "t": 0.9957281084542539}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.0010777774484749501, "t": 0.10365203559680662}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.005069213233586894, "t": -0.9921131849092031}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.07940672383238545, "alpha_ann": 0.04674725341462362, "alpha_t": 2.8837432495814133, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.01856845068846995, "t": 1.1876240290289168}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.04771282637994874, "t": 4.735092778017256}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.011771362210340352, "t": 0.5950574619904727}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.15323335638736202, "t": 2.1002132454022133}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.0009775276086501253, "t": 0.07702713164138959}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.008620517452582226, "t": -0.2035617516752244}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.08014622406762598, "t": -2.825569839586387}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.0913462593461499, "t": -1.9236865104724046}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.04392683764027424, "t": -1.3593338093499248}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.005486899784875006, "t": -0.5031525985105669}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.02969486670007612, "t": -1.0000858409958249}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.00045013698694915946, "t": -0.009192933101151811}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": -0.01495620329296772, "t": -1.9813080584444775}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.01640446159027487, "t": 2.485062430294488}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.012981756398492245, "t": -0.6822292756974186}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.02124351020876014, "t": 1.6147301264545353}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.017690058807091825, "t": 0.7185096430839721}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.016946188583621985, "t": -0.7508226123295668}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.002662322421408054, "t": 0.17441568664304455}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.013353557386621636, "t": 0.9989931252575212}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.02264352279260476, "t": 1.530039247242083}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.0085345259993324, "t": 1.0713217787300022}]}, "identified": ["vwo", "fxe", "tlt", "gld", "efa", "vug"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 13% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.13). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 5% of international developed equities (t +5); strong short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (\u03b2 -0.12, t -11); clear tilt away from long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 -0.03, t -5); clear an emerging-market tilt (\u03b2 +0.03, t +5); modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.04, t -3); modest tilt toward gold (\u03b2 +0.01, t +3); modest anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (\u03b2 -0.05, t -2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt toward US value equities (\u03b2 +0.15, t +2); modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.08, t -3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +3.8%/year (t +3.6) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "puls": {"meta": {"sym": "puls", "name": "PGIM Ultra Short Bond ETF", "group": "candidate", "order": 3, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+23.5%", "cagr": "+3.3%", "mdd": "-5.9%", "r2_5y": "0.16", "alpha_5y": "+0.8% (t=+2.9)"}, "narrative": ["PULS is the PGIM Ultra Short Bond ETF. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster with 90 other funds.", "Since 2018 it has compounded at +3.3% per year (a +32% total return) with +1% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 6%. Over the last five years it returned +23.5% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +3.9%. It was positive in 7 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2023 rate shock' (+1.4%) and worst in '2024 vol spike' (+0.3%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.16). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +0.8% per year over the last five years (t = 2.9) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +0.6% per year (t = 1.5).", "To be explicit about the limits: 84% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 53% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is ENIAX (5y +31.6%, alpha t = +3.7); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.10 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2018-04-10", "2018-04-12", "2018-04-16", "2018-04-18", "2018-04-20", "2018-04-24", "2018-04-26", "2018-04-30", "2018-05-02", "2018-05-04", "2018-05-08", "2018-05-10", "2018-05-14", "2018-05-16", "2018-05-18", "2018-05-22", "2018-05-24", "2018-05-29", "2018-05-31", "2018-06-04", "2018-06-06", "2018-06-08", "2018-06-12", "2018-06-14", "2018-06-18", "2018-06-20", "2018-06-22", "2018-06-26", "2018-06-28", "2018-07-02", "2018-07-05", "2018-07-09", "2018-07-11", "2018-07-13", "2018-07-17", "2018-07-19", "2018-07-23", "2018-07-25", "2018-07-27", "2018-07-31", "2018-08-02", "2018-08-06", "2018-08-08", "2018-08-10", "2018-08-14", "2018-08-16", "2018-08-20", "2018-08-22", "2018-08-24", "2018-08-28", "2018-08-30", "2018-09-04", "2018-09-06", "2018-09-10", "2018-09-12", "2018-09-14", "2018-09-18", "2018-09-20", "2018-09-24", "2018-09-26", "2018-09-28", "2018-10-02", "2018-10-04", "2018-10-08", 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"2019-11-26", "2019-11-29", "2019-12-03", "2019-12-05", "2019-12-09", "2019-12-11", "2019-12-13", "2019-12-17", "2019-12-19", "2019-12-23", "2019-12-26", "2019-12-30", "2020-01-02", "2020-01-06", "2020-01-08", "2020-01-10", "2020-01-14", "2020-01-16", "2020-01-21", "2020-01-23", "2020-01-27", "2020-01-29", "2020-01-31", "2020-02-04", "2020-02-06", "2020-02-10", "2020-02-12", "2020-02-14", "2020-02-19", "2020-02-21", "2020-02-25", "2020-02-27", "2020-03-02", "2020-03-04", "2020-03-06", "2020-03-10", "2020-03-12", "2020-03-16", "2020-03-18", "2020-03-20", "2020-03-24", "2020-03-26", "2020-03-30", "2020-04-01", "2020-04-03", "2020-04-07", "2020-04-09", "2020-04-14", "2020-04-16", "2020-04-20", "2020-04-22", "2020-04-24", "2020-04-28", "2020-04-30", "2020-05-04", "2020-05-06", "2020-05-08", "2020-05-12", "2020-05-14", "2020-05-18", "2020-05-20", "2020-05-22", "2020-05-27", "2020-05-29", "2020-06-02", "2020-06-04", "2020-06-08", "2020-06-10", "2020-06-12", "2020-06-16", "2020-06-18", 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"+0.5%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+0.5%"], ["2022", "+1.6%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "+0.1%"], ["2023", "+6.2%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+1.3%"], ["2024", "+6.1%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+0.9%"], ["2025", "+5.0%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+0.8%"], ["2026", "+2.2%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "-0.0%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.16, alpha = +0.8% (t = +2.9)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.24, alpha = +0.6% (t = +1.5).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vmbix` +0.01, `ief` +0.01, `agg` +0.01, `tip` +0.01, `shy` +0.01, `emb` +0.00 - net cash +0.96.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VMBIX +0.04", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.04 \u2192 ~96% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.13 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["PULS (this fund)", "+23.5%", "+3.3%", "-5.9%", "0.16", "+0.8% (t=+2.9)", "IRA"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 141pp; deeper drawdown than the calmest peer (-5.9% vs -14.2%)."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 2103, "start": "2018-04-11", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.17224242257962985, "alpha_ann": 0.005794703426520122, "alpha_t": 1.3714649716249012, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": -0.005849410268136379, "t": -1.4628292574917316}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": -0.0003870122606854216, "t": -0.1525139429906619}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.0005384277942309819, "t": -0.10331098641730362}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.07938334435229925, "t": 4.676590398809492}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.0034274084356894223, "t": -1.0287709344569718}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.032156058297257296, "t": 3.113762545159642}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.010961720926677604, "t": 1.4874626534247595}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.04360630846516655, "t": -8.947245245198358}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.010519867142308818, "t": -1.2440693065123112}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.00392196068234525, "t": 1.2950383214978867}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.007100809279995892, "t": 0.9133076979979632}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.013549866432044878, "t": -1.068076960843592}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": -0.0011652228710450465, "t": -0.5901620768453177}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.0035524399900844065, "t": 1.9146623665565174}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.0040176362720289955, "t": 0.8121138828525383}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.016987239981593433, "t": 4.5040012180059374}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.008088301696581167, "t": -1.5285939157046047}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.006637573241083645, "t": 1.3910614182401437}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.0007432801131873736, "t": 0.18940333545646018}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.01652339852755665, "t": -4.728093267603779}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.013719161009177229, "t": -3.633491870892028}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.003949187621586762, "t": -2.0811625616185503}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.12055553858667345, "alpha_ann": 0.007720040087290044, "alpha_t": 2.8381169582056844, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": -0.002461545183060909, "t": -0.9382560230733232}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.0026839340796873147, "t": 1.5873600125596252}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.003182718408439527, "t": -0.9588278500239938}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.000926807342656433, "t": 0.07570242407745768}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.00021806545911669554, "t": 0.10240279617439678}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.01219009653389698, "t": 1.715458556669784}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.002849548993940037, "t": -0.5987001268607446}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.015497194744545376, "t": -1.9449429385154782}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.0016115043823252066, "t": 0.2971925460163619}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.0005002306194358405, "t": 0.27337148075235007}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.004087714368380034, "t": -0.8204397279149737}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.008879756528015861, "t": 1.0807386915588006}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.009861317526643196, "t": 7.78530857828775}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.003822769603557161, "t": 3.4511488294455863}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.0028639175066806134, "t": -0.896948777830123}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.007277333077581594, "t": 3.296523399136875}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.005415655985510941, "t": -1.3108851251068778}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.0032911923968196536, "t": 0.8690180986309457}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.004603711678937613, "t": 1.7973938481457215}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.0005572426801756512, "t": -0.24843920827116067}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.001261574170033021, "t": 0.5080209329302778}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.0010286018041963385, "t": 0.7694812670517742}]}, "identified": ["xlp", "fxy", "xlu"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2018-to-2026 the fit explains 17% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.17). The statistically identified tilt stack: clear underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.04, t -9); modest tilt away from healthcare (defensive) (\u03b2 -0.02, t -5); modest tilt toward US value equities (\u03b2 +0.08, t +5); modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (\u03b2 +0.02, t +5); modest tilt away from banks/financials (\u03b2 -0.01, t -4); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (\u03b2 +0.03, t +3); modest tilt away from energy (\u03b2 -0.00, t -2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: clear tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 +0.01, t +8); modest tilt toward gold (\u03b2 +0.00, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is +0.6%/year (t +1.4) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "aguax": {"meta": {"sym": "aguax", "name": "American Beacon Developing World Income Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 4, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+59.7%", "cagr": "+6.5%", "mdd": "-21.2%", "r2_5y": "0.30", "alpha_5y": "+4.9% (t=+2.8)"}, "narrative": ["AGUAX is the American Beacon Developing World Income Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Foreign sovereign and Cash/MMF (short-term). In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 2014 it has compounded at +6.5% per year (a +119% total return) with +5% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 21%. Over the last five years it returned +59.7% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +17.8%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (-0.8%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-18.4%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.30). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds, a small tilt to em sovereign/corporate carry - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +4.9% per year over the last five years (t = 2.8) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +4.5% per year (t = 3.1). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Foreign sovereign and Cash/MMF (short-term) - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 70% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 43% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.24 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2014-02-26", "2014-03-03", "2014-03-06", "2014-03-11", "2014-03-14", "2014-03-19", "2014-03-24", "2014-03-27", "2014-04-01", "2014-04-04", "2014-04-09", "2014-04-14", "2014-04-17", "2014-04-23", "2014-04-28", "2014-05-01", "2014-05-06", "2014-05-09", "2014-05-14", "2014-05-19", "2014-05-22", "2014-05-28", "2014-06-02", "2014-06-05", "2014-06-10", "2014-06-13", "2014-06-18", "2014-06-23", "2014-06-26", "2014-07-01", "2014-07-07", "2014-07-10", "2014-07-15", "2014-07-18", "2014-07-23", "2014-07-28", "2014-07-31", "2014-08-05", "2014-08-08", "2014-08-13", "2014-08-18", "2014-08-21", "2014-08-26", "2014-08-29", "2014-09-04", "2014-09-09", "2014-09-12", "2014-09-17", "2014-09-22", "2014-09-25", "2014-09-30", "2014-10-03", "2014-10-08", "2014-10-13", "2014-10-16", "2014-10-21", "2014-10-24", "2014-10-29", "2014-11-03", "2014-11-06", "2014-11-11", "2014-11-14", "2014-11-19", "2014-11-24", "2014-11-28", "2014-12-03", "2014-12-08", "2014-12-11", "2014-12-16", "2014-12-19", "2014-12-24", "2014-12-30", "2015-01-05", "2015-01-08", "2015-01-13", "2015-01-16", "2015-01-22", "2015-01-27", "2015-01-30", "2015-02-04", "2015-02-09", "2015-02-12", "2015-02-18", "2015-02-23", "2015-02-26", "2015-03-03", "2015-03-06", "2015-03-11", "2015-03-16", "2015-03-19", "2015-03-24", "2015-03-27", "2015-04-01", "2015-04-07", "2015-04-10", "2015-04-15", "2015-04-20", "2015-04-23", "2015-04-28", "2015-05-01", "2015-05-06", "2015-05-11", "2015-05-14", "2015-05-19", "2015-05-22", "2015-05-28", "2015-06-02", "2015-06-05", "2015-06-10", "2015-06-15", "2015-06-18", "2015-06-23", "2015-06-26", "2015-07-01", "2015-07-07", "2015-07-10", "2015-07-15", "2015-07-20", "2015-07-23", "2015-07-28", "2015-07-31", "2015-08-05", "2015-08-10", "2015-08-13", "2015-08-18", "2015-08-21", "2015-08-26", "2015-08-31", "2015-09-03", "2015-09-09", "2015-09-14", "2015-09-17", "2015-09-22", "2015-09-25", "2015-09-30", "2015-10-05", "2015-10-08", "2015-10-13", "2015-10-16", "2015-10-21", "2015-10-26", "2015-10-29", "2015-11-03", "2015-11-06", "2015-11-11", "2015-11-16", "2015-11-19", "2015-11-24", "2015-11-30", "2015-12-03", "2015-12-08", "2015-12-11", "2015-12-16", "2015-12-21", "2015-12-24", "2015-12-30", "2016-01-05", "2016-01-08", "2016-01-13", "2016-01-19", "2016-01-22", "2016-01-27", "2016-02-01", "2016-02-04", "2016-02-09", "2016-02-12", "2016-02-18", "2016-02-23", "2016-02-26", "2016-03-02", "2016-03-07", "2016-03-10", "2016-03-15", "2016-03-18", "2016-03-23", "2016-03-29", "2016-04-01", "2016-04-06", "2016-04-11", "2016-04-14", "2016-04-19", "2016-04-22", "2016-04-27", "2016-05-02", "2016-05-05", "2016-05-10", "2016-05-13", "2016-05-18", "2016-05-23", "2016-05-26", "2016-06-01", "2016-06-06", "2016-06-09", "2016-06-14", "2016-06-17", "2016-06-22", "2016-06-27", "2016-06-30", "2016-07-06", "2016-07-11", "2016-07-14", "2016-07-19", "2016-07-22", "2016-07-27", "2016-08-01", "2016-08-04", "2016-08-09", "2016-08-12", "2016-08-17", "2016-08-22", "2016-08-25", "2016-08-30", "2016-09-02", "2016-09-08", "2016-09-13", "2016-09-16", "2016-09-21", "2016-09-26", "2016-09-29", "2016-10-04", "2016-10-07", "2016-10-12", "2016-10-17", "2016-10-20", "2016-10-25", "2016-10-28", "2016-11-02", "2016-11-07", "2016-11-10", "2016-11-15", "2016-11-18", "2016-11-23", "2016-11-29", "2016-12-02", "2016-12-07", "2016-12-12", "2016-12-15", "2016-12-20", "2016-12-23", "2016-12-29", "2017-01-04", "2017-01-09", "2017-01-12", "2017-01-18", "2017-01-23", "2017-01-26", "2017-01-31", "2017-02-03", "2017-02-08", "2017-02-13", "2017-02-16", "2017-02-22", "2017-02-27", "2017-03-02", "2017-03-07", "2017-03-10", "2017-03-15", "2017-03-20", "2017-03-23", "2017-03-28", "2017-03-31", "2017-04-05", "2017-04-10", "2017-04-13", "2017-04-19", "2017-04-24", "2017-04-27", "2017-05-02", "2017-05-05", "2017-05-10", "2017-05-15", "2017-05-18", "2017-05-23", "2017-05-26", "2017-06-01", "2017-06-06", "2017-06-09", "2017-06-14", "2017-06-19", "2017-06-22", "2017-06-27", "2017-06-30", "2017-07-06", "2017-07-11", "2017-07-14", "2017-07-19", "2017-07-24", "2017-07-27", "2017-08-01", "2017-08-04", "2017-08-09", "2017-08-14", "2017-08-17", "2017-08-22", "2017-08-25", "2017-08-30", "2017-09-05", "2017-09-08", "2017-09-13", "2017-09-18", "2017-09-21", "2017-09-26", "2017-09-29", "2017-10-04", "2017-10-09", "2017-10-12", "2017-10-17", "2017-10-20", "2017-10-25", "2017-10-30", "2017-11-02", "2017-11-07", "2017-11-10", "2017-11-15", "2017-11-20", "2017-11-24", "2017-11-29", "2017-12-04", "2017-12-07", "2017-12-12", "2017-12-15", "2017-12-20", "2017-12-26", "2017-12-29", "2018-01-04", "2018-01-09", "2018-01-12", "2018-01-18", "2018-01-23", "2018-01-26", "2018-01-31", "2018-02-05", "2018-02-08", "2018-02-13", "2018-02-16", "2018-02-22", "2018-02-27", "2018-03-02", "2018-03-07", "2018-03-12", "2018-03-15", "2018-03-20", "2018-03-23", "2018-03-28", "2018-04-03", "2018-04-06", "2018-04-11", "2018-04-16", "2018-04-19", "2018-04-24", "2018-04-27", "2018-05-02", "2018-05-07", "2018-05-10", "2018-05-15", "2018-05-18", "2018-05-23", "2018-05-29", "2018-06-01", "2018-06-06", "2018-06-11", "2018-06-14", "2018-06-19", "2018-06-22", "2018-06-27", "2018-07-02", "2018-07-06", "2018-07-11", "2018-07-16", "2018-07-19", "2018-07-24", "2018-07-27", "2018-08-01", "2018-08-06", "2018-08-09", "2018-08-14", "2018-08-17", "2018-08-22", "2018-08-27", "2018-08-30", "2018-09-05", "2018-09-10", "2018-09-13", "2018-09-18", "2018-09-21", "2018-09-26", "2018-10-01", "2018-10-04", "2018-10-09", "2018-10-12", "2018-10-17", "2018-10-22", "2018-10-25", "2018-10-30", "2018-11-02", "2018-11-07", "2018-11-12", "2018-11-15", "2018-11-20", "2018-11-26", "2018-11-29", "2018-12-04", "2018-12-10", "2018-12-13", "2018-12-18", "2018-12-21", "2018-12-27", "2019-01-02", "2019-01-07", "2019-01-10", "2019-01-15", "2019-01-18", "2019-01-24", "2019-01-29", "2019-02-01", "2019-02-06", "2019-02-11", "2019-02-14", "2019-02-20", 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"drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.30, alpha = +4.9% (t = +2.8)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.30, alpha = +4.5% (t = +3.1).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.12, `emb` +0.11, `efa` +0.05, `vblix` +0.04, `pff` +0.04, `vwo` +0.03 - net cash +0.74.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.52", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["VWO +0.04", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"], ["QQQ -0.04", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["EFA +0.05", "Intl developed ex-US (MSCI EAFE)", "developed-market equities outside the US; same exposure as VEA via a different index provider"], ["IEF -0.06", "7-10 year Treasuries (core duration)", "the core rate bet: price moves when the Fed path changes"], ["GSG -0.02", "Broad commodities (SPDR)", "same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.49 \u2192 ~51% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.05 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["AGUAX (this fund)", "+59.7%", "+6.5%", "-21.2%", "0.30", "+4.9% (t=+2.8)", "IRA"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 92pp."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3140, "start": "2014-02-27", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.16486108987402093, "alpha_ann": 0.04096687838258181, "alpha_t": 3.1136587047156374, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.07012069890002734, "t": 5.615648070049727}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.05133432410977847, "t": 6.468187684594956}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.023752253492183725, "t": 1.356751792452648}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.03098732032396969, "t": 0.5599146405529462}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.018881469284073894, "t": -1.7349901898990692}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.12138726438104258, "t": 3.5688606579267077}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.040794490518763986, "t": -1.5914417337415054}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.06702241430478097, "t": -3.7601497998350695}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.052212137200233925, "t": -1.8944601931447749}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.020402602435658126, "t": -1.9418172777225058}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.0057908641274153246, "t": -0.22673760549984123}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.01990873239780236, "t": -0.469954832577057}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.01802900529145506, "t": 2.718634611262368}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.004086489284841654, "t": -0.6652944465990008}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.02174302886654568, "t": -1.589278484514499}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.022680267423026805, "t": 1.9407957261815811}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.013322872313433046, "t": 0.7885745880361477}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.0049461024578931825, "t": -0.32464250504676134}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.005796472298517423, "t": -0.4396409598956349}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.0051185432874172945, "t": -0.4836595082353727}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.02220689338781767, "t": 1.747704070853951}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.006758541315834471, "t": 1.0831598772484567}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.18632079579563954, "alpha_ann": 0.04972661161821319, "alpha_t": 2.603883937940576, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.08271737624479977, "t": 4.490889007690272}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.036509453871984454, "t": 3.0756077711176273}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.03151145313921282, "t": 1.3521749220499348}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.09976918761818726, "t": 1.1607502304476536}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.031141746040312338, "t": -2.0830030996618403}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.08999090626529313, "t": 1.8038222236818462}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.13629813417679146, "t": -4.078919689924829}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.00528515011041479, "t": -0.0944785289618999}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.0159219378484293, "t": -0.41823884649788706}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.02084125563074576, "t": -1.62229128890111}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.07148573319449288, "t": 2.043654793927238}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.11744348189052334, "t": -2.0359662871873816}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.025543126474690692, "t": 2.8723473918535505}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.011609346451017325, "t": -1.4928472014058016}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.03009158407163868, "t": 1.342376098162668}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.0018866371113062457, "t": 0.12172907033437767}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.02383064718308068, "t": 0.8216208000858164}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.010636145494106346, "t": -0.4000201256919059}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.015279057786414807, "t": -0.8496767401904214}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.019027944744788257, "t": -1.2083414346253443}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.03753699338454862, "t": 2.153031209123688}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.02439239878397948, "t": -2.599125818792576}]}, "identified": ["efa", "vwo", "mtum"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2014-to-2026 the fit explains 16% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.16). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 7% of international developed equities (t +6); clear an emerging-market tilt (\u03b2 +0.05, t +6); modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.07, t -4); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (\u03b2 +0.12, t +4); modest tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 +0.02, t +3).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt away from US small caps (\u03b2 -0.03, t -2); modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.14, t -4); modest high-dividend tilt - a systematic preference for income-paying names (\u03b2 +0.07, t +2); modest tilt away from high dividend (appreciation-tilted) (\u03b2 -0.12, t -2); modest tilt toward banks/financials (\u03b2 +0.04, t +2); modest tilt away from energy (\u03b2 -0.02, t -3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +4.1%/year (t +3.1) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "rctix": {"meta": {"sym": "rctix", "name": "River Canyon Total Return Bond Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 5, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+30.6%", "cagr": "+5.5%", "mdd": "-10.9%", "r2_5y": "0.40", "alpha_5y": "+2.1% (t=+2.7)"}, "narrative": ["RCTIX is the River Canyon Total Return Bond Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly ABS other (CLO/CMBS/AB) and Corporate bond. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 2015 it has compounded at +5.5% per year (a +87% total return) with +4% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 11%. Over the last five years it returned +30.6% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.3%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+1.4%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-5.6%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.40). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.1% per year over the last five years (t = 2.7) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.5% per year (t = 2.6). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from ABS other (CLO/CMBS/AB) and Corporate bond - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 60% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 48% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.10 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2015-01-07", "2015-01-09", "2015-01-13", "2015-01-15", "2015-01-20", "2015-01-22", "2015-01-26", "2015-01-28", "2015-01-30", "2015-02-03", "2015-02-05", "2015-02-09", "2015-02-11", "2015-02-13", "2015-02-18", "2015-02-20", "2015-02-24", "2015-02-26", "2015-03-02", "2015-03-04", "2015-03-06", "2015-03-10", "2015-03-12", "2015-03-16", "2015-03-18", "2015-03-20", "2015-03-24", "2015-03-26", "2015-03-30", "2015-04-01", "2015-04-06", "2015-04-08", "2015-04-10", "2015-04-14", "2015-04-16", "2015-04-20", "2015-04-22", "2015-04-24", "2015-04-28", "2015-04-30", "2015-05-04", "2015-05-06", "2015-05-08", "2015-05-12", "2015-05-14", "2015-05-18", "2015-05-20", "2015-05-22", "2015-05-27", "2015-05-29", "2015-06-02", "2015-06-04", "2015-06-08", "2015-06-10", "2015-06-12", "2015-06-16", "2015-06-18", "2015-06-22", "2015-06-24", "2015-06-26", "2015-06-30", "2015-07-02", "2015-07-07", "2015-07-09", 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"2016-02-03", "2016-02-05", "2016-02-09", "2016-02-11", "2016-02-16", "2016-02-18", "2016-02-22", "2016-02-24", "2016-02-26", "2016-03-01", "2016-03-03", "2016-03-07", "2016-03-09", "2016-03-11", "2016-03-15", "2016-03-17", "2016-03-21", "2016-03-23", "2016-03-28", "2016-03-30", "2016-04-01", "2016-04-05", "2016-04-07", "2016-04-11", "2016-04-13", "2016-04-15", "2016-04-19", "2016-04-21", "2016-04-25", "2016-04-27", "2016-04-29", "2016-05-03", "2016-05-05", "2016-05-09", "2016-05-11", "2016-05-13", "2016-05-17", "2016-05-19", "2016-05-23", "2016-05-25", "2016-05-27", "2016-06-01", "2016-06-03", "2016-06-07", "2016-06-09", "2016-06-13", "2016-06-15", "2016-06-17", "2016-06-21", "2016-06-23", "2016-06-27", "2016-06-29", "2016-07-01", "2016-07-06", "2016-07-08", "2016-07-12", "2016-07-14", "2016-07-18", "2016-07-20", "2016-07-22", "2016-07-26", "2016-07-28", "2016-08-01", "2016-08-03", "2016-08-05", "2016-08-09", "2016-08-11", "2016-08-15", "2016-08-17", "2016-08-19", "2016-08-23", "2016-08-25", "2016-08-29", "2016-08-31", "2016-09-02", "2016-09-07", "2016-09-09", "2016-09-13", "2016-09-15", "2016-09-19", "2016-09-21", "2016-09-23", "2016-09-27", "2016-09-29", "2016-10-03", "2016-10-05", "2016-10-07", "2016-10-11", "2016-10-13", "2016-10-17", "2016-10-19", "2016-10-21", "2016-10-25", "2016-10-27", "2016-10-31", "2016-11-02", "2016-11-04", "2016-11-08", "2016-11-10", "2016-11-14", "2016-11-16", "2016-11-18", "2016-11-22", "2016-11-25", "2016-11-29", "2016-12-01", "2016-12-05", "2016-12-07", "2016-12-09", "2016-12-13", "2016-12-15", "2016-12-19", "2016-12-21", "2016-12-23", "2016-12-28", "2016-12-30", "2017-01-04", "2017-01-06", "2017-01-10", "2017-01-12", "2017-01-17", "2017-01-19", "2017-01-23", "2017-01-25", "2017-01-27", "2017-01-31", "2017-02-02", "2017-02-06", "2017-02-08", "2017-02-10", "2017-02-14", "2017-02-16", "2017-02-21", "2017-02-23", "2017-02-27", "2017-03-01", "2017-03-03", "2017-03-07", "2017-03-09", "2017-03-13", "2017-03-15", "2017-03-17", "2017-03-21", "2017-03-23", "2017-03-27", "2017-03-29", "2017-03-31", "2017-04-04", "2017-04-06", "2017-04-10", "2017-04-12", "2017-04-17", "2017-04-19", "2017-04-21", "2017-04-25", "2017-04-27", "2017-05-01", "2017-05-03", "2017-05-05", "2017-05-09", "2017-05-11", "2017-05-15", "2017-05-17", "2017-05-19", "2017-05-23", "2017-05-25", "2017-05-30", "2017-06-01", "2017-06-05", "2017-06-07", "2017-06-09", "2017-06-13", "2017-06-15", "2017-06-19", "2017-06-21", "2017-06-23", "2017-06-27", "2017-06-29", "2017-07-03", "2017-07-06", "2017-07-10", "2017-07-12", "2017-07-14", "2017-07-18", "2017-07-20", "2017-07-24", "2017-07-26", "2017-07-28", "2017-08-01", "2017-08-03", "2017-08-07", "2017-08-09", "2017-08-11", "2017-08-15", "2017-08-17", "2017-08-21", "2017-08-23", "2017-08-25", "2017-08-29", "2017-08-31", "2017-09-05", "2017-09-07", "2017-09-11", "2017-09-13", "2017-09-15", "2017-09-19", "2017-09-21", "2017-09-25", "2017-09-27", "2017-09-29", "2017-10-03", "2017-10-05", "2017-10-09", "2017-10-11", "2017-10-13", "2017-10-17", "2017-10-19", "2017-10-23", "2017-10-25", "2017-10-27", "2017-10-31", "2017-11-02", "2017-11-06", "2017-11-08", "2017-11-10", "2017-11-14", "2017-11-16", "2017-11-20", "2017-11-22", "2017-11-27", "2017-11-29", "2017-12-01", "2017-12-05", "2017-12-07", "2017-12-11", "2017-12-13", "2017-12-15", "2017-12-19", "2017-12-21", "2017-12-26", "2017-12-28", "2018-01-02", "2018-01-04", "2018-01-08", "2018-01-10", "2018-01-12", "2018-01-17", "2018-01-19", "2018-01-23", "2018-01-25", "2018-01-29", "2018-01-31", "2018-02-02", "2018-02-06", "2018-02-08", "2018-02-12", "2018-02-14", "2018-02-16", "2018-02-21", "2018-02-23", "2018-02-27", "2018-03-01", "2018-03-05", "2018-03-07", "2018-03-09", "2018-03-13", "2018-03-15", "2018-03-19", "2018-03-21", "2018-03-23", "2018-03-27", "2018-03-29", "2018-04-03", "2018-04-05", "2018-04-09", "2018-04-11", "2018-04-13", "2018-04-17", "2018-04-19", "2018-04-23", "2018-04-25", "2018-04-27", "2018-05-01", "2018-05-03", 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"-5.8%"], ["2023", "+9.8%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+4.9%"], ["2024", "+7.6%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+2.4%"], ["2025", "+7.6%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+3.5%"], ["2026", "+2.6%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "+0.3%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.40, alpha = +2.1% (t = +2.7)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.18, alpha = +2.5% (t = +2.6).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vmbix` +0.04, `ief` +0.03, `tip` +0.03, `vweax` +0.03, `agg` +0.03, `shy` +0.02 - net cash +0.75.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VMBIX +0.22", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["VWEAX +0.09", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.30 \u2192 ~70% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.13 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["RCTIX (this fund)", "+30.6%", "+5.5%", "-10.9%", "0.40", "+2.1% (t=+2.7)", "IRA"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 121pp."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 2922, "start": "2015-01-08", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.09783916091544587, "alpha_ann": 0.03275537037389886, "alpha_t": 3.305067511065251, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": -0.0005190944593771105, "t": -0.05560939551556724}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.006286972746427847, "t": 1.0485185748225243}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.01939160279477181, "t": 1.4919215814365145}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.07999009904727715, "t": 1.934102963443992}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.0023772554300489925, "t": 0.29059023177170723}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.06813329709809553, "t": 2.697464002893561}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.0074449745736733875, "t": -0.3936698609375852}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.03640878440293603, "t": -2.7839238013721466}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.06272942984699852, "t": -3.0396350877825333}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.010964886633513795, "t": 1.4094624354004117}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.08095035830473328, "t": 4.247326793765034}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.038782099605327545, "t": -1.2309691624078434}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.015141799475740073, "t": 3.0774167220306285}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.003566127358839713, "t": -0.7717307394347647}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.023786139914668346, "t": 2.3347207187821293}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.03862831489014601, "t": 4.441550894080592}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.01821709549979703, "t": -1.4409230576991827}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.016599863954796616, "t": 1.453113176792631}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.018096378993273342, "t": -1.857089032064497}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.01159696125906209, "t": -1.451937537772523}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.014841560529827609, "t": -1.5710505582342214}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.020308726898238875, "t": -4.3617338351083115}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.30870680413122276, "alpha_ann": 0.023226789254675622, "alpha_t": 2.660538239155326, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.025251083604640956, "t": 2.9989081300835356}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": -0.0038692172430762326, "t": -0.7130111116842907}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.006487811290593669, "t": 0.6089900904472161}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.058913853281115154, "t": 1.4993649074295123}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.01034729982633669, "t": 1.513984962199752}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.04038285955192574, "t": 1.7706786339703178}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.03900841153306461, "t": -2.553648276699704}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.05022253334823952, "t": -1.9639118119666696}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.025232192276881744, "t": -1.4498764633754966}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.000985946692314597, "t": -0.16788270593180635}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.024961339690099095, "t": 1.5610025893975534}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.026666192081141304, "t": -1.0112306805523668}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.06012398328010334, "t": 14.789661221679662}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.003637399306796102, "t": 1.023166086489607}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.013686515872034986, "t": 1.3355791674493755}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.030049520121648857, "t": 4.2412223723554625}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.013043477859373355, "t": 0.9837314685585453}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.0142207924094355, "t": -1.169954412643273}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.004183223906556361, "t": -0.508880533065687}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.00046700435224485744, "t": -0.06487334398664825}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.01237431926255065, "t": 1.5526005249283255}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.006142817113281111, "t": -1.431818428679406}]}, "identified": ["usmv", "fxy"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2015-to-2026 the fit explains 10% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.10). The statistically identified tilt stack: modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (\u03b2 +0.04, t +4); modest tilt away from energy (\u03b2 -0.02, t -4); modest high-dividend tilt - a systematic preference for income-paying names (\u03b2 +0.08, t +4); modest tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 +0.02, t +3); modest anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (\u03b2 -0.06, t -3); modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.04, t -3); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (\u03b2 +0.07, t +3); modest long-euro position (exposed to EUR moves) (\u03b2 +0.02, t +2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.04, t -3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +3.3%/year (t +3.3) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "rpifx": {"meta": {"sym": "rpifx", "name": "T. Rowe Price Institutional Floating Rate Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 6, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+39.5%", "cagr": "+5.2%", "mdd": "-22.5%", "r2_5y": "0.45", "alpha_5y": "+2.1% (t=+2.5)"}, "narrative": ["RPIFX is the T. Rowe Price Institutional Floating Rate Fund. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 2008 it has compounded at +5.2% per year (a +157% total return) with +4% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 23%. Over the last five years it returned +39.5% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.4%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2023 rate shock' (+1.1%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-3.0%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.45). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.1% per year over the last five years (t = 2.5) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.2% per year (t = 2.2).", "To be explicit about the limits: 55% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 52% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.27 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2008-02-01", "2008-02-07", "2008-02-13", "2008-02-20", "2008-02-26", "2008-03-03", "2008-03-07", "2008-03-13", "2008-03-19", "2008-03-26", "2008-04-01", "2008-04-07", "2008-04-11", "2008-04-17", "2008-04-23", "2008-04-29", "2008-05-05", "2008-05-09", "2008-05-15", "2008-05-21", "2008-05-28", "2008-06-03", "2008-06-09", "2008-06-13", "2008-06-19", "2008-06-25", "2008-07-01", "2008-07-08", "2008-07-14", "2008-07-18", "2008-07-24", "2008-07-30", "2008-08-05", "2008-08-11", "2008-08-15", "2008-08-21", "2008-08-27", "2008-09-03", "2008-09-09", "2008-09-15", "2008-09-19", "2008-09-25", "2008-10-01", "2008-10-07", "2008-10-13", "2008-10-17", "2008-10-23", "2008-10-29", "2008-11-04", "2008-11-10", "2008-11-14", "2008-11-20", "2008-11-26", "2008-12-03", "2008-12-09", "2008-12-15", "2008-12-19", "2008-12-26", "2009-01-02", "2009-01-08", "2009-01-14", "2009-01-21", "2009-01-27", "2009-02-02", "2009-02-06", "2009-02-12", "2009-02-19", "2009-02-25", "2009-03-03", "2009-03-09", "2009-03-13", "2009-03-19", "2009-03-25", "2009-03-31", "2009-04-06", "2009-04-13", "2009-04-17", "2009-04-23", "2009-04-29", "2009-05-05", "2009-05-11", "2009-05-15", "2009-05-21", "2009-05-28", "2009-06-03", "2009-06-09", "2009-06-15", "2009-06-19", "2009-06-25", "2009-07-01", "2009-07-08", "2009-07-14", "2009-07-20", "2009-07-24", "2009-07-30", "2009-08-05", "2009-08-11", "2009-08-17", "2009-08-21", "2009-08-27", "2009-09-02", "2009-09-09", "2009-09-15", "2009-09-21", "2009-09-25", "2009-10-01", "2009-10-07", "2009-10-13", "2009-10-19", "2009-10-23", "2009-10-29", "2009-11-04", "2009-11-10", "2009-11-16", "2009-11-20", "2009-11-27", "2009-12-03", "2009-12-09", "2009-12-15", "2009-12-21", "2009-12-28", "2010-01-04", "2010-01-08", "2010-01-14", "2010-01-21", "2010-01-27", "2010-02-02", "2010-02-08", "2010-02-12", "2010-02-19", "2010-02-25", "2010-03-03", "2010-03-09", "2010-03-15", "2010-03-19", "2010-03-25", "2010-03-31", "2010-04-07", "2010-04-13", "2010-04-19", "2010-04-23", "2010-04-29", "2010-05-05", "2010-05-11", "2010-05-17", "2010-05-21", "2010-05-27", "2010-06-03", "2010-06-09", "2010-06-15", "2010-06-21", "2010-06-25", "2010-07-01", "2010-07-08", "2010-07-14", "2010-07-20", "2010-07-26", "2010-07-30", "2010-08-05", "2010-08-11", "2010-08-17", "2010-08-23", "2010-08-27", "2010-09-02", "2010-09-09", "2010-09-15", "2010-09-21", "2010-09-27", "2010-10-01", "2010-10-07", "2010-10-13", "2010-10-19", "2010-10-25", "2010-10-29", "2010-11-04", "2010-11-10", "2010-11-16", "2010-11-22", "2010-11-29", "2010-12-03", "2010-12-09", "2010-12-15", "2010-12-21", "2010-12-28", "2011-01-03", "2011-01-07", "2011-01-13", "2011-01-20", "2011-01-26", "2011-02-01", "2011-02-07", "2011-02-11", "2011-02-17", "2011-02-24", "2011-03-02", "2011-03-08", "2011-03-14", "2011-03-18", "2011-03-24", "2011-03-30", "2011-04-05", "2011-04-11", "2011-04-15", "2011-04-21", "2011-04-28", "2011-05-04", "2011-05-10", "2011-05-16", "2011-05-20", "2011-05-26", "2011-06-02", "2011-06-08", "2011-06-14", "2011-06-20", "2011-06-24", "2011-06-30", "2011-07-07", "2011-07-13", "2011-07-19", "2011-07-25", "2011-07-29", "2011-08-04", "2011-08-10", "2011-08-16", "2011-08-22", "2011-08-26", "2011-09-01", "2011-09-08", "2011-09-14", "2011-09-20", "2011-09-26", "2011-09-30", "2011-10-06", "2011-10-12", "2011-10-18", "2011-10-24", "2011-10-28", "2011-11-03", "2011-11-09", "2011-11-15", "2011-11-21", "2011-11-28", "2011-12-02", "2011-12-08", "2011-12-14", "2011-12-20", "2011-12-27", "2012-01-03", "2012-01-09", "2012-01-13", "2012-01-20", "2012-01-26", "2012-02-01", "2012-02-07", "2012-02-13", "2012-02-17", "2012-02-24", "2012-03-01", "2012-03-07", "2012-03-13", "2012-03-19", "2012-03-23", "2012-03-29", "2012-04-04", "2012-04-11", "2012-04-17", "2012-04-23", "2012-04-27", "2012-05-03", "2012-05-09", "2012-05-15", "2012-05-21", "2012-05-25", "2012-06-01", "2012-06-07", "2012-06-13", "2012-06-19", "2012-06-25", "2012-06-29", "2012-07-06", "2012-07-12", "2012-07-18", "2012-07-24", "2012-07-30", "2012-08-03", "2012-08-09", "2012-08-15", "2012-08-21", "2012-08-27", "2012-08-31", "2012-09-07", "2012-09-13", "2012-09-19", "2012-09-25", "2012-10-01", "2012-10-05", "2012-10-11", "2012-10-17", "2012-10-23", "2012-10-31", "2012-11-06", "2012-11-12", "2012-11-16", "2012-11-23", "2012-11-29", "2012-12-05", "2012-12-11", "2012-12-17", "2012-12-21", "2012-12-28", "2013-01-04", "2013-01-10", "2013-01-16", "2013-01-23", "2013-01-29", "2013-02-04", "2013-02-08", "2013-02-14", "2013-02-21", "2013-02-27", "2013-03-05", "2013-03-11", "2013-03-15", "2013-03-21", "2013-03-27", "2013-04-03", "2013-04-09", "2013-04-15", "2013-04-19", "2013-04-25", "2013-05-01", "2013-05-07", "2013-05-13", "2013-05-17", "2013-05-23", "2013-05-30", "2013-06-05", "2013-06-11", "2013-06-17", "2013-06-21", "2013-06-27", "2013-07-03", "2013-07-10", "2013-07-16", "2013-07-22", "2013-07-26", "2013-08-01", "2013-08-07", "2013-08-13", "2013-08-19", "2013-08-23", "2013-08-29", "2013-09-05", "2013-09-11", "2013-09-17", "2013-09-23", "2013-09-27", "2013-10-03", "2013-10-09", "2013-10-15", "2013-10-21", "2013-10-25", "2013-10-31", "2013-11-06", "2013-11-12", "2013-11-18", "2013-11-22", "2013-11-29", "2013-12-05", "2013-12-11", "2013-12-17", "2013-12-23", "2013-12-30", "2014-01-06", "2014-01-10", "2014-01-16", "2014-01-23", "2014-01-29", "2014-02-04", "2014-02-10", "2014-02-14", "2014-02-21", "2014-02-27", "2014-03-05", "2014-03-11", "2014-03-17", "2014-03-21", "2014-03-27", "2014-04-02", "2014-04-08", "2014-04-14", "2014-04-21", "2014-04-25", "2014-05-01", "2014-05-07", "2014-05-13", "2014-05-19", "2014-05-23", "2014-05-30", "2014-06-05", "2014-06-11", "2014-06-17", "2014-06-23", "2014-06-27", "2014-07-03", "2014-07-10", "2014-07-16", "2014-07-22", "2014-07-28", "2014-08-01", "2014-08-07", "2014-08-13", "2014-08-19", "2014-08-25", "2014-08-29", "2014-09-05", "2014-09-11", "2014-09-17", "2014-09-23", 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836.5714255698672, 838.2424227975112, 845.7955555452916, 860.337383235379, 838.4794183902876, 856.229333214513, 834.4826119610877, 847.784251393242, 847.9766813996756, 858.5387683809412, 850.0936175043507, 829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+156.9%", "+26.5%", "+671.6%", "+130.4%"], ["Last 5y", "+39.5%", "+19.2%", "+123.7%", "+20.3%"], ["Last 1y", "+4.4%", "+3.6%", "+20.7%", "+0.8%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-3.0%", "+0.6%", "-24.5%", "-3.7%"], ["2023 rate shock", "+1.0%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-0.3%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-0.0%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "-0.3%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-1.6%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-2.2%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-0.6%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-1.2%"], ["2021", "+4.7%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+4.8%"], ["2022", "-0.7%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-2.1%"], ["2023", "+12.6%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+7.6%"], ["2024", "+9.2%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+4.0%"], ["2025", "+6.7%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+2.6%"], ["2026", "+2.2%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "-0.0%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.45, alpha = +2.1% (t = +2.5)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.55, alpha = +2.2% (t = +2.2).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.11, `vblix` +0.07, `pff` +0.02, `fxe` -0.01, `vwo` +0.01, `xlp` -0.01 - net cash +0.82.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.45", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["VMBIX -0.10", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["FXE -0.03", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"], ["IWM -0.01", "US small cap (Russell 2000)", "small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.31 \u2192 ~69% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.07 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["RPIFX (this fund)", "+39.5%", "+5.2%", "-22.5%", "0.45", "+2.1% (t=+2.5)", "IRA"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 112pp."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3293, "start": "2013-07-19", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.1463069956477172, "alpha_ann": 0.027584880324997486, "alpha_t": 3.1015869303740184, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": -0.0026426735663687955, "t": -0.31078803698506813}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.02052105713433288, "t": 3.8548380748347397}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.001840884514688552, "t": 0.15533834467434654}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.07949288651165468, "t": -2.10617459220394}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.020001606284568964, "t": -2.68978561435618}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.005282680689383099, "t": -0.2277118786154273}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.0902192521719346, "t": 5.131098178284905}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.14550328156363687, "t": 11.870778665117275}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.03378952483567416, "t": -1.8461168615903443}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.003125184301602998, "t": -0.43507797845018636}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.026478771274675746, "t": -1.517550748685242}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.0005641500344366939, "t": 0.019455428121461303}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.004336050935347705, "t": 0.9583906992867838}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.015170977753143576, "t": -3.684290808250399}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.016619012215650996, "t": 1.7820607721505182}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.02415193588364547, "t": 3.0586432939645847}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.04315344531484063, "t": -3.7430908635671107}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.05959298245362439, "t": 5.731156366544577}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.03713451563943426, "t": -4.126440821799399}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.003947778855306375, "t": 0.5472248738668751}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.0014818539874005255, "t": -0.17047127031119497}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.001690564789142844, "t": 0.39577606080515076}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.11069530485695445, "alpha_ann": 0.021333320567559273, "alpha_t": 1.9580841333887207, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.009857012314538312, "t": 0.9380392352466539}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.018918930484216, "t": 2.7935878165110264}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.03941687959966545, "t": 2.964741417153}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.004773391748348047, "t": 0.09734408207307842}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.025742643710505504, "t": -3.0181459472679673}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.04286777962937609, "t": 1.5061430802716045}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.009268431537440138, "t": -0.48618507619058754}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.0294980513599629, "t": 0.9242921336004546}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.05025102771587264, "t": -2.3137345170990304}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.005118687652242241, "t": -0.6983991763001138}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.00197674779953823, "t": -0.09905572022882118}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.0065419746942975265, "t": -0.19878822568265994}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.011803466131408924, "t": 2.326551132809641}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.0007264127074385498, "t": -0.16373108996559105}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.0261927330782237, "t": -2.0480950649430203}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.003911414246087422, "t": -0.44236410445733026}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.027843976966308824, "t": 1.6827011354248518}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.017121461414725595, "t": -1.1287000322854701}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.01609384124215502, "t": -1.5687617897213797}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.0004736214287155327, "t": -0.05271925487945823}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.008756835266991522, "t": 0.8803961906646367}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.0012175758561425946, "t": 0.22740968314213533}]}, "identified": ["dflvx", "xlf", "vym", "xlu", "xlv", "vtv"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 15% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.15). The statistically identified tilt stack: strong low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.15, t +12); clear tilt toward utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (\u03b2 +0.06, t +6); clear low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.09, t +5); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (\u03b2 -0.04, t -4); modest an emerging-market tilt (\u03b2 +0.02, t +4); modest short-AUD position (USD carry) (\u03b2 -0.04, t -4); modest tilt away from gold (\u03b2 -0.02, t -4); modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (\u03b2 +0.02, t +3); modest tilt away from US small caps (\u03b2 -0.02, t -3); modest tilt away from US value equities (\u03b2 -0.08, t -2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt toward US growth equities (\u03b2 +0.04, t +3); modest anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (\u03b2 -0.05, t -2); modest tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 +0.01, t +2); modest short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (\u03b2 -0.03, t -2) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +2.8%/year (t +3.1) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "wmnux": {"meta": {"sym": "wmnux", "name": "Westwood Alternative Income Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 7, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+30.2%", "cagr": "+4.5%", "mdd": "-7.6%", "r2_5y": "0.38", "alpha_5y": "+1.4% (t=+2.4)"}, "narrative": ["WMNUX is the Westwood Alternative Income Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Corporate bond and Cash/MMF (short-term). In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster with 90 other funds.", "Since 2015 it has compounded at +4.5% per year (a +65% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 8%. Over the last five years it returned +30.2% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +6.9%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+0.5%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-2.6%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.38). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +1.4% per year over the last five years (t = 2.4) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +3.0% per year (t = 3.9). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Corporate bond and Cash/MMF (short-term) - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 62% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 49% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is ENIAX (5y +31.6%, alpha t = +3.7); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.09 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2015-05-01", "2015-05-05", "2015-05-07", "2015-05-11", "2015-05-13", "2015-05-15", "2015-05-19", "2015-05-21", "2015-05-26", "2015-05-28", "2015-06-01", "2015-06-03", "2015-06-05", "2015-06-09", "2015-06-11", "2015-06-15", "2015-06-17", "2015-06-19", "2015-06-23", "2015-06-25", "2015-06-29", "2015-07-01", "2015-07-06", "2015-07-08", "2015-07-10", "2015-07-14", "2015-07-16", "2015-07-20", "2015-07-22", "2015-07-24", "2015-07-28", "2015-07-30", "2015-08-03", "2015-08-05", "2015-08-07", "2015-08-11", "2015-08-13", "2015-08-17", "2015-08-19", "2015-08-21", "2015-08-25", "2015-08-27", "2015-08-31", "2015-09-02", "2015-09-04", "2015-09-09", "2015-09-11", "2015-09-15", "2015-09-17", "2015-09-21", "2015-09-23", "2015-09-25", "2015-09-29", "2015-10-01", "2015-10-05", "2015-10-07", "2015-10-09", "2015-10-13", "2015-10-15", "2015-10-19", "2015-10-21", "2015-10-23", "2015-10-27", "2015-10-29", "2015-11-02", "2015-11-04", "2015-11-06", "2015-11-10", "2015-11-12", "2015-11-16", "2015-11-18", "2015-11-20", "2015-11-24", "2015-11-27", "2015-12-01", "2015-12-03", "2015-12-07", "2015-12-09", "2015-12-11", "2015-12-15", "2015-12-17", "2015-12-21", "2015-12-23", "2015-12-28", "2015-12-30", "2016-01-04", "2016-01-06", "2016-01-08", "2016-01-12", "2016-01-14", "2016-01-19", "2016-01-21", "2016-01-25", "2016-01-27", "2016-01-29", "2016-02-02", "2016-02-04", "2016-02-08", "2016-02-10", "2016-02-12", "2016-02-17", "2016-02-19", "2016-02-23", "2016-02-25", "2016-02-29", "2016-03-02", "2016-03-04", "2016-03-08", "2016-03-10", "2016-03-14", "2016-03-16", "2016-03-18", "2016-03-22", "2016-03-24", "2016-03-29", "2016-03-31", "2016-04-04", "2016-04-06", "2016-04-08", "2016-04-12", "2016-04-14", "2016-04-18", "2016-04-20", "2016-04-22", "2016-04-26", "2016-04-28", "2016-05-02", "2016-05-04", "2016-05-06", "2016-05-10", "2016-05-12", "2016-05-16", "2016-05-18", "2016-05-20", "2016-05-24", "2016-05-26", "2016-05-31", "2016-06-02", "2016-06-06", "2016-06-08", "2016-06-10", "2016-06-14", "2016-06-16", "2016-06-20", "2016-06-22", "2016-06-24", "2016-06-28", "2016-06-30", "2016-07-05", "2016-07-07", "2016-07-11", "2016-07-13", "2016-07-15", "2016-07-19", "2016-07-21", "2016-07-25", "2016-07-27", "2016-07-29", "2016-08-02", "2016-08-04", "2016-08-08", "2016-08-10", "2016-08-12", "2016-08-16", "2016-08-18", "2016-08-22", "2016-08-24", "2016-08-26", "2016-08-30", "2016-09-01", "2016-09-06", "2016-09-08", "2016-09-12", "2016-09-14", "2016-09-16", "2016-09-20", "2016-09-22", "2016-09-26", "2016-09-28", "2016-09-30", "2016-10-04", "2016-10-06", "2016-10-10", "2016-10-12", "2016-10-14", "2016-10-18", "2016-10-20", "2016-10-24", "2016-10-26", "2016-10-28", "2016-11-01", "2016-11-03", "2016-11-07", "2016-11-09", "2016-11-11", "2016-11-15", "2016-11-17", "2016-11-21", "2016-11-23", "2016-11-28", "2016-11-30", "2016-12-02", "2016-12-06", "2016-12-08", "2016-12-12", "2016-12-14", 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"+337.2%", "+40.0%"], ["Last 5y", "+30.2%", "+19.2%", "+123.7%", "+11.1%"], ["Last 1y", "+6.9%", "+3.6%", "+20.7%", "+3.3%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-2.7%", "+0.6%", "-24.5%", "-3.3%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-0.2%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-1.6%"], ["2024 vol spike", "+0.4%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "+0.1%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "+0.1%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-0.4%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "+0.0%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-0.6%"], ["2021", "+3.2%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+3.3%"], ["2022", "-1.2%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-2.6%"], ["2023", "+6.8%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+1.9%"], ["2024", "+6.4%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+1.2%"], ["2025", "+7.7%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+3.6%"], ["2026", "+4.3%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "+2.0%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.38, alpha = +1.4% (t = +2.4)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.18, alpha = +3.0% (t = +3.9).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.03, `iwm` +0.02, `vmbix` +0.01, `tip` +0.01, `pff` +0.01, `xlp` -0.01 - net cash +0.87.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.11", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["IWM +0.03", "US small cap (Russell 2000)", "small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window"], ["FXE +0.02", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"], ["VMBIX +0.03", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["VNQ -0.01", "US REITs", "physical real estate: rents vs rates, leverage in the property sector; equity-like income"], ["VWO +0.01", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.18 \u2192 ~82% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.18 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["WMNUX (this fund)", "+30.2%", "+4.5%", "-7.6%", "0.38", "+1.4% (t=+2.4)", "IRA"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 134pp; deeper drawdown than the calmest peer (-7.6% vs -14.2%)."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 2843, "start": "2015-05-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.13495280699702106, "alpha_ann": 0.02579810274387509, "alpha_t": 3.5825736718092083, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": -0.0023603927735156454, "t": -0.34749172464395983}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.0006316732183344595, "t": 0.14471913962703753}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.027173859433029208, "t": -2.81201476430196}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.020855393140243202, "t": -0.6931431323302867}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.03090329713452977, "t": 5.21196165204323}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.03788523010058019, "t": 2.0718257485395957}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.001521544875897438, "t": -0.11144507914025033}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.018554817504035717, "t": 1.9734208076403406}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.02929698834200878, "t": 1.9239895156000326}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.010357189293083534, "t": 1.845556868981525}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.020509928950556387, "t": 1.479566623474812}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.08165295301616868, "t": -3.5543119885133434}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.007352190319505994, "t": 2.055854131597871}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.0030062394743824365, "t": -0.8924664404446432}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.042137770820234226, "t": 5.487370876113373}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.023144681283060027, "t": 3.6692155275158314}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.009113445211772538, "t": 0.9941704803773227}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.01219064983517832, "t": 1.4639010834492423}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.032993294012003835, "t": -4.693052527495828}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.009825750652438, "t": -1.6949494158234915}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.014318447650743757, "t": 2.096510562496696}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.0009255680602410214, "t": -0.2748847312865463}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.34156996022763564, "alpha_ann": 0.013986024977287185, "alpha_t": 2.2974131408083807, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.013935116310492032, "t": 2.373330471187049}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.006512696018285393, "t": 1.7210697318369423}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.01765463426636654, "t": 2.376485765023263}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.037671979142680084, "t": 1.3749054250538717}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.02484035655706498, "t": 5.2121490772844945}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.024530982170025653, "t": 1.5424890532628093}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.021453108157174983, "t": -2.0139909381347394}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.011760086034626752, "t": -0.6594750065096617}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.023076753375495616, "t": -1.9015826161502338}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.003411841364902986, "t": 0.8331166843292753}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.017567215536762548, "t": 1.575444608371066}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.03134089447150552, "t": -1.7043747714350037}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.01174147255567117, "t": 4.141880106900138}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.0008596415723104323, "t": -0.34676642598586327}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.01717837525829653, "t": 2.403938162366817}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.006236518429309756, "t": 1.2622930418658662}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.023386930700968825, "t": 2.529419504781906}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.015107496937955852, "t": -1.7823875228953385}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.014389216191191486, "t": -2.5101885249663205}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.0055297773661496935, "t": -1.1015836436161208}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.008907569367150318, "t": -1.6027364001119724}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.003192813875084819, "t": -1.0672310200288386}]}, "identified": ["iwm", "fxe", "xlp", "fxu", "fxy"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2015-to-2026 the fit explains 13% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.13). The statistically identified tilt stack: clear long-euro position (exposed to EUR moves) (\u03b2 +0.04, t +5); clear tilt toward US small caps (\u03b2 +0.03, t +5); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (\u03b2 -0.03, t -5); modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (\u03b2 +0.02, t +4); modest tilt away from high dividend (appreciation-tilted) (\u03b2 -0.08, t -4); modest tilt away from US growth equities (\u03b2 -0.03, t -3); modest tilt toward banks/financials (\u03b2 +0.01, t +2); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (\u03b2 +0.04, t +2); modest tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 +0.01, t +2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.02, t -2); modest long-AUD position (AUD carry) (\u03b2 +0.02, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +2.6%/year (t +3.6) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "prfrx": {"meta": {"sym": "prfrx", "name": "T. Rowe Price Floating Rate Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 8, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+38.1%", "cagr": "+4.4%", "mdd": "-20.0%", "r2_5y": "0.46", "alpha_5y": "+1.9% (t=+2.3)"}, "narrative": ["PRFRX is the T. Rowe Price Floating Rate Fund. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 2011 it has compounded at +4.4% per year (a +91% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 20%. Over the last five years it returned +38.1% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.4%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2023 rate shock' (+1.0%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-3.1%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.46). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +1.9% per year over the last five years (t = 2.3) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.0% per year (t = 2.0).", "To be explicit about the limits: 54% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 52% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.27 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2011-08-01", "2011-08-04", "2011-08-09", "2011-08-12", "2011-08-17", "2011-08-22", "2011-08-25", "2011-08-30", "2011-09-02", "2011-09-08", "2011-09-13", "2011-09-16", "2011-09-21", "2011-09-26", "2011-09-29", "2011-10-04", "2011-10-07", "2011-10-12", "2011-10-17", "2011-10-20", "2011-10-25", "2011-10-28", "2011-11-02", "2011-11-07", "2011-11-10", "2011-11-15", "2011-11-18", "2011-11-23", "2011-11-29", "2011-12-02", "2011-12-07", "2011-12-12", "2011-12-15", "2011-12-20", "2011-12-23", "2011-12-29", "2012-01-04", "2012-01-09", "2012-01-12", "2012-01-18", "2012-01-23", "2012-01-26", "2012-01-31", "2012-02-03", "2012-02-08", "2012-02-13", "2012-02-16", "2012-02-22", "2012-02-27", "2012-03-01", "2012-03-06", "2012-03-09", "2012-03-14", "2012-03-19", "2012-03-22", "2012-03-27", "2012-03-30", "2012-04-04", "2012-04-10", "2012-04-13", "2012-04-18", "2012-04-23", "2012-04-26", "2012-05-01", "2012-05-04", "2012-05-09", "2012-05-14", "2012-05-17", "2012-05-22", "2012-05-25", "2012-05-31", "2012-06-05", "2012-06-08", "2012-06-13", "2012-06-18", "2012-06-21", "2012-06-26", "2012-06-29", "2012-07-05", "2012-07-10", "2012-07-13", "2012-07-18", "2012-07-23", "2012-07-26", "2012-07-31", "2012-08-03", "2012-08-08", "2012-08-13", "2012-08-16", "2012-08-21", "2012-08-24", "2012-08-29", "2012-09-04", "2012-09-07", "2012-09-12", "2012-09-17", "2012-09-20", "2012-09-25", "2012-09-28", "2012-10-03", "2012-10-08", "2012-10-11", "2012-10-16", "2012-10-19", "2012-10-24", "2012-10-31", "2012-11-05", "2012-11-08", "2012-11-13", "2012-11-16", "2012-11-21", "2012-11-27", "2012-11-30", "2012-12-05", "2012-12-10", "2012-12-13", "2012-12-18", "2012-12-21", "2012-12-27", "2013-01-02", "2013-01-07", "2013-01-10", "2013-01-15", "2013-01-18", "2013-01-24", "2013-01-29", "2013-02-01", "2013-02-06", "2013-02-11", "2013-02-14", "2013-02-20", "2013-02-25", "2013-02-28", "2013-03-05", "2013-03-08", "2013-03-13", "2013-03-18", "2013-03-21", "2013-03-26", "2013-04-01", "2013-04-04", "2013-04-09", "2013-04-12", "2013-04-17", "2013-04-22", "2013-04-25", "2013-04-30", "2013-05-03", "2013-05-08", "2013-05-13", "2013-05-16", "2013-05-21", "2013-05-24", "2013-05-30", "2013-06-04", "2013-06-07", "2013-06-12", "2013-06-17", "2013-06-20", "2013-06-25", "2013-06-28", "2013-07-03", "2013-07-09", "2013-07-12", "2013-07-17", "2013-07-22", "2013-07-25", "2013-07-30", "2013-08-02", "2013-08-07", "2013-08-12", "2013-08-15", "2013-08-20", "2013-08-23", "2013-08-28", "2013-09-03", "2013-09-06", "2013-09-11", "2013-09-16", "2013-09-19", "2013-09-24", "2013-09-27", "2013-10-02", "2013-10-07", "2013-10-10", "2013-10-15", "2013-10-18", "2013-10-23", "2013-10-28", "2013-10-31", "2013-11-05", "2013-11-08", "2013-11-13", "2013-11-18", "2013-11-21", "2013-11-26", "2013-12-02", "2013-12-05", "2013-12-10", "2013-12-13", "2013-12-18", "2013-12-23", "2013-12-27", "2014-01-02", "2014-01-07", "2014-01-10", 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"-2.3%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-0.8%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-1.4%"], ["2021", "+4.5%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+4.6%"], ["2022", "-0.7%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-2.1%"], ["2023", "+12.2%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+7.3%"], ["2024", "+8.8%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+3.6%"], ["2025", "+6.5%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+2.3%"], ["2026", "+2.1%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "-0.2%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.46, alpha = +1.9% (t = +2.3)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.49, alpha = +2.0% (t = +2.0).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.11, `vblix` +0.07, `pff` +0.02, `fxe` -0.01, `vwo` +0.01, `iwm` -0.01 - net cash +0.83.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.46", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["VMBIX -0.11", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["IWM -0.01", "US small cap (Russell 2000)", "small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window"], ["FXE -0.03", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.31 \u2192 ~69% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.15 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["PRFRX (this fund)", "+38.1%", "+4.4%", "-20.0%", "0.46", "+1.9% (t=+2.3)", "IRA"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 113pp."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3293, "start": "2013-07-19", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.14986765150863135, "alpha_ann": 0.02471088306903583, "alpha_t": 2.762765547768199, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.0018591795833139682, "t": 0.21741275853120487}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.019273144271773936, "t": 3.599994978317799}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.0023764992813174427, "t": -0.19940347746915102}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.09844116837295486, "t": -2.5934971432061453}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.02089565078311389, "t": -2.7941621539505928}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.0002528000893748502, "t": 0.010835562485375028}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.10135460325538141, "t": 5.731885307327879}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.1469759628979286, "t": 11.923277331311224}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.03077284879149466, "t": -1.6718130825801973}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.0042997383553928245, "t": -0.5952184835226348}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.0275329296978579, "t": -1.5690642707537492}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.009072008414361591, "t": 0.3110946407516019}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.003012461856064826, "t": 0.6620833767820655}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.016183273914877224, "t": -3.9079556663665445}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.017731996327091527, "t": 1.8906792075332726}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.024772953236044323, "t": 3.1195904303855415}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.0477408493603297, "t": -4.117635962438724}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.062120795504905166, "t": 5.94055549578982}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.03854721346068019, "t": -4.259256144085203}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.004610039067237452, "t": 0.6354194893284292}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.002914508439901921, "t": -0.33339110906678826}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.0020282900617503447, "t": 0.47216161451173433}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.10885317161212615, "alpha_ann": 0.020080600300678392, "alpha_t": 1.8656426841493343, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.018511645295928223, "t": 1.7831981863349677}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.016846675042881683, "t": 2.518018022238299}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.0407284079986191, "t": 3.100851034350782}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.0026749039122427355, "t": -0.05521658598905786}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.024104033834807817, "t": -2.860590606331721}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.05112796031761526, "t": 1.8183295545711349}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.005331139730021737, "t": -0.283070317388423}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.010068807678951113, "t": 0.31935437038955133}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.05194511000248191, "t": -2.420985211060398}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.0075895595571899436, "t": -1.0481913016240918}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.00850990056637448, "t": -0.431649925688351}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.01091860474426039, "t": 0.3358364504395761}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.006369874456202287, "t": 1.2709041721341652}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.0034988358351767464, "t": -0.7982706738494877}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.023582923018099305, "t": -1.8665765956370168}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.003575005340777376, "t": -0.4092622142047047}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.023547123720399146, "t": 1.4404310565494942}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.017884949730445562, "t": -1.1934502469292387}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.01269760076528587, "t": -1.2528464496024494}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.0035111034042346477, "t": 0.39560377632966665}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.004429604043851242, "t": 0.4507905161897714}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.0033315288068362873, "t": 0.629847466899224}]}, "identified": ["dflvx", "xlf", "xlu", "vtv", "fxu", "vwo"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 15% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.15). The statistically identified tilt stack: strong low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.15, t +12); clear tilt toward utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (\u03b2 +0.06, t +6); clear low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.10, t +6); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (\u03b2 -0.04, t -4); modest short-AUD position (USD carry) (\u03b2 -0.05, t -4); modest tilt away from gold (\u03b2 -0.02, t -4); modest an emerging-market tilt (\u03b2 +0.02, t +4); modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (\u03b2 +0.02, t +3); modest tilt away from US small caps (\u03b2 -0.02, t -3); modest tilt away from US value equities (\u03b2 -0.10, t -3).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt toward US growth equities (\u03b2 +0.04, t +3); modest anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (\u03b2 -0.05, t -2) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +2.5%/year (t +2.8) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "femdx": {"meta": {"sym": "femdx", "name": "Franklin Emerging Market Debt Opportunities Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 9, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+52.0%", "cagr": "+6.9%", "mdd": "-31.8%", "r2_5y": "0.32", "alpha_5y": "+4.6% (t=+2.3)"}, "narrative": ["FEMDX is the Franklin Emerging Market Debt Opportunities Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Foreign sovereign and Corporate bond. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 2006 it has compounded at +6.9% per year (a +287% total return) with +5% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 32%. Over the last five years it returned +52.0% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +17.0%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (-0.6%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-16.0%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.32). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to em sovereign/corporate carry, a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +4.6% per year over the last five years (t = 2.3) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +3.9% per year (t = 2.3). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Foreign sovereign and Corporate bond - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 68% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 41% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE (defers to LTCG)). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.28 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["2006-05-31", "2006-06-06", "2006-06-12", "2006-06-16", "2006-06-22", "2006-06-28", "2006-07-05", "2006-07-11", "2006-07-17", "2006-07-21", "2006-07-27", "2006-08-02", "2006-08-08", "2006-08-14", "2006-08-18", "2006-08-24", "2006-08-30", "2006-09-06", "2006-09-12", "2006-09-18", "2006-09-22", "2006-09-28", "2006-10-04", "2006-10-10", "2006-10-16", "2006-10-20", "2006-10-26", "2006-11-01", "2006-11-07", "2006-11-13", "2006-11-17", "2006-11-24", "2006-11-30", "2006-12-06", "2006-12-12", "2006-12-18", "2006-12-22", "2006-12-29", "2007-01-08", "2007-01-12", "2007-01-19", "2007-01-25", "2007-01-31", "2007-02-06", "2007-02-12", "2007-02-16", "2007-02-23", "2007-03-01", "2007-03-07", "2007-03-13", "2007-03-19", "2007-03-23", "2007-03-29", "2007-04-04", "2007-04-11", "2007-04-17", "2007-04-23", "2007-04-27", "2007-05-03", "2007-05-09", "2007-05-15", "2007-05-21", "2007-05-25", "2007-06-01", 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741.9227215276541, 754.5794272927635, 756.8460232558393, 745.0194960148061, 757.3509014141805, 766.6190445333908, 755.7239184623767, 757.8894978134142, 735.8075277000132, 770.714519693762, 773.2166610879026, 768.7958176385309, 769.6264093624704, 777.9814600277924, 782.463108384158, 784.6925310762523, 775.0650240738165, 786.7532233211904, 776.1572799883932, 782.6432386193211, 774.3443627584163, 779.6704218270236, 770.7185962217277, 753.2539760920974, 746.204477374851, 731.6175305238098, 743.9803742064752, 770.6929619814466, 805.3990946915524, 809.8249135200988, 817.4232344841527, 836.5714255698672, 838.2424227975112, 845.7955555452916, 860.337383235379, 838.4794183902876, 856.229333214513, 834.4826119610877, 847.784251393242, 847.9766813996756, 858.5387683809412, 850.0936175043507, 829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+286.5%", "+30.2%", "+771.6%", "+256.4%"], ["Last 5y", "+52.0%", "+19.2%", "+123.7%", "+32.8%"], ["Last 1y", "+17.0%", "+3.6%", "+20.7%", "+13.4%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-16.1%", "+0.6%", "-24.5%", "-16.7%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-2.9%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-4.2%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-0.7%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "-1.0%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-4.1%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-4.7%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-2.0%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-2.6%"], ["2021", "+1.3%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+1.4%"], ["2022", "-8.9%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-10.3%"], ["2023", "+15.2%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+10.3%"], ["2024", "+12.1%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+7.0%"], ["2025", "+15.3%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+11.2%"], ["2026", "+10.2%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "+7.9%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.32, alpha = +4.6% (t = +2.3)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.37, alpha = +3.9% (t = +2.3).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `emb` +0.13, `vweax` +0.10, `efa` +0.06, `vwo` +0.06, `fxe` +0.04, `vblix` +0.04 - net cash +0.68.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.42", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["VWO +0.08", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"], ["FXE +0.05", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"], ["GSG -0.03", "Broad commodities (SPDR)", "same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund"], ["QQQ -0.05", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["EFA +0.07", "Intl developed ex-US (MSCI EAFE)", "developed-market equities outside the US; same exposure as VEA via a different index provider"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.53 \u2192 ~47% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.06 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account (income mostly defers to the LTCG/ROC rate). _~100% of 5y return defers to the investor (price appreciation + return of capital) - taxed as YOUR LTCG on a >1y sale, not ordinary income as in a traditional IRA._", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["FEMDX (this fund)", "+52.0%", "+6.9%", "-31.8%", "0.32", "+4.6% (t=+2.3)", "TAXABLE (defers to LTCG)"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 99pp."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3293, "start": "2013-07-19", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.30911279441367, "alpha_ann": 0.03692026986041802, "alpha_t": 2.995925339165849, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.09029815801676896, "t": 7.663954710187875}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.09223824565579981, "t": 12.504626094504278}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.0032685403002459964, "t": -0.19904865076774655}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.05116116023112707, "t": -0.9782722912236177}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.014800226089819513, "t": -1.4363967296771438}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.06834261892186837, "t": 2.1260633862493705}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.04374376452470683, "t": -1.7954797952260622}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.0063540551763906225, "t": -0.3741197769467269}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.0394477330185936, "t": -1.5554369812063868}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.008921871665778862, "t": -0.8963976420523517}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.015448066308265177, "t": 0.6389586968830556}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.012222929530971269, "t": 0.3042108829381673}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.04684533243561645, "t": 7.4725323894606674}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.009771461254473706, "t": -1.7125888455679728}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.04161784778394535, "t": 3.2206993556098427}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.016666738243689208, "t": 1.5232835944288257}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.0038072763488789553, "t": -0.23833211192980042}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.019493745961149514, "t": 1.3529934819008762}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.01747195475386669, "t": -1.4011757730739103}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.004466631131786459, "t": -0.44683416040038315}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.03924065053085163, "t": 3.257881237049894}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.00047080486573077354, "t": 0.07954482130612846}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.2805739477006386, "alpha_ann": 0.044589434973854085, "alpha_t": 2.133082521967532, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.10541249341274044, "t": 5.228421479901708}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.06815263250928748, "t": 5.245068707309686}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.01342342633668715, "t": 0.5262241348134645}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.05987098047864307, "t": -0.6363582015872975}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.02535346587061228, "t": -1.549270412405593}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.06941435176388172, "t": 1.271122226834313}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.17020583935309294, "t": -4.653424073147283}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.020453707402299452, "t": 0.33403407181180184}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.02628827089321974, "t": -0.6308605902518483}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.0009748830462145215, "t": -0.06932668057015552}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.13430196980108502, "t": 3.507627592096585}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.02009694118042339, "t": -0.3182838173308647}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.05367301082557665, "t": 5.513937014614023}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.010263200991518324, "t": -1.2056835993859376}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.07717823882647348, "t": 3.1453353578175127}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.022861407139422883, "t": -1.3475715174174587}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.01387778365041784, "t": 0.43711794289894745}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.012962480119455236, "t": 0.4453778439384321}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.04376025124541183, "t": -2.223206972214546}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.003855356971095472, "t": -0.22366875226200586}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.06461054241201651, "t": 3.385611810933228}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.04912594110385499, "t": -4.782187586656961}]}, "identified": ["vwo", "fxe", "tlt", "efa"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 31% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.31). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 9% of international developed equities (t +8); strong an emerging-market tilt (\u03b2 +0.09, t +13); clear tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 +0.05, t +7); modest tilt toward banks/financials (\u03b2 +0.04, t +3); modest long-euro position (exposed to EUR moves) (\u03b2 +0.04, t +3); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (\u03b2 +0.07, t +2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.17, t -5); modest high-dividend tilt - a systematic preference for income-paying names (\u03b2 +0.13, t +4); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (\u03b2 -0.04, t -2); modest tilt away from energy (\u03b2 -0.05, t -5) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +3.7%/year (t +3.0) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "etsix": {"meta": {"sym": "etsix", "name": "Eaton Vance Strategic Income Fund", "group": "candidate", "order": 10, "verdict": "CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+31.4%", "cagr": "+5.2%", "mdd": "-12.6%", "r2_5y": "0.38", "alpha_5y": "+2.4% (t=+2.3)"}, "narrative": ["ETSIX is the Eaton Vance Strategic Income Fund. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Fund/ETF holdings. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 1998 it has compounded at +5.2% per year (a +327% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 13%. Over the last five years it returned +31.4% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +7.2%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+0.6%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-5.4%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.38). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.4% per year over the last five years (t = 2.3) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +1.7% per year (t = 2.6). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Fund/ETF holdings - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: 62% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 47% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.17 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["1998-01-23", "1998-01-30", "1998-02-06", "1998-02-13", "1998-02-23", "1998-03-02", "1998-03-09", "1998-03-16", "1998-03-23", "1998-03-30", "1998-04-06", "1998-04-14", "1998-04-21", "1998-04-28", "1998-05-05", "1998-05-12", "1998-05-19", "1998-05-27", "1998-06-03", "1998-06-10", "1998-06-17", "1998-06-24", "1998-07-01", "1998-07-09", "1998-07-16", "1998-07-23", "1998-07-30", "1998-08-06", "1998-08-13", "1998-08-20", "1998-08-27", "1998-09-03", "1998-09-11", "1998-09-18", "1998-09-25", "1998-10-02", "1998-10-09", "1998-10-16", "1998-10-23", "1998-10-30", "1998-11-06", "1998-11-13", "1998-11-20", "1998-11-30", "1998-12-07", "1998-12-14", "1998-12-21", "1998-12-29", "1999-01-06", "1999-01-13", "1999-01-21", "1999-01-28", "1999-02-04", "1999-02-11", "1999-02-19", "1999-02-26", "1999-03-05", "1999-03-12", "1999-03-19", "1999-03-26", "1999-04-05", "1999-04-12", "1999-04-19", "1999-04-26", "1999-05-03", "1999-05-10", "1999-05-17", "1999-05-24", "1999-06-01", "1999-06-08", "1999-06-15", "1999-06-22", "1999-06-29", "1999-07-07", "1999-07-14", "1999-07-21", "1999-07-28", "1999-08-04", "1999-08-11", "1999-08-18", "1999-08-25", "1999-09-01", "1999-09-09", "1999-09-16", "1999-09-23", "1999-09-30", "1999-10-07", "1999-10-14", "1999-10-21", "1999-10-28", "1999-11-04", "1999-11-11", "1999-11-18", "1999-11-26", "1999-12-03", "1999-12-10", "1999-12-17", "1999-12-27", "2000-01-03", "2000-01-10", "2000-01-18", "2000-01-25", "2000-02-01", "2000-02-08", "2000-02-15", "2000-02-23", "2000-03-01", "2000-03-08", "2000-03-15", "2000-03-22", "2000-03-29", "2000-04-05", "2000-04-12", "2000-04-19", "2000-04-27", "2000-05-04", "2000-05-11", "2000-05-18", "2000-05-25", "2000-06-02", "2000-06-09", "2000-06-16", "2000-06-23", "2000-06-30", "2000-07-10", "2000-07-17", "2000-07-24", "2000-07-31", "2000-08-07", "2000-08-14", "2000-08-21", "2000-08-28", "2000-09-05", "2000-09-12", "2000-09-19", 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"+1.6%"], ["2025", "+12.1%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+8.0%"], ["2026", "+3.3%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "+1.1%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.38, alpha = +2.4% (t = +2.3)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.30, alpha = +1.7% (t = +2.6).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vmbix` +0.05, `vweax` +0.04, `ief` +0.03, `agg` +0.03, `vwo` +0.02, `tip` +0.02 - net cash +0.71.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE - idiosyncratic alpha, complements portfolio"], "reference": {"rows": [["VMBIX +0.21", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["VEA +0.04", "Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard)", "developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter"], ["QQQ -0.03", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["VWEAX +0.11", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["VWO +0.03", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"], ["GSG -0.01", "Broad commodities (SPDR)", "same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.34 \u2192 ~66% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.13 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["ETSIX (this fund)", "+31.4%", "+5.2%", "-12.6%", "0.38", "+2.4% (t=+2.3)", "IRA"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 120pp."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3293, "start": "2013-07-19", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.14455326156848247, "alpha_ann": 0.021382552593808734, "alpha_t": 2.645483828573297, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.05308882212065055, "t": 6.869997370968492}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.016736599066708935, "t": 3.459444210865604}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.012341751150349203, "t": 1.14593932197999}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.05335220474540534, "t": 1.5554325448985484}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.015030730544388951, "t": 2.2241577666687857}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.01846258490474843, "t": -0.875702399073286}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.04223981591310158, "t": -2.6434179017270454}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.021502353150071145, "t": 1.9303013661522566}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.04271519683805237, "t": -2.567983475340321}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.011006742433008495, "t": -1.6860986473032193}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.023020561102050842, "t": -1.4517572662586733}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.008897306771467332, "t": -0.3376272149413888}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.011150552189151253, "t": 2.7119226500718585}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.0030754193585373836, "t": 0.8218212812199864}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.035890857701572965, "t": -4.234809207518328}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.02289159265713384, "t": 3.189962679185173}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.02702892823997235, "t": 2.5797429152899154}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.02777380356443932, "t": -2.939105696609158}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.025475570442736108, "t": 3.114974410951666}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.021290539960724702, "t": 3.2473746607793488}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.0029335702901968456, "t": 0.371342785971084}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.008169243736270133, "t": -2.104419243528977}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.3132735798536809, "alpha_ann": 0.022819247944794528, "alpha_t": 2.0490178097558505, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.026299767598289153, "t": 2.448494499390068}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.02819175379268252, "t": 4.072483726356961}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.011460024745017144, "t": 0.8432602952710913}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.07192055801305434, "t": 1.4348517825146803}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.011087031264962795, "t": 1.2716684024103568}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.0030079328917990487, "t": -0.10338913484959353}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.05089391364929232, "t": -2.6117568541515555}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.049676610385635304, "t": -1.5227878437404267}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.04645506300940443, "t": -2.092537009867988}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.0019439221920304326, "t": 0.25947497816228526}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.005323850333952922, "t": 0.26099107189785015}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.0033897709901616695, "t": 0.10076823998512076}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.0595033596651257, "t": 11.474031774143578}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.011469068928315526, "t": 2.528991676566005}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.0338792225596422, "t": 2.591637448877314}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.03236668590217519, "t": 3.5810947851767976}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.05056245975255708, "t": 2.989340818364063}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.038987185585083066, "t": -2.5143811287112476}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.0024421702106126285, "t": 0.23288672645755829}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.013454906493372196, "t": 1.4651770954368324}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.018663238602364154, "t": 1.8356484011970977}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.008708963510456745, "t": -1.5912957885094179}]}, "identified": ["efa", "tlt", "gld", "fxe", "xlu", "fxu"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 14% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.14). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 5% of international developed equities (t +7); modest short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (\u03b2 -0.04, t -4); modest an emerging-market tilt (\u03b2 +0.02, t +3); modest tilt toward healthcare (defensive) (\u03b2 +0.02, t +3); modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (\u03b2 +0.02, t +3); modest tilt toward consumer staples (defensive) (\u03b2 +0.03, t +3); modest tilt away from utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (\u03b2 -0.03, t -3); modest tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 +0.01, t +3); modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.04, t -3); modest long-AUD position (AUD carry) (\u03b2 +0.03, t +3); modest anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (\u03b2 -0.04, t -3); modest tilt toward US small caps (\u03b2 +0.02, t +2); modest tilt away from energy (\u03b2 -0.01, t -2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt toward gold (\u03b2 +0.01, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +2.1%/year (t +2.6) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "hicox": {"meta": {"sym": "hicox", "name": "COLORADO BONDSHARES A TAX EXEMPT FUND", "group": "candidate", "order": 11, "verdict": "CANDIDATE (semi-alpha: mostly explained by net exposure)", "objective": ""}, "stats": {"t5y": "+23.9%", "cagr": "+5.7%", "mdd": "-8.4%", "r2_5y": "0.26", "alpha_5y": "+1.4% (t=+1.2)"}, "narrative": ["HICOX is the COLORADO BONDSHARES A TAX EXEMPT FUND. Per its latest N-PORT its actual holdings are mostly Municipal bond and Corporate bond. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster with 163 other funds.", "Since 1987 it has compounded at +5.7% per year (a +774% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 8%. Over the last five years it returned +23.9% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +5.8%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+1.1%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-6.6%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest.", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.26). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +1.4% per year over the last five years (t = 1.2) - at that t-stat it is not yet clearly different from a lucky streak. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.6% per year (t = 4.4). The N-PORT is consistent with that: the alpha is plausibly coming from Municipal bond and Corporate bond - asset classes our sleeve set either does not model directly or models too coarsely. That is an interpretation from the holdings, not something the returns prove.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 74% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way. The alpha is also not steady: in 46% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE (munis)). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is PYFIX (5y +41.5%, alpha t = +3.8); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.04 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["1987-06-04", "1987-06-15", "1987-06-24", "1987-07-06", "1987-07-15", "1987-07-24", "1987-08-04", "1987-08-13", "1987-08-24", "1987-09-02", "1987-09-14", "1987-09-23", "1987-10-02", "1987-10-13", "1987-10-22", "1987-11-02", "1987-11-11", "1987-11-20", "1987-12-02", "1987-12-11", "1987-12-22", "1988-01-04", "1988-01-13", "1988-01-22", "1988-02-02", "1988-02-11", "1988-02-23", "1988-03-03", "1988-03-14", "1988-03-23", "1988-04-04", "1988-04-13", "1988-04-22", "1988-05-03", "1988-05-12", "1988-05-23", "1988-06-02", "1988-06-13", "1988-06-22", "1988-07-01", "1988-07-13", "1988-07-22", "1988-08-02", "1988-08-11", "1988-08-22", "1988-08-31", "1988-09-12", "1988-09-21", "1988-09-30", "1988-10-11", "1988-10-20", "1988-10-31", "1988-11-09", "1988-11-18", "1988-11-30", "1988-12-09", "1988-12-20", "1988-12-30", "1989-01-11", "1989-01-20", "1989-01-31", "1989-02-09", "1989-02-21", "1989-03-02", "1989-03-13", "1989-03-22", "1989-04-03", "1989-04-12", "1989-04-21", "1989-05-02", "1989-05-11", "1989-05-22", "1989-06-01", "1989-06-12", "1989-06-21", "1989-06-30", "1989-07-12", "1989-07-21", "1989-08-01", "1989-08-10", "1989-08-21", "1989-08-30", "1989-09-11", "1989-09-20", "1989-09-29", "1989-10-10", "1989-10-19", "1989-10-30", "1989-11-08", "1989-11-17", "1989-11-29", "1989-12-08", "1989-12-19", "1989-12-29", "1990-01-10", "1990-01-19", "1990-01-30", "1990-02-08", "1990-02-20", "1990-03-01", "1990-03-12", "1990-03-21", "1990-03-30", "1990-04-10", "1990-04-20", "1990-05-01", "1990-05-10", "1990-05-21", "1990-05-31", "1990-06-11", "1990-06-20", "1990-06-29", "1990-07-11", "1990-07-20", "1990-07-31", "1990-08-09", "1990-08-20", "1990-08-29", "1990-09-10", "1990-09-19", "1990-09-28", "1990-10-09", "1990-10-18", "1990-10-29", "1990-11-07", "1990-11-16", "1990-11-28", "1990-12-07", "1990-12-18", "1990-12-28", "1991-01-09", "1991-01-18", "1991-01-29", "1991-02-07", "1991-02-19", "1991-02-28", "1991-03-11", "1991-03-20", "1991-04-01", "1991-04-10", "1991-04-19", "1991-04-30", "1991-05-09", "1991-05-20", "1991-05-30", "1991-06-10", "1991-06-19", "1991-06-28", "1991-07-10", "1991-07-19", "1991-07-30", "1991-08-08", "1991-08-19", "1991-08-28", "1991-09-09", "1991-09-18", "1991-09-27", "1991-10-08", "1991-10-17", "1991-10-28", "1991-11-06", "1991-11-15", "1991-11-26", "1991-12-06", "1991-12-17", "1991-12-27", "1992-01-08", "1992-01-17", "1992-01-28", "1992-02-06", "1992-02-18", "1992-02-27", "1992-03-09", "1992-03-18", "1992-03-27", "1992-04-07", "1992-04-16", "1992-04-28", "1992-05-07", "1992-05-18", "1992-05-28", "1992-06-08", "1992-06-17", "1992-06-26", "1992-07-08", "1992-07-17", "1992-07-28", "1992-08-06", "1992-08-17", "1992-08-26", "1992-09-04", "1992-09-16", "1992-09-25", "1992-10-06", "1992-10-15", "1992-10-26", "1992-11-04", "1992-11-13", "1992-11-24", "1992-12-04", "1992-12-15", "1992-12-24", "1993-01-06", "1993-01-15", "1993-01-26", "1993-02-04", 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829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+774.4%", "+30.2%", "+768.4%", "+744.2%"], ["Last 5y", "+23.9%", "+19.2%", "+123.7%", "+4.7%"], ["Last 1y", "+5.8%", "+3.6%", "+20.7%", "+2.1%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-6.6%", "+0.6%", "-24.5%", "-7.2%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-3.1%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-4.4%"], ["2024 vol spike", "+1.1%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "+0.8%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-1.8%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-2.3%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "+0.1%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-0.5%"], ["2021", "+4.8%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+4.9%"], ["2022", "-4.8%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-6.2%"], ["2023", "+7.0%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+2.1%"], ["2024", "+7.7%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+2.5%"], ["2025", "+5.3%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+1.2%"], ["2026", "+2.1%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "-0.2%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.26, alpha = +1.4% (t = +1.2)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.18, alpha = +2.6% (t = +4.4).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.05, `vmbix` +0.03, `pff` +0.03, `vblix` +0.03, `vnq` +0.02, `ief` +0.02 - net cash +0.77.", "**Screen verdict:** CANDIDATE (semi-alpha: mostly explained by net exposure)"], "reference": {"rows": [["VMBIX +0.16", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["VWEAX +0.19", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["IVV -0.04", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["VNQ +0.02", "US REITs", "physical real estate: rents vs rates, leverage in the property sector; equity-like income"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.33 \u2192 ~67% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 1.0 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account (munis - tax-exempt interest is wasted in an IRA). _tax-exempt interest - keep OUT of the IRA_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["HICOX (this fund)", "+23.9%", "+5.7%", "-8.4%", "0.26", "+1.4% (t=+1.2)", "TAXABLE (munis)"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 127pp."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3293, "start": "2013-07-19", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.15171933895426082, "alpha_ann": 0.027004499477332165, "alpha_t": 3.8735510902245993, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": -0.0009041205155786963, "t": -0.13564612733080134}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.005816285602221422, "t": 1.393838437748111}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.007915388988676665, "t": -0.8520884790446475}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.10369652246435851, "t": 3.5050207790267325}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.005427262463690774, "t": 0.9310948391287713}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.06813666661043281, "t": 3.7469035268304935}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.002771755396327183, "t": 0.2011065917456415}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.06804137064827835, "t": -7.081736697809392}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.003034948844283106, "t": -0.21153818906636337}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.00030340744890430376, "t": -0.053886255907353915}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.033281862628110205, "t": 2.433398978329639}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.06368582357358049, "t": -2.8018781530713057}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.038083595672216274, "t": 10.738570271912563}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.004149844480989931, "t": -1.2856787181102967}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.011425083750226757, "t": 1.5629208976300992}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.03235097214106014, "t": 5.226663284807069}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.00845533836371559, "t": -0.9356344176390131}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.014558383723461712, "t": 1.7861609948670325}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.00780023987336191, "t": -1.1057733488338044}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.013875713101117054, "t": -2.4537404786960306}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.010295192262531044, "t": -1.5109167935523586}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.012286172549409197, "t": -3.669396270188098}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.18375042652600282, "alpha_ann": 0.016203142656438584, "alpha_t": 1.3139904890336436, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.006051091280067157, "t": 0.5087793618288001}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.013581284329303814, "t": 1.7718488258375384}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.0027044103358388394, "t": -0.1797203451216215}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.10159743850839623, "t": 1.8305656635647345}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.009314958548444639, "t": 0.9649128606050346}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.05560078504432713, "t": 1.7259819200479942}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.026550516182719863, "t": -1.2305192820618769}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.08397303549231198, "t": -2.324747873500658}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.005613681344461126, "t": 0.22836861141431594}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.009106169289785056, "t": -1.097743530445389}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.01698028886047873, "t": 0.7517846381605826}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.07455529699264285, "t": -2.0016142270695285}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.061279610206349866, "t": 10.67183532096806}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.0004194442044698409, "t": -0.08352990650339454}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.00744853924601614, "t": 0.5145889799400181}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.01805229922428687, "t": 1.8038427135636437}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.03529998738262859, "t": 1.8848220302201428}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.01799340919650996, "t": -1.048024027835837}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.0031188998703611704, "t": 0.2686079109798199}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.009795107404536528, "t": -0.9633125082585668}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.002436642473602962, "t": 0.21644265982887156}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.007520492884790197, "t": -1.2410215050739866}]}, "identified": ["tlt", "xlu", "fxy", "xlp"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 15% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.15). The statistically identified tilt stack: strong tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 +0.04, t +11); clear underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.07, t -7); clear long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (\u03b2 +0.03, t +5); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (\u03b2 +0.07, t +4); modest tilt away from energy (\u03b2 -0.01, t -4); modest tilt toward US value equities (\u03b2 +0.10, t +4); modest tilt away from high dividend (appreciation-tilted) (\u03b2 -0.06, t -3); modest tilt away from healthcare (defensive) (\u03b2 -0.01, t -2); modest high-dividend tilt - a systematic preference for income-paying names (\u03b2 +0.03, t +2).", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +2.7%/year (t +3.9) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "atesx": {"meta": {"sym": "atesx", "name": "Anchor Risk Mgd Equity Strategies Instl", "group": "shortlist", "order": 12, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund seeks to provide long-term growth of capital while providing current income."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+28.2%", "cagr": "+8.3%", "mdd": "-12.9%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["ATESX is the Anchor Risk Mgd Equity Strategies Instl. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks to provide long-term growth of capital while providing current income. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster.", "Since 2016 it has compounded at +8.3% per year (a +121% total return) with +11% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 13%. Over the last five years it returned +28.2% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.0%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.42). The loadings that do show up - a small tilt to trend-following across futures, a small tilt to growth/tech-heavy us equities, a small tilt to the tech sector index - are minor tilts, not the story. Most of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic rather than benchmark-like. The honest five-year read of its excess return is -1.6% per year (t = -0.5): over the recent window this fund is NOT measurably adding to its fitted reference. Over the full history the same estimate is -0.6% per year (t = -0.2). The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.85 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 58% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: taxable (N-PORT holdings says TAXABLE)."], "chart": {"dates": ["2016-09-06", "2016-09-08", "2016-09-12", "2016-09-14", "2016-09-16", "2016-09-20", "2016-09-22", "2016-09-26", "2016-09-28", "2016-09-30", "2016-10-04", "2016-10-06", "2016-10-10", "2016-10-12", "2016-10-14", "2016-10-18", "2016-10-20", "2016-10-24", "2016-10-26", "2016-10-28", "2016-11-01", "2016-11-03", "2016-11-07", "2016-11-09", "2016-11-11", "2016-11-15", "2016-11-17", "2016-11-21", "2016-11-23", "2016-11-28", "2016-11-30", "2016-12-02", "2016-12-06", "2016-12-08", "2016-12-12", "2016-12-14", "2016-12-16", 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786.7532233211904, 776.1572799883932, 782.6432386193211, 774.3443627584163, 779.6704218270236, 770.7185962217277, 753.2539760920974, 746.204477374851, 731.6175305238098, 743.9803742064752, 770.6929619814466, 805.3990946915524, 809.8249135200988, 817.4232344841527, 836.5714255698672, 838.2424227975112, 845.7955555452916, 860.337383235379, 838.4794183902876, 856.229333214513, 834.4826119610877, 847.784251393242, 847.9766813996756, 858.5387683809412, 850.0936175043507, 829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+120.8%", "+25.0%", "+312.7%", "+95.8%"], ["Last 5y", "+28.2%", "+19.2%", "+124.4%", "+9.0%"], ["Last 1y", "+4.0%", "+3.6%", "+21.0%", "+0.4%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-2.2%", "+0.6%", "-24.5%", "-2.8%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-5.7%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-7.0%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-5.2%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "-5.5%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-4.9%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-5.5%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-2.7%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-3.3%"], ["2021", "+12.6%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+12.7%"], ["2022", "-10.0%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-11.4%"], ["2023", "+8.2%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+3.3%"], ["2024", "+8.3%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+3.1%"], ["2025", "+5.6%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+1.5%"], ["2026", "+2.7%", "+2.3%", "+12.7%", "+0.4%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = -0.6% (t = -0.2).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `dbmf` +0.13, `qqq` +0.13, `xlk` +0.12, `iwm` +0.07, `ivv` +0.05, `tip` +0.05 - net cash +0.55.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.85 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Holdings (May 2026): QQQ 65% + SPY 29% + MMF 0.6%, with 4.9% 'other assets in excess of liabilities' \u2014 an options overlay. But the rolling beta to those SAME holdings stays 0.13\u20130.89 (median 0.30, never above 1): the 'risk managed' in the name is real \u2014 a systematic equity de-risking overlay. Decomposition: one TACTICAL US-equity sleeve, not a static mix.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["QQQ +0.45", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["IVV -0.22", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.22 \u2192 ~78% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 1.0 (from actual N-PORT holdings (high confidence)). Keep in the **taxable** account.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["ATESX (this fund)", "+28.2%", "+8.3%", "-12.9%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "TAXABLE"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 136pp; meaningfully more volatile than the calmest peer."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 2503, "start": "2016-09-07", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.3361926197205144, "alpha_ann": 0.018373960435239527, "alpha_t": 0.6392151852952566, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": -0.06418494575724773, "t": -2.2782438242836336}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.02867128083983814, "t": 1.6331307661900303}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.2618462094719854, "t": 7.022220974655423}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.013305203066837766, "t": -0.1119332849454551}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.06174799043306308, "t": 2.641490795189876}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.22074124338808834, "t": -3.0436033827640614}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.01157783298184534, "t": -0.21997697107457892}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.14446675862346375, "t": 4.051229402526265}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.10113524549537455, "t": 1.6921165952893056}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.056246929267163355, "t": 2.5721290149878784}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.07196948035442981, "t": 1.3201592059361484}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.10657647241188967, "t": 1.1859644104796163}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": -0.02233076299243244, "t": -1.5772555389251985}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.023708217293998888, "t": 1.7726842506329314}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.05560054124629495, "t": 1.6777352828209615}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.01407835227278094, "t": -0.5401919687649772}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.012281840553175511, "t": 0.339446159837998}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.04269499612748854, "t": -1.3114900615560479}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.045090893145319694, "t": -1.6398456729667572}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.05786446584881949, "t": -2.426975017193405}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.1187454457616637, "t": -4.4352376038517205}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.05204657791107402, "t": -3.9248930933934116}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.37526510576390104, "alpha_ann": -0.018227762651880978, "alpha_t": -0.4850225807055102, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": -0.02821145061858045, "t": -0.7783175566749881}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.00411733696002955, "t": 0.17625354536099508}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.1935483206961557, "t": 4.220361878639807}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.32240467889047836, "t": 1.9060729421839941}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.11943360104134235, "t": 4.059469868947459}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.24755143302348007, "t": -2.521485008357305}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.04963639694526791, "t": 0.7548337859066284}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.16404943375189135, "t": -1.4902062118519213}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.16344845656836715, "t": 2.181750607578274}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.04111565082461304, "t": 1.6263273390227915}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.012323370388251228, "t": 0.17902492565551958}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.15211323465224003, "t": 1.3399990899014032}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": -0.018759681233822118, "t": -1.0719738778582415}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.02764272227989809, "t": 1.806276513192761}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.06018064495478116, "t": 1.364211907487707}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.027507506607879966, "t": -0.9018888047885025}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.04792320952701944, "t": -0.8396094582499112}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.008846736623999589, "t": 0.16907387579714708}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.08957071482734626, "t": -2.531156710107453}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.09115758738509137, "t": -2.9416191666818627}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.15420894125376053, "t": -4.494653683539871}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.0365353181578779, "t": -1.9782515892971337}]}, "identified": ["vug", "xlf", "mtum", "usmv", "dflvx", "xle"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2016-to-2026 the fit explains 34% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.34). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 6% of international developed equities (t -2); clear tilt toward US growth equities (\u03b2 +0.26, t +7); modest tilt away from banks/financials (\u03b2 -0.12, t -4); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.14, t +4); modest tilt away from energy (\u03b2 -0.05, t -4); modest cap-weight concentration (tilt away from equal-weight/small) (\u03b2 -0.22, t -3); modest tilt toward US small caps (\u03b2 +0.06, t +3); modest momentum tilt (preference for recent winners) (\u03b2 +0.06, t +3); modest tilt away from healthcare (defensive) (\u03b2 -0.06, t -2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest quality tilt (high-ROE, low-debt, stable earnings) (\u03b2 +0.16, t +2); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (\u03b2 -0.09, t -3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is +1.8%/year (t +0.6) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "atrfx": {"meta": {"sym": "atrfx", "name": "Catalyst Systematic Alpha I", "group": "shortlist", "order": 13, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund seeks to provide a total return that exceeds the BNP Paribas Catalyst Systematic Alpha Index II (the Benchmark )."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+47.5%", "cagr": "+5.0%", "mdd": "-35.2%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["ATRFX is the Catalyst Systematic Alpha I. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks to provide a total return that exceeds the BNP Paribas Catalyst Systematic Alpha Index II (the Benchmark ). Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster.", "Since 2014 it has compounded at +5.0% per year (a +80% total return) with +15% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 35%. Over the last five years it returned +47.5% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +7.0%. It was positive in 5 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.31). The loadings that do show up - exposure to trend-following across futures, exposure to international developed markets, a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds - are minor tilts, not the story. Most of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic rather than benchmark-like. The honest five-year read of its excess return is -5.0% per year (t = -0.8): over the recent window this fund is NOT measurably adding to its fitted reference. Over the full history the same estimate is +0.5% per year (t = 0.1). The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 1.83 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 69% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: IRA (N-PORT holdings says IRA)."], "chart": {"dates": ["2014-08-01", "2014-08-06", "2014-08-11", "2014-08-14", "2014-08-19", "2014-08-22", "2014-08-27", "2014-09-02", "2014-09-05", "2014-09-10", "2014-09-16", "2014-09-19", "2014-09-24", "2014-09-29", "2014-10-02", "2014-10-07", "2014-10-10", "2014-10-15", "2014-10-20", "2014-10-23", "2014-10-28", "2014-10-31", "2014-11-05", "2014-11-10", "2014-11-13", "2014-11-18", "2014-11-21", "2014-11-26", "2014-12-02", "2014-12-05", "2014-12-10", "2014-12-15", "2014-12-18", "2014-12-23", "2014-12-29", "2015-01-02", "2015-01-07", "2015-01-12", "2015-01-15", "2015-01-21", "2015-01-26", "2015-01-29", "2015-02-03", "2015-02-06", "2015-02-11", "2015-02-17", "2015-02-20", "2015-02-25", "2015-03-02", "2015-03-05", "2015-03-10", "2015-03-13", "2015-03-18", "2015-03-23", "2015-03-26", "2015-03-31", "2015-04-06", "2015-04-09", "2015-04-14", "2015-04-17", "2015-04-22", "2015-04-27", "2015-04-30", "2015-05-05", "2015-05-08", "2015-05-13", "2015-05-18", "2015-05-21", "2015-05-27", "2015-06-01", "2015-06-04", "2015-06-09", "2015-06-12", "2015-06-17", "2015-06-22", "2015-06-25", "2015-06-30", "2015-07-06", "2015-07-09", "2015-07-14", "2015-07-17", "2015-07-22", "2015-07-27", "2015-07-30", "2015-08-04", "2015-08-07", "2015-08-12", "2015-08-17", "2015-08-20", "2015-08-25", "2015-08-28", "2015-09-02", "2015-09-08", "2015-09-11", "2015-09-16", "2015-09-21", "2015-09-24", "2015-09-29", "2015-10-02", "2015-10-07", "2015-10-12", "2015-10-15", "2015-10-20", "2015-10-23", "2015-10-28", "2015-11-02", "2015-11-05", "2015-11-10", "2015-11-13", 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681.847141725606, 694.3316631455247, 701.446456497594, 701.6925039975107, 712.9688267532897, 713.1701705562245, 711.2460787899008, 725.0281360805487, 717.3316309046147, 726.9187858272583, 729.6147394662788, 739.3920444377547, 744.7053894031736, 741.9227215276541, 754.5794272927635, 756.8460232558393, 745.0194960148061, 757.3509014141805, 766.6190445333908, 755.7239184623767, 757.8894978134142, 735.8075277000132, 770.714519693762, 773.2166610879026, 768.7958176385309, 769.6264093624704, 777.9814600277924, 782.463108384158, 784.6925310762523, 775.0650240738165, 786.7532233211904, 776.1572799883932, 782.6432386193211, 774.3443627584163, 779.6704218270236, 770.7185962217277, 753.2539760920974, 746.204477374851, 731.6175305238098, 743.9803742064752, 770.6929619814466, 805.3990946915524, 809.8249135200988, 817.4232344841527, 836.5714255698672, 838.2424227975112, 845.7955555452916, 860.337383235379, 838.4794183902876, 856.229333214513, 834.4826119610877, 847.784251393242, 847.9766813996756, 858.5387683809412, 850.0936175043507, 829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+80.3%", "+25.0%", "+387.2%", "+55.4%"], ["Last 5y", "+47.5%", "+19.2%", "+124.4%", "+28.4%"], ["Last 1y", "+7.0%", "+3.6%", "+21.0%", "+3.4%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-9.9%", "+0.6%", "-24.5%", "-10.5%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-8.2%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-9.5%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-19.0%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "-19.3%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-23.5%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-24.1%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-17.0%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-17.6%"], ["2021", "+25.2%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+25.3%"], ["2022", "-3.6%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-5.0%"], ["2023", "+22.7%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+17.8%"], ["2024", "-3.9%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "-9.1%"], ["2025", "+2.7%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "-1.4%"], ["2026", "-0.4%", "+2.3%", "+12.7%", "-2.6%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = +0.5% (t = +0.1).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `dbmf` +0.17, `efa` +0.15, `vweax` +0.14, `xlp` -0.13, `fxy` -0.11, `dbb` +0.10 - net cash +0.52.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 1.83 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Systematic alpha over short-duration IG credit + cash. Returns are dominated by idiosyncratic credit/derivatives P&L (R\u00b2 \u2264 0.22 vs bond sleeves) and the best-fit weights are knife-edge. Read as: cash-like carry + systematic alpha, no meaningful static sleeve.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["IVV +0.17", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["VEA +0.41", "Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard)", "developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter"], ["FXY -0.26", "Long yen vs the dollar", "USD/JPY: carries the Japan rate differential; carry-trade crowding risk"], ["FXE -0.30", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"], ["GLD +0.13", "Gold", "crisis/inflation hedge; real-rate sensitive, no yield"], ["DJP -0.09", "Natural gas", "a single volatile commodity: winter/hedging cycles"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.07 \u2192 ~93% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.16 (from actual N-PORT holdings (high confidence)). Recommended account: **IRA**. _unclassified: US govt 18%; CTA/systematic: 60/40 if section-1256 regulated futures_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["ATRFX (this fund)", "+47.5%", "+5.0%", "-35.2%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "IRA"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 117pp; meaningfully more volatile than the calmest peer."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3030, "start": "2014-08-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.16404539356457792, "alpha_ann": -0.000790386699652098, "alpha_t": -0.02011830787139785, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.16043358852210987, "t": 4.33121657751163}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": -0.061506389739714444, "t": -2.6038563680208187}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.013084818624216064, "t": -0.2516618819085744}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.019801325668402595, "t": -0.12025500927694655}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.01962066786917205, "t": 0.6063088777284608}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.19680346224575637, "t": -1.952812751620562}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.37675594378038846, "t": -4.980078011813079}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.15942084906768172, "t": 3.037708294988547}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.27019491125049244, "t": 3.2872613512728144}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.10232738309150616, "t": 3.2904183139243206}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.27248763686252814, "t": -3.606361236432912}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.5577566090910772, "t": 4.4433568501699146}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.027352530579797904, "t": 1.3939884001824552}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.074646408955685, "t": 4.078114346176982}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.02655782017507486, "t": -0.65710490718164}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.06163690635890313, "t": -1.7867426690228407}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.11633725140724482, "t": -2.31804652229121}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.1691834318065721, "t": 3.7310332039624163}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.031812527529536457, "t": -0.8165220693948476}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.04679985168519546, "t": -1.4829256712442345}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.06992838923934275, "t": -1.8578849414733847}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.06132647809781615, "t": -3.3324459776564486}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.3066616256823791, "alpha_ann": -0.045834667679264814, "alpha_t": -0.7252914140462875, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.3199581359081117, "t": 5.249457491371522}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.017348950837389295, "t": 0.441656395222068}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.08291058418168144, "t": 1.0751278586067916}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.8158589684022136, "t": 2.8684225541366453}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.014840896414330595, "t": -0.29998033476009267}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.14071728892093863, "t": -0.852370206863822}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.4685788854597889, "t": -4.237636035295837}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.30402136903582855, "t": -1.642349567090048}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.12823224833179994, "t": 1.0179147203679537}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.06114004633770247, "t": 1.4381904922336908}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.1840285896877137, "t": -1.5898609943397313}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.35693013286527997, "t": 1.869866373995582}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.016485141566381575, "t": 0.5601976533271296}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.09551481673086834, "t": 3.7116244536087204}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.22802061262368217, "t": -3.0738945335672634}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.20850476783154792, "t": -4.065440569087141}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.09098926490238995, "t": -0.948006770306593}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.08444049597591408, "t": 0.959696789907928}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.11613907461658537, "t": -1.9517366239296732}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.042878658296622, "t": -0.8228575682952515}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.05427194382677929, "t": -0.9407016638800683}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.06355562046972685, "t": -2.0465032980873366}]}, "identified": ["mtum", "gld", "usmv", "qual", "xlu", "xle"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2014-to-2026 the fit explains 16% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.16). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 16% of international developed equities (t +4); modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.38, t -5); modest dividend-appreciation tilt (growing payers) (\u03b2 +0.56, t +4); modest tilt toward gold (\u03b2 +0.07, t +4); modest tilt toward utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (\u03b2 +0.17, t +4); modest underweight to high-dividend names (\u03b2 -0.27, t -4); modest tilt away from energy (\u03b2 -0.06, t -3); modest momentum tilt (preference for recent winners) (\u03b2 +0.10, t +3); modest quality tilt (high-ROE, low-debt, stable earnings) (\u03b2 +0.27, t +3); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.16, t +3); modest developed-only tilt (away from emerging markets) (\u03b2 -0.06, t -3); modest short-AUD position (USD carry) (\u03b2 -0.12, t -2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt toward US value equities (\u03b2 +0.82, t +3); modest short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (\u03b2 -0.23, t -3); modest short-yen position that carries the USD/JPY rate differential (\u03b2 -0.21, t -4) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is -0.1%/year (t -0.0) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "cvsix": {"meta": {"sym": "cvsix", "name": "Calamos Market Neutral Income A", "group": "shortlist", "order": 14, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund's investment strategy can be characterized as market neutral because it seeks to achieve maximum current income while maintaining a low correlation to the fluctuations of the US equity market as a whole."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+30.1%", "cagr": "+5.5%", "mdd": "-20.8%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["CVSIX is the Calamos Market Neutral Income A. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment strategy can be characterized as market neutral because it seeks to achieve maximum current income while maintaining a low correlation to the fluctuations of the US equity market as a whole. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +1.98' cluster.", "Since 1990 it has compounded at +5.5% per year (a +590% total return) with +5% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 21%. Over the last five years it returned +30.1% versus +17.8% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +6.4%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The fit is strong: 75% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of -0.6% per year (t = -0.9) - is statistically indistinguishable from zero, i.e. the strategy is not clearly adding anything on top of the mix it owns. The curated decomposition's read: partially explainable \u2014 material active/timing residual. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.49 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 25% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE (defers to LTCG))."], "chart": {"dates": ["1990-08-31", "1990-09-12", "1990-09-21", "1990-10-02", "1990-10-11", "1990-10-22", "1990-10-31", "1990-11-09", "1990-11-20", "1990-11-30", "1990-12-11", "1990-12-20", "1991-01-02", "1991-01-11", "1991-01-22", "1991-01-31", "1991-02-11", "1991-02-21", "1991-03-04", "1991-03-13", "1991-03-22", "1991-04-03", "1991-04-12", "1991-04-23", "1991-05-02", "1991-05-13", "1991-05-22", "1991-06-03", "1991-06-12", "1991-06-21", "1991-07-02", "1991-07-12", "1991-07-23", "1991-08-01", "1991-08-12", "1991-08-21", "1991-08-30", "1991-09-11", "1991-09-20", "1991-10-01", "1991-10-10", "1991-10-21", "1991-10-30", "1991-11-08", "1991-11-19", "1991-11-29", "1991-12-10", "1991-12-19", "1991-12-31", "1992-01-10", "1992-01-21", "1992-01-30", "1992-02-10", "1992-02-20", "1992-03-02", "1992-03-11", "1992-03-20", "1992-03-31", "1992-04-09", "1992-04-21", "1992-04-30", "1992-05-11", "1992-05-20", "1992-06-01", "1992-06-10", "1992-06-19", "1992-06-30", "1992-07-10", "1992-07-21", "1992-07-30", "1992-08-10", "1992-08-19", "1992-08-28", "1992-09-09", "1992-09-18", "1992-09-29", "1992-10-08", "1992-10-19", "1992-10-28", "1992-11-06", "1992-11-17", "1992-11-27", "1992-12-08", "1992-12-17", "1992-12-29", "1993-01-08", "1993-01-19", "1993-01-28", "1993-02-08", "1993-02-18", "1993-03-01", "1993-03-10", "1993-03-19", "1993-03-30", "1993-04-08", "1993-04-20", "1993-04-29", "1993-05-10", "1993-05-19", "1993-05-28", "1993-06-09", "1993-06-18", "1993-06-29", "1993-07-09", "1993-07-20", "1993-07-29", "1993-08-09", "1993-08-18", 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875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+589.7%", "+63.8%", "+770.9%", "+525.9%"], ["Last 5y", "+30.1%", "+17.8%", "+124.4%", "+12.3%"], ["Last 1y", "+6.4%", "+3.4%", "+21.0%", "+2.9%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-7.1%", "-4.9%", "-24.5%", "-2.2%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-0.2%", "-1.8%", "-9.9%", "+1.5%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-0.5%", "-1.3%", "-8.4%", "+0.9%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-2.3%", "-3.3%", "-18.8%", "+1.0%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-0.6%", "-1.6%", "-8.9%", "+0.9%"], ["2021", "+5.0%", "+5.2%", "+30.6%", "-0.2%"], ["2022", "-4.6%", "-3.2%", "-18.6%", "-1.4%"], ["2023", "+9.0%", "+4.6%", "+26.9%", "+4.4%"], ["2024", "+7.1%", "+4.6%", "+25.7%", "+2.5%"], ["2025", "+6.8%", "+3.7%", "+18.1%", "+3.1%"], ["2026", "+4.0%", "+2.0%", "+12.7%", "+1.9%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = +0.2% (t = +0.5).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `qqq` +0.04, `ivv` +0.03, `xlf` +0.03, `hyg` +0.02, `xly` +0.02, `iwm` -0.02 - net cash +0.80.", "**Decomposition verdict:** partially explainable \u2014 material active/timing residual", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.49 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Market neutral (long US equity, short credit). Full sample (since 1990) is unexplainable \u2014 the strategy has changed over 36 years; the last 5 years show a small net equity/credit tilt (ivv +0.14, vweax +0.06) explaining 74%. The rest is spread/option alpha (full-sample annualized alpha +5.5%, t=6.7).*"], "reference": {"rows": [["IVV +0.21", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["VWEAX +0.06", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["IWM -0.01", "US small cap (Russell 2000)", "small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window"], ["QQQ -0.02", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"]], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.23 \u2192 ~77% net cash", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 0.35 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account (income mostly defers to the LTCG/ROC rate). _~61% of 5y return defers to the investor (price appreciation + return of capital) - taxed as YOUR LTCG on a >1y sale, not ordinary income as in a traditional IRA. market-neutral: gains from short-dated option/systematic trades - often STCG_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +1.98", "n": 8, "rows": [["CVSIX (this fund)", "+30.1%", "+5.5%", "-20.8%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "TAXABLE (defers to LTCG)"], ["BATPX", "+56.0%", "+2.0%", "-24.7%", "0.95", "+0.5% (t=+0.7)", "n/a"], ["RYMHX", "-37.0%", "-10.1%", "-95.1%", "0.67", "+0.9% (t=+0.2)", "n/a"], ["RYJUX", "+96.3%", "-3.4%", "-84.6%", "0.96", "-0.1% (t=-0.1)", "n/a"], ["RYAIX", "-57.2%", "-14.2%", "-98.8%", "0.97", "-0.7% (t=-0.5)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 66pp."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3293, "start": "2013-07-19", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.775640499475655, "alpha_ann": 0.0002839072870470545, "alpha_t": 0.05905454554063001, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.01079493019570945, "t": 2.348575625438109}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.008647819407428613, "t": 3.0052247733383726}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.09894167106778094, "t": 15.445262994446429}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.0628766090742039, "t": 3.08190432711203}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.011311035760707308, "t": -2.8139676857033757}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.014755703450011917, "t": -1.1766713582593888}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.022625481748026675, "t": 2.380525702448549}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.03448897012170008, "t": 5.205357759981418}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.005727673879409679, "t": -0.5789210283345121}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.016450158614295933, "t": -4.2366783734368205}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.006638598286777809, "t": -0.7038590886698285}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.07031454105960287, "t": -4.485958563265841}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.0014014382345660594, "t": 0.5730415532963692}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.0017344735080861685, "t": -0.7792412605302433}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.007630210283797529, "t": -1.513623105021425}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.013231040349193224, "t": -3.0998081549953644}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.0060462508108159955, "t": 0.9702083134063412}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.011051654862929526, "t": 1.9662484282832038}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.012420063111955247, "t": 2.5532044838817405}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.013637507784791815, "t": 3.4971314990126166}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.025505984998730594, "t": 5.428149776507526}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.014383634550849398, "t": 6.229458268211562}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.7717891058904488, "alpha_ann": -0.00878450125219205, "alpha_t": -1.28488376800049, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.009973225032054528, "t": 1.5124644236589857}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": -0.0005808572262356725, "t": -0.13668126445948137}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.11069180531467852, "t": 13.267646597727206}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.01439017295293276, "t": 0.46765150309399184}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.02294477238960877, "t": -4.286913194936513}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.002189937361884147, "t": 0.12261420287803594}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.006866837956104457, "t": -0.5740186740374006}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.06566587536400945, "t": 3.2789101202446407}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.0013919608788054737, "t": -0.10213379083399618}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.010112104024138063, "t": -2.198672085096268}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.049654228067952735, "t": 3.9651386263405306}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.08673839819891767, "t": -4.200171657123436}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.0031515750317927557, "t": 0.9899301223813999}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.0003734222601403515, "t": -0.13412871625451592}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.0026807021754233088, "t": -0.33403479314337975}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.010598332729637788, "t": -1.9101059629171537}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.024929438149091883, "t": 2.4008335824605354}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.01506997202368127, "t": -1.5831570411556861}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.010451460944157744, "t": 1.6234844621233835}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.003920465371477734, "t": 0.6954235389741502}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.029405199371803057, "t": 4.711171867302943}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.004706187572460083, "t": 1.40073507196223}]}, "identified": ["vtv", "vug", "xlf", "vwo", "dflvx", "iwm"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 78% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.78). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 1% of international developed equities (t +2); strong tilt toward US growth equities (\u03b2 +0.10, t +15); clear tilt toward energy (\u03b2 +0.01, t +6); clear tilt toward banks/financials (\u03b2 +0.03, t +5); clear low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.03, t +5); modest tilt away from high dividend (appreciation-tilted) (\u03b2 -0.07, t -4); modest anti-momentum character - it does not chase recent winners (low-turnover/contrarian) (\u03b2 -0.02, t -4); modest tilt toward healthcare (defensive) (\u03b2 +0.01, t +3); modest short-yen position that carries the USD/JPY rate differential (\u03b2 -0.01, t -3); modest tilt toward US value equities (\u03b2 +0.06, t +3); modest an emerging-market tilt (\u03b2 +0.01, t +3); modest tilt away from US small caps (\u03b2 -0.01, t -3); modest tilt toward consumer staples (defensive) (\u03b2 +0.01, t +3); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.02, t +2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest high-dividend tilt - a systematic preference for income-paying names (\u03b2 +0.05, t +4); modest long-AUD position (AUD carry) (\u03b2 +0.02, t +2) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is +0.0%/year (t +0.1) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "jlpsx": {"meta": {"sym": "jlpsx", "name": "JPMorgan US Large Cap Core Plus I", "group": "shortlist", "order": 15, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund seeks to provide high total return from a portfolio of selected equity securities."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+123.5%", "cagr": "+12.6%", "mdd": "-51.3%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["JLPSX is the JPMorgan US Large Cap Core Plus I. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks to provide high total return from a portfolio of selected equity securities. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'no dominant driver (balanced/idio)' cluster.", "Since 2005 it has compounded at +12.6% per year (a +1074% total return) with +22% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 51%. Over the last five years it returned +123.5% versus +127.4% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +14.5%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The fit is strong: 95% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures - exposure to core us equity market, exposure to growth/tech-heavy us equities, exposure to the tech sector index. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of -0.2% per year (t = -0.2) - is statistically indistinguishable from zero, i.e. the strategy is not clearly adding anything on top of the mix it owns. The curated decomposition's read: partially explainable \u2014 material active/timing residual. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.04 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 5% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE)."], "chart": {"dates": ["2005-11-01", "2005-11-07", "2005-11-11", "2005-11-17", "2005-11-23", "2005-11-30", "2005-12-06", "2005-12-12", "2005-12-16", "2005-12-22", "2005-12-29", "2006-01-05", "2006-01-11", "2006-01-18", "2006-01-24", "2006-01-30", "2006-02-03", "2006-02-09", "2006-02-15", "2006-02-22", "2006-02-28", "2006-03-06", "2006-03-10", "2006-03-16", "2006-03-22", "2006-03-28", "2006-04-03", "2006-04-07", "2006-04-13", "2006-04-20", "2006-04-26", "2006-05-02", "2006-05-08", "2006-05-12", "2006-05-18", "2006-05-24", "2006-05-31", "2006-06-06", "2006-06-12", "2006-06-16", "2006-06-22", "2006-06-28", "2006-07-05", "2006-07-11", "2006-07-17", "2006-07-21", "2006-07-27", "2006-08-02", "2006-08-08", "2006-08-14", "2006-08-18", "2006-08-24", "2006-08-30", "2006-09-06", "2006-09-12", "2006-09-18", "2006-09-22", "2006-09-28", "2006-10-04", "2006-10-10", "2006-10-16", "2006-10-20", "2006-10-26", "2006-11-01", "2006-11-07", "2006-11-13", "2006-11-17", "2006-11-24", "2006-11-30", "2006-12-06", "2006-12-12", "2006-12-18", "2006-12-22", "2006-12-29", "2007-01-08", "2007-01-12", "2007-01-19", "2007-01-25", "2007-01-31", "2007-02-06", "2007-02-12", "2007-02-16", "2007-02-23", "2007-03-01", "2007-03-07", "2007-03-13", "2007-03-19", "2007-03-23", "2007-03-29", "2007-04-04", "2007-04-11", "2007-04-17", "2007-04-23", "2007-04-27", "2007-05-03", "2007-05-09", "2007-05-15", "2007-05-21", "2007-05-25", "2007-06-01", "2007-06-07", "2007-06-13", "2007-06-19", "2007-06-25", "2007-06-29", "2007-07-06", "2007-07-12", "2007-07-18", "2007-07-24", "2007-07-30", "2007-08-03", "2007-08-09", "2007-08-15", "2007-08-21", "2007-08-27", "2007-08-31", "2007-09-07", "2007-09-13", "2007-09-19", "2007-09-25", "2007-10-01", "2007-10-05", "2007-10-11", "2007-10-17", "2007-10-23", "2007-10-29", "2007-11-02", "2007-11-08", "2007-11-14", "2007-11-20", "2007-11-27", "2007-12-03", "2007-12-07", "2007-12-13", "2007-12-19", "2007-12-26", "2008-01-02", "2008-01-08", "2008-01-14", "2008-01-18", "2008-01-25", "2008-01-31", "2008-02-06", "2008-02-12", "2008-02-19", "2008-02-25", "2008-02-29", "2008-03-06", "2008-03-12", "2008-03-18", "2008-03-25", "2008-03-31", "2008-04-04", "2008-04-10", "2008-04-16", "2008-04-22", "2008-04-28", "2008-05-02", "2008-05-08", "2008-05-14", "2008-05-20", "2008-05-27", "2008-06-02", "2008-06-06", "2008-06-12", "2008-06-18", "2008-06-24", "2008-06-30", "2008-07-07", "2008-07-11", "2008-07-17", "2008-07-23", "2008-07-29", "2008-08-04", "2008-08-08", "2008-08-14", "2008-08-20", "2008-08-26", "2008-09-02", "2008-09-08", 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817.4232344841527, 836.5714255698672, 838.2424227975112, 845.7955555452916, 860.337383235379, 838.4794183902876, 856.229333214513, 834.4826119610877, 847.784251393242, 847.9766813996756, 858.5387683809412, 850.0936175043507, 829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+1074.1%", "+879.7%", "+832.1%", "+194.4%"], ["Last 5y", "+123.5%", "+127.4%", "+123.7%", "-3.9%"], ["Last 1y", "+14.5%", "+21.0%", "+20.7%", "-6.5%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-25.1%", "-24.5%", "-24.5%", "-0.6%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-7.9%", "-9.6%", "-9.9%", "+1.7%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-8.1%", "-8.9%", "-8.4%", "+0.8%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-19.1%", "-19.1%", "-18.8%", "+0.1%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-10.8%", "-9.3%", "-8.9%", "-1.5%"], ["2021", "+31.1%", "+29.4%", "+30.6%", "+1.7%"], ["2022", "-18.6%", "-18.9%", "-18.6%", "+0.3%"], ["2023", "+31.1%", "+28.7%", "+26.9%", "+2.3%"], ["2024", "+29.9%", "+26.7%", "+25.7%", "+3.2%"], ["2025", "+14.6%", "+18.8%", "+18.1%", "-4.2%"], ["2026", "+8.1%", "+12.3%", "+12.4%", "-4.2%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = +1.4% (t = +0.3).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `ivv` +0.19, `qqq` +0.19, `xlk` +0.17, `xlf` +0.10, `xlv` +0.08, `xly` +0.06 - net cash +0.07.", "**Decomposition verdict:** partially explainable \u2014 material active/timing residual", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.04 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*US large-cap core plus: essentially 1.04x the S&P 500 (R\u00b2 0.96 over 5y, stable). The 'plus' is small optionality (tiny ijt/vwo tilts in the 5y fit). The cleanest fund on the list.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["IVV +1.00", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["VNQ -0.05", "US REITs", "physical real estate: rents vs rates, leverage in the property sector; equity-like income"], ["QQQ +0.05", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"]], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.99 \u2192 fully invested", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 0.91 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account. _unclassified: Other 99%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves_", "peers": {"cluster": "no dominant driver (balanced/idio)", "n": 337, "rows": [["JLPSX (this fund)", "+123.5%", "+12.6%", "-51.3%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "TAXABLE"], ["SEHAX", "+139.4%", "+15.1%", "-34.9%", "0.97", "+2.7% (t=+2.2)", "n/a"], ["CAIBX", "+73.4%", "+9.0%", "-43.2%", "0.92", "+1.9% (t=+1.6)", "n/a"], ["QAACX", "+147.4%", "+11.3%", "-63.0%", "0.96", "+2.4% (t=+1.6)", "n/a"], ["DESSX", "+139.3%", "+10.5%", "-58.2%", "0.98", "+1.5% (t=+1.4)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 24pp; meaningfully more volatile than the calmest peer."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3293, "start": "2013-07-19", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.7370036152171693, "alpha_ann": -0.006252360097712586, "alpha_t": -0.20982968863187043, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.023067270295419773, "t": 0.8097054769234255}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.016308079055420675, "t": 0.9143644194649713}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.5212963480687889, "t": 13.129461392696989}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.8700640740194197, "t": 6.880617857779585}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.020698515600030918, "t": -0.8308107223732587}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.2712310515902039, "t": -3.489641660021265}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.009643720753792256, "t": 0.1637064638262023}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.07852994444580062, "t": 1.9122814365366494}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.1585549048990162, "t": 2.585633020945928}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.02037190657242192, "t": 0.846512242234425}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.09257058837331844, "t": -1.5835381067574072}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.3134986165505158, "t": -3.2269475107586025}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.0074626539685342524, "t": 0.492324693715429}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.00936116430186745, "t": 0.6785475683383358}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.04674685975209097, "t": -1.4961662197934456}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.03080680866327787, "t": -1.1644844546264663}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.0008339320398460734, "t": -0.0215901497309926}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.006604969605784994, "t": -0.1895955150153934}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.01972652777008125, "t": -0.6542724076436649}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.029729234012380895, "t": 1.230004874027492}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.007827809730668087, "t": -0.2687795018621388}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.029701230232207006, "t": 2.0754020442771335}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.9636155496749842, "alpha_ann": -0.0036708317945577705, "alpha_t": -0.25814899814960235, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.014357874488652694, "t": 1.04688488087659}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.00713589711130297, "t": 0.8073231321731583}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.4716648567628867, "t": 27.181359132885017}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.26399693327369883, "t": 4.124909536542554}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.048460803177168714, "t": -4.3532215375541545}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.12637055580138526, "t": -3.401842537426301}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.04246561784779854, "t": -1.706734215295971}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.17496173694932216, "t": 4.200413845814598}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.17117457036258998, "t": 6.038664399540097}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.059814125701815615, "t": 6.252906269465156}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.12376374559172153, "t": -4.75176342966872}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.009097840726963392, "t": -0.21181328581805595}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": -0.005601827701613062, "t": -0.8459912299599458}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.00465508177135706, "t": 0.8039112470832736}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.013390479988232538, "t": -0.8022292802323897}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.01705866275977401, "t": -1.47816910085554}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.025354814972462857, "t": 1.174003084511352}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.005430142316935057, "t": 0.274272325249751}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.008032704575431, "t": 0.5999183623499063}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.053231040271360455, "t": 4.539791880115486}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.041702235444552115, "t": 3.2123538734357657}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.022610042908208755, "t": 3.2355445375242344}]}, "identified": ["vug", "vtv", "xlu", "iwm", "dflvx"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 74% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.74). The statistically identified tilt stack: strong tilt toward US growth equities (\u03b2 +0.52, t +13); clear tilt toward US value equities (\u03b2 +0.87, t +7); modest cap-weight concentration (tilt away from equal-weight/small) (\u03b2 -0.27, t -3); modest tilt away from high dividend (appreciation-tilted) (\u03b2 -0.31, t -3); modest quality tilt (high-ROE, low-debt, stable earnings) (\u03b2 +0.16, t +3); modest tilt toward energy (\u03b2 +0.03, t +2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt away from US small caps (\u03b2 -0.05, t -4); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.17, t +4); clear momentum tilt (preference for recent winners) (\u03b2 +0.06, t +6); modest underweight to high-dividend names (\u03b2 -0.12, t -5); modest tilt toward healthcare (defensive) (\u03b2 +0.05, t +5); modest tilt toward banks/financials (\u03b2 +0.04, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is -0.6%/year (t -0.2) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "pmaix": {"meta": {"sym": "pmaix", "name": "Victory Pioneer Multi-Asset Income A", "group": "shortlist", "order": 16, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund seeks a high level of current income."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+78.6%", "cagr": "+8.6%", "mdd": "-24.1%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["PMAIX is the Victory Pioneer Multi-Asset Income A. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks a high level of current income. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09' cluster.", "Since 2011 it has compounded at +8.6% per year (a +236% total return) with +7% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 24%. Over the last five years it returned +78.6% versus +36.1% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +15.7%. It was positive in 7 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The fit is strong: 71% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures - a small tilt to high-yield corporate bonds, a small tilt to international developed markets. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of +3.6% per year (t = 2.4) - is small relative to the beta, but it is what separates this fund from the equivalent index mix. The curated decomposition's read: partially explainable \u2014 material active/timing residual. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.45 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.", "To be explicit about the limits: 29% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. Global multi-asset fund of funds (N-PORT: 99.5% in unaffiliated underlying funds/loans) - the holdings check is the ground truth here, and the return model is only a description of it.", "Account placement: not settled by the model - the sleeve model calls it MIXED, so the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter before choosing taxable vs IRA."], "chart": {"dates": ["2011-12-22", "2011-12-28", "2012-01-03", "2012-01-06", "2012-01-11", "2012-01-17", "2012-01-20", "2012-01-25", "2012-01-30", "2012-02-02", "2012-02-07", "2012-02-10", "2012-02-15", "2012-02-21", "2012-02-24", "2012-02-29", "2012-03-05", "2012-03-08", "2012-03-13", "2012-03-16", "2012-03-21", "2012-03-26", "2012-03-29", "2012-04-03", "2012-04-09", "2012-04-12", "2012-04-17", "2012-04-20", "2012-04-25", "2012-04-30", "2012-05-03", "2012-05-08", "2012-05-11", "2012-05-16", "2012-05-21", "2012-05-24", "2012-05-30", "2012-06-04", "2012-06-07", "2012-06-12", "2012-06-15", "2012-06-20", "2012-06-25", "2012-06-28", "2012-07-03", "2012-07-09", "2012-07-12", "2012-07-17", "2012-07-20", "2012-07-25", "2012-07-30", "2012-08-02", "2012-08-07", "2012-08-10", "2012-08-15", "2012-08-20", "2012-08-23", "2012-08-28", "2012-08-31", "2012-09-06", "2012-09-11", "2012-09-14", "2012-09-19", "2012-09-24", "2012-09-27", "2012-10-02", "2012-10-05", "2012-10-10", "2012-10-15", "2012-10-18", "2012-10-23", "2012-10-26", "2012-11-02", "2012-11-07", "2012-11-12", "2012-11-15", "2012-11-20", "2012-11-26", "2012-11-29", "2012-12-04", "2012-12-07", "2012-12-12", "2012-12-17", "2012-12-20", "2012-12-26", "2012-12-31", "2013-01-04", "2013-01-09", "2013-01-14", "2013-01-17", "2013-01-23", "2013-01-28", "2013-01-31", "2013-02-05", "2013-02-08", "2013-02-13", "2013-02-19", "2013-02-22", "2013-02-27", "2013-03-04", "2013-03-07", "2013-03-12", "2013-03-15", "2013-03-20", "2013-03-25", "2013-03-28", "2013-04-03", "2013-04-08", "2013-04-11", "2013-04-16", "2013-04-19", "2013-04-24", "2013-04-29", "2013-05-02", "2013-05-07", "2013-05-10", 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875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+236.2%", "+84.1%", "+688.7%", "+152.1%"], ["Last 5y", "+78.6%", "+36.1%", "+124.4%", "+42.5%"], ["Last 1y", "+15.7%", "+9.8%", "+21.0%", "+5.9%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-7.9%", "-9.9%", "-24.5%", "+2.0%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-2.6%", "-5.0%", "-9.9%", "+2.4%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-1.0%", "-1.3%", "-8.4%", "+0.2%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-5.2%", "-4.0%", "-18.8%", "-1.2%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-1.5%", "-1.5%", "-8.9%", "-0.1%"], ["2021", "+11.9%", "+7.5%", "+30.6%", "+4.5%"], ["2022", "-0.0%", "-2.4%", "-18.6%", "+2.4%"], ["2023", "+8.8%", "+2.2%", "+26.9%", "+6.6%"], ["2024", "+7.8%", "+6.2%", "+25.7%", "+1.5%"], ["2025", "+22.6%", "+12.6%", "+18.1%", "+10.0%"], ["2026", "+9.7%", "+5.4%", "+12.7%", "+4.3%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = +4.1% (t = +2.8).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.13, `efa` +0.10, `vblix` +0.08, `xlf` +0.08, `xle` +0.07, `vwo` +0.06 - net cash +0.37.", "**Decomposition verdict:** partially explainable \u2014 material active/timing residual", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.45 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Global multi-asset fund of funds (N-PORT: 99.5% in unaffiliated underlying funds/loans). Returns decompose into high-yield credit (vweax +0.62), intl equity (efa +0.23), commodities (+0.05), bonds (\u22120.15): R\u00b2 0.68, stable weights, alpha +3.5%/yr (t=3.3). The sleeves show through the underlying funds.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["VEA +0.16", "Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard)", "developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter"], ["VWEAX +0.47", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["QQQ -0.36", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["IVV +0.43", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["DJP +0.05", "Natural gas", "a single volatile commodity: winter/hedging cycles"], ["VWO +0.07", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"]], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.83 \u2192 ~17% net cash", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 0.44 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Model says MIXED - the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter. _unclassified: Other 59%, Fund holdings 21%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves; multi-asset: mixed qualified/LTCG + ordinary interest - check 1099_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.66 + HY corporate +0.09", "n": 164, "rows": [["PMAIX (this fund)", "+78.6%", "+8.6%", "-24.1%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "MIXED (check 1099)"], ["PYFIX", "+41.5%", "+4.7%", "-20.2%", "0.34", "+2.4% (t=+3.8)", "n/a"], ["ICMUX", "+45.6%", "+4.9%", "-8.8%", "0.36", "+3.0% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["DFLAX", "+37.6%", "+4.1%", "-19.0%", "0.31", "+2.1% (t=+3.4)", "n/a"], ["LVHI", "+151.3%", "+11.3%", "-32.3%", "0.78", "+6.2% (t=+2.9)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 73pp."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3293, "start": "2013-07-19", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.643025296727592, "alpha_ann": 0.0436061176241614, "alpha_t": 3.5964925428086567, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.20011534400609174, "t": 17.26315026886388}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.03045456172732263, "t": 4.196407482539238}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.07622978021534078, "t": -4.718410095373438}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.2433590355646631, "t": -4.729687709163731}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.008695421165947478, "t": -0.8577531126560125}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.10635098210610597, "t": 3.362727835049201}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.012978733632621324, "t": -0.5414549262457882}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.10673826609983407, "t": 6.387713828816274}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.03702775633506882, "t": -1.4839640840070987}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.020025981912202645, "t": -2.045051154484969}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.007045584015138051, "t": 0.29619742699279444}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.15065864379576419, "t": 3.811176966580093}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.016634043988065575, "t": 2.696900658275818}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.004166170805003676, "t": 0.7421578589760751}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.0426506408516761, "t": 3.3547622915679463}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.00916996636937252, "t": 0.851850761042676}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.041746440215996126, "t": 2.656153880400423}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.034109172436016216, "t": -2.4062303905111984}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.03868166040812294, "t": -3.152984631263353}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.04116345662549832, "t": 4.185465228929054}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.06398883802703575, "t": 5.39969086084003}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.03713704180524313, "t": 6.377403521702903}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.6814066684155888, "alpha_ann": 0.033778763746510454, "alpha_t": 1.9456782059657416, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.15374136837800206, "t": 9.181651855321375}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.06071255998727815, "t": 5.62598625149756}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.017135358176329427, "t": -0.8088204827519498}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.08263501854339884, "t": -1.0575501701802728}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.04262399659005842, "t": -3.136141387410373}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.1497282555266437, "t": 3.3013637664969733}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.06105786941293898, "t": -2.009978433244378}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.0884133647399075, "t": 1.7385541524774955}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.10654028020388878, "t": -3.078483189646211}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.03498279396858417, "t": -2.9953940027995216}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.040359603524347316, "t": 1.269198533711274}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.0577846866542426, "t": 1.1019171300170592}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.0160246335850978, "t": 1.9821911186000445}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.019795361605201692, "t": 2.8000483716538933}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.04938833082955046, "t": 2.423527861893123}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.010418882052863301, "t": 0.7394717065555423}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.07334965266476043, "t": 2.7818144454660048}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.05759381110129724, "t": -2.382691952871533}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.023926844419129338, "t": -1.4636495038039534}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.01665357347906585, "t": 1.1633214390569586}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.08401261543743746, "t": 5.300658855887627}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.050554890886443354, "t": 5.925574697190781}]}, "identified": ["efa", "xle", "dflvx", "vug", "tlt", "xlf"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 64% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.64). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 20% of international developed equities (t +17); clear low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.11, t +6); clear tilt toward energy (\u03b2 +0.04, t +6); clear tilt toward banks/financials (\u03b2 +0.06, t +5); modest tilt away from US value equities (\u03b2 -0.24, t -5); modest tilt away from US growth equities (\u03b2 -0.08, t -5); modest an emerging-market tilt (\u03b2 +0.03, t +4); modest tilt toward healthcare (defensive) (\u03b2 +0.04, t +4); modest dividend-appreciation tilt (growing payers) (\u03b2 +0.15, t +4); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (\u03b2 +0.11, t +3); modest long-euro position (exposed to EUR moves) (\u03b2 +0.04, t +3); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (\u03b2 -0.04, t -3); modest tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 +0.02, t +3); modest long-AUD position (AUD carry) (\u03b2 +0.04, t +3); modest tilt away from utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (\u03b2 -0.03, t -2); modest anti-momentum character - it does not chase recent winners (low-turnover/contrarian) (\u03b2 -0.02, t -2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt away from US small caps (\u03b2 -0.04, t -3); modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.06, t -2); modest anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (\u03b2 -0.11, t -3); modest tilt toward gold (\u03b2 +0.02, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +4.4%/year (t +3.6) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "pmorx": {"meta": {"sym": "pmorx", "name": "Putnam Mortgage Opportunities A", "group": "shortlist", "order": 17, "verdict": "", "objective": "The fund seeks to maximize total return consistent with what the Investment Manager (as defined below) believes to be prudent risk."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+37.3%", "cagr": "+4.3%", "mdd": "-19.3%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["PMORX is the Putnam Mortgage Opportunities A. Stated strategy: The fund seeks to maximize total return consistent with what the Investment Manager (as defined below) believes to be prudent risk. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +1.98' cluster.", "Since 2019 it has compounded at +4.3% per year (a +35% total return) with +6% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 19%. Over the last five years it returned +37.3% versus +19.2% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +6.2%. It was positive in 4 of the last 7 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.08). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.1% per year over the last five years (t = 1.7) - at that t-stat it is not yet clearly different from a lucky streak. Over the full history the same estimate is +2.0% per year (t = 1.0). The stated strategy ('The fund seeks to maximize total return consistent with what the Investment Manager (as defined below)...') is a plausible mechanism as well, but that is a hypothesis - the returns only tell us the outperformance exists, not why. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.74 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 92% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA)."], "chart": {"dates": ["2019-06-28", "2019-07-02", "2019-07-05", "2019-07-09", "2019-07-11", "2019-07-15", "2019-07-17", "2019-07-19", "2019-07-23", "2019-07-25", "2019-07-29", "2019-07-31", "2019-08-02", "2019-08-06", "2019-08-08", "2019-08-12", "2019-08-14", "2019-08-16", "2019-08-20", "2019-08-22", "2019-08-26", "2019-08-28", "2019-08-30", "2019-09-04", "2019-09-06", "2019-09-10", "2019-09-12", "2019-09-16", "2019-09-18", "2019-09-20", "2019-09-24", "2019-09-26", "2019-09-30", "2019-10-02", "2019-10-04", "2019-10-08", "2019-10-10", "2019-10-14", "2019-10-16", "2019-10-18", "2019-10-22", "2019-10-24", "2019-10-28", "2019-10-30", "2019-11-01", "2019-11-05", "2019-11-07", "2019-11-11", "2019-11-13", "2019-11-15", "2019-11-19", "2019-11-21", "2019-11-25", "2019-11-27", "2019-12-02", "2019-12-04", "2019-12-06", "2019-12-10", "2019-12-12", "2019-12-16", "2019-12-18", "2019-12-20", "2019-12-24", "2019-12-27", "2019-12-31", "2020-01-03", "2020-01-07", "2020-01-09", "2020-01-13", "2020-01-15", "2020-01-17", "2020-01-22", "2020-01-24", "2020-01-28", "2020-01-30", "2020-02-03", "2020-02-05", "2020-02-07", "2020-02-11", "2020-02-13", "2020-02-18", "2020-02-20", "2020-02-24", "2020-02-26", "2020-02-28", "2020-03-03", "2020-03-05", "2020-03-09", "2020-03-11", "2020-03-13", "2020-03-17", "2020-03-19", "2020-03-23", "2020-03-25", "2020-03-27", "2020-03-31", "2020-04-02", "2020-04-06", "2020-04-08", "2020-04-13", "2020-04-15", "2020-04-17", "2020-04-21", "2020-04-23", "2020-04-27", "2020-04-29", "2020-05-01", "2020-05-05", "2020-05-07", "2020-05-11", "2020-05-13", "2020-05-15", "2020-05-19", "2020-05-21", "2020-05-26", "2020-05-28", "2020-06-01", "2020-06-03", "2020-06-05", "2020-06-09", "2020-06-11", "2020-06-15", "2020-06-17", "2020-06-19", "2020-06-23", "2020-06-25", "2020-06-29", "2020-07-01", "2020-07-06", "2020-07-08", "2020-07-10", "2020-07-14", "2020-07-16", "2020-07-20", "2020-07-22", "2020-07-24", "2020-07-28", "2020-07-30", "2020-08-03", "2020-08-05", "2020-08-07", "2020-08-11", "2020-08-13", "2020-08-17", "2020-08-19", "2020-08-21", "2020-08-25", "2020-08-27", "2020-08-31", "2020-09-02", "2020-09-04", "2020-09-09", "2020-09-11", "2020-09-15", "2020-09-17", "2020-09-21", "2020-09-23", "2020-09-25", "2020-09-29", "2020-10-01", "2020-10-05", "2020-10-07", "2020-10-09", "2020-10-13", "2020-10-15", "2020-10-19", "2020-10-21", "2020-10-23", "2020-10-27", "2020-10-29", "2020-11-02", "2020-11-04", "2020-11-06", "2020-11-10", "2020-11-12", "2020-11-16", "2020-11-18", "2020-11-20", "2020-11-24", "2020-11-27", 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"+4.4%"], ["2023", "+6.5%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+1.5%"], ["2024", "+10.0%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+4.8%"], ["2025", "+5.5%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+1.3%"], ["2026", "+5.3%", "+2.3%", "+12.4%", "+3.1%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = +2.0% (t = +1.0).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vmbix` +0.02, `ief` -0.02, `xlf` +0.02, `dbmf` +0.02, `vwo` +0.01, `gld` -0.01 - net cash +0.95.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.74 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Long/short mortgage & ABS \u2014 returns mostly idiosyncratic (R\u00b2 0.10). 5y direction is long MBS (vmbix +0.31) / short intermediate rates (ief \u22120.39), consistent with a carry/relative-value mortgage strategy. Not a static sleeve.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["EFA +0.04", "Intl developed ex-US (MSCI EAFE)", "developed-market equities outside the US; same exposure as VEA via a different index provider"], ["FXE -0.05", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to -0.00 \u2192 ~100% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.25 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**.", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +1.98", "n": 8, "rows": [["PMORX (this fund)", "+37.3%", "+4.3%", "-19.3%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "IRA"], ["BATPX", "+56.0%", "+2.0%", "-24.7%", "0.95", "+0.5% (t=+0.7)", "n/a"], ["RYMHX", "-37.0%", "-10.1%", "-95.1%", "0.67", "+0.9% (t=+0.2)", "n/a"], ["RYJUX", "+96.3%", "-3.4%", "-84.6%", "0.96", "-0.1% (t=-0.1)", "n/a"], ["RYAIX", "-57.2%", "-14.2%", "-98.8%", "0.97", "-0.7% (t=-0.5)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 59pp; deeper drawdown than the calmest peer (-19.3% vs -24.7%)."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 1796, "start": "2019-07-01", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.08494901328409576, "alpha_ann": 0.020014210028559087, "alpha_t": 0.9596859945577432, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": -0.02091987814880357, "t": -1.092969055538687}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.012509537153828937, "t": 0.9976269891785424}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.02210173785520846, "t": -0.8929663667524436}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.033403336955443404, "t": -0.40328252874895143}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.014404144665265893, "t": -0.908390369064059}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.051978115941005015, "t": 1.0515292971422783}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.06842984531561119, "t": 1.9553573643692628}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.015988420507560577, "t": 0.7075217005020327}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.027508578474252404, "t": -0.6836329704733798}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.0033139572354106543, "t": 0.232928597632051}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.03017829485897409, "t": -0.8110435699415762}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.03843849928105091, "t": 0.6249300909869177}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.022989536046769996, "t": 2.502999775578731}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.019533519900342102, "t": -2.2585355870088017}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.03087129259911922, "t": 1.2806023808703204}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.030450377732654674, "t": 1.7098418170331782}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.06803156825970857, "t": -2.480877814326136}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.08375205873855784, "t": 3.379480820378204}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.00329429349700972, "t": -0.1729143804520903}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.02975953856127142, "t": -1.7509014067823996}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.03311722056588139, "t": 1.809844545961319}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.014784696587610155, "t": 1.6205057975199375}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.07420685595062393, "alpha_ann": 0.02039879393266348, "alpha_t": 1.6281383614611065, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.020108147440227712, "t": 1.6640320823670123}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.018574686284085, "t": 2.3850701849000817}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.0006046125054081354, "t": -0.039545369214536184}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.07290841583999523, "t": 1.2929271866038077}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.0060760192152193365, "t": 0.6194698289632675}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.007542841740694268, "t": 0.2304539553710144}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.050545207905382514, "t": -2.305628299474954}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.03688311327188017, "t": -1.0049800282354697}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.009536160639179322, "t": 0.38181770688989}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.00428715210372613, "t": -0.5086603792643107}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.031497853706733796, "t": 1.3725342387128934}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.09080301940200393, "t": -2.399363328797578}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.009556995249821012, "t": 1.638092203172541}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.011138661901294799, "t": -2.183205773810955}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.035046039328035274, "t": -2.38298971143515}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.006592112768677564, "t": -0.6483128403667869}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.007340161882880722, "t": -0.38574054476695835}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.007329267264675147, "t": 0.4201575714295695}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.023067003403058284, "t": 1.955250469665928}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.0016803889165970644, "t": -0.16265284261220708}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.03659542159941219, "t": 3.199422974950242}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.010743014016290707, "t": 1.7448295074269242}]}, "identified": ["vym", "xlu"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2019-to-2026 the fit explains 8% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.08). The statistically identified tilt stack: modest tilt toward utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (\u03b2 +0.08, t +3); modest tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 +0.02, t +3); modest short-AUD position (USD carry) (\u03b2 -0.07, t -2); modest tilt away from gold (\u03b2 -0.02, t -2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest an emerging-market tilt (\u03b2 +0.02, t +2); modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.05, t -2); modest tilt away from high dividend (appreciation-tilted) (\u03b2 -0.09, t -2); modest short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (\u03b2 -0.04, t -2); modest tilt toward banks/financials (\u03b2 +0.04, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is +2.0%/year (t +1.0) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "qspnx": {"meta": {"sym": "qspnx", "name": "AQR Style Premia Alternative N", "group": "shortlist", "order": 18, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund seeks long-term absolute (positive) returns."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+197.1%", "cagr": "+7.7%", "mdd": "-41.8%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["QSPNX is the AQR Style Premia Alternative N. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks long-term absolute (positive) returns. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +1.98' cluster.", "Since 2013 it has compounded at +7.7% per year (a +160% total return) with +11% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 42%. Over the last five years it returned +197.1% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +22.0%. It was positive in 5 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.32). The loadings that do show up - exposure to cheap/asset-rich us names (financials, energy, cyclicals), short-like exposure to growth/tech-heavy us equities (it rises when that asset falls), a small tilt to international developed markets - are minor tilts, not the story. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +10.5% per year over the last five years (t = 2.2) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +7.6% per year (t = 1.8). The stated strategy ('The Fund seeks long-term absolute (positive) returns') is a plausible mechanism as well, but that is a hypothesis - the returns only tell us the outperformance exists, not why. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 1.00 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.", "To be explicit about the limits: 68% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up.", "Account placement: not settled by the model - the sleeve model calls it MIXED, so the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter before choosing taxable vs IRA."], "chart": {"dates": ["2013-10-30", "2013-11-04", "2013-11-07", "2013-11-12", "2013-11-15", "2013-11-20", "2013-11-25", "2013-11-29", "2013-12-04", "2013-12-09", "2013-12-12", "2013-12-17", "2013-12-20", "2013-12-26", "2013-12-31", "2014-01-06", "2014-01-09", "2014-01-14", "2014-01-17", "2014-01-23", "2014-01-28", "2014-01-31", "2014-02-05", "2014-02-10", "2014-02-13", "2014-02-19", "2014-02-24", "2014-02-27", "2014-03-04", "2014-03-07", "2014-03-12", "2014-03-17", "2014-03-20", "2014-03-25", "2014-03-28", "2014-04-02", "2014-04-07", "2014-04-10", "2014-04-15", "2014-04-21", "2014-04-24", "2014-04-29", "2014-05-02", "2014-05-07", "2014-05-12", "2014-05-15", "2014-05-20", "2014-05-23", "2014-05-29", "2014-06-03", "2014-06-06", "2014-06-11", "2014-06-16", "2014-06-19", "2014-06-24", "2014-06-27", "2014-07-02", "2014-07-08", "2014-07-11", "2014-07-16", "2014-07-21", "2014-07-24", "2014-07-29", "2014-08-01", "2014-08-06", "2014-08-11", "2014-08-14", "2014-08-19", "2014-08-22", "2014-08-27", "2014-09-02", "2014-09-05", "2014-09-10", "2014-09-15", "2014-09-18", "2014-09-23", "2014-09-26", "2014-10-01", "2014-10-06", "2014-10-09", "2014-10-14", "2014-10-17", "2014-10-22", "2014-10-27", "2014-10-30", "2014-11-04", "2014-11-07", "2014-11-12", "2014-11-17", "2014-11-20", "2014-11-25", "2014-12-01", "2014-12-04", "2014-12-09", "2014-12-12", "2014-12-17", "2014-12-22", "2014-12-26", "2014-12-31", "2015-01-06", "2015-01-09", "2015-01-14", "2015-01-20", "2015-01-23", "2015-01-28", "2015-02-02", "2015-02-05", "2015-02-10", "2015-02-13", "2015-02-19", "2015-02-24", "2015-02-27", "2015-03-04", "2015-03-09", "2015-03-12", "2015-03-17", "2015-03-20", "2015-03-25", "2015-03-30", "2015-04-02", "2015-04-08", "2015-04-13", "2015-04-16", "2015-04-21", "2015-04-24", "2015-04-29", "2015-05-04", "2015-05-07", "2015-05-12", "2015-05-15", "2015-05-20", "2015-05-26", "2015-05-29", "2015-06-03", "2015-06-08", "2015-06-11", "2015-06-16", "2015-06-19", "2015-06-24", "2015-06-29", "2015-07-02", "2015-07-08", "2015-07-13", "2015-07-16", "2015-07-21", "2015-07-24", "2015-07-29", "2015-08-03", "2015-08-06", "2015-08-11", "2015-08-14", "2015-08-19", "2015-08-24", "2015-08-27", "2015-09-01", "2015-09-04", "2015-09-10", "2015-09-15", "2015-09-18", "2015-09-23", "2015-09-28", "2015-10-01", "2015-10-06", "2015-10-09", "2015-10-14", "2015-10-19", "2015-10-22", "2015-10-27", "2015-10-30", "2015-11-04", "2015-11-09", "2015-11-12", "2015-11-17", "2015-11-20", "2015-11-25", "2015-12-01", "2015-12-04", "2015-12-09", "2015-12-14", "2015-12-17", "2015-12-22", "2015-12-28", "2015-12-31", "2016-01-06", "2016-01-11", "2016-01-14", "2016-01-20", "2016-01-25", "2016-01-28", "2016-02-02", "2016-02-05", "2016-02-10", "2016-02-16", "2016-02-19", "2016-02-24", "2016-02-29", "2016-03-03", "2016-03-08", "2016-03-11", "2016-03-16", "2016-03-21", "2016-03-24", "2016-03-30", "2016-04-04", "2016-04-07", "2016-04-12", "2016-04-15", "2016-04-20", "2016-04-25", "2016-04-28", "2016-05-03", "2016-05-06", "2016-05-11", "2016-05-16", "2016-05-19", "2016-05-24", "2016-05-27", "2016-06-02", "2016-06-07", "2016-06-10", "2016-06-15", "2016-06-20", "2016-06-23", "2016-06-28", "2016-07-01", "2016-07-07", "2016-07-12", "2016-07-15", "2016-07-20", "2016-07-25", "2016-07-28", "2016-08-02", "2016-08-05", "2016-08-10", "2016-08-15", "2016-08-18", "2016-08-23", "2016-08-26", "2016-08-31", "2016-09-06", "2016-09-09", "2016-09-14", "2016-09-19", "2016-09-22", "2016-09-27", "2016-09-30", "2016-10-05", "2016-10-10", "2016-10-13", "2016-10-18", "2016-10-21", "2016-10-26", "2016-10-31", "2016-11-03", "2016-11-08", "2016-11-11", "2016-11-16", "2016-11-21", "2016-11-25", "2016-11-30", "2016-12-05", "2016-12-08", "2016-12-13", "2016-12-16", "2016-12-21", "2016-12-27", "2016-12-30", "2017-01-05", "2017-01-10", "2017-01-13", "2017-01-19", "2017-01-24", "2017-01-27", "2017-02-01", "2017-02-06", "2017-02-09", "2017-02-14", "2017-02-17", "2017-02-23", "2017-02-28", "2017-03-03", "2017-03-08", "2017-03-13", "2017-03-16", "2017-03-21", "2017-03-24", "2017-03-29", "2017-04-03", "2017-04-06", "2017-04-11", "2017-04-17", "2017-04-20", "2017-04-25", "2017-04-28", "2017-05-03", "2017-05-08", "2017-05-11", "2017-05-16", "2017-05-19", "2017-05-24", "2017-05-30", "2017-06-02", "2017-06-07", "2017-06-12", "2017-06-15", "2017-06-20", "2017-06-23", "2017-06-28", "2017-07-03", "2017-07-07", "2017-07-12", "2017-07-17", "2017-07-20", "2017-07-25", "2017-07-28", "2017-08-02", "2017-08-07", "2017-08-10", "2017-08-15", "2017-08-18", "2017-08-23", "2017-08-28", "2017-08-31", "2017-09-06", "2017-09-11", "2017-09-14", "2017-09-19", "2017-09-22", "2017-09-27", "2017-10-02", "2017-10-05", "2017-10-10", "2017-10-13", "2017-10-18", "2017-10-23", "2017-10-26", "2017-10-31", "2017-11-03", "2017-11-08", "2017-11-13", "2017-11-16", "2017-11-21", "2017-11-27", "2017-11-30", "2017-12-05", "2017-12-08", "2017-12-13", "2017-12-18", "2017-12-21", "2017-12-27", "2018-01-02", "2018-01-05", "2018-01-10", "2018-01-16", "2018-01-19", "2018-01-24", "2018-01-29", "2018-02-01", "2018-02-06", "2018-02-09", "2018-02-14", "2018-02-20", "2018-02-23", "2018-02-28", "2018-03-05", "2018-03-08", "2018-03-13", "2018-03-16", "2018-03-21", "2018-03-26", "2018-03-29", "2018-04-04", "2018-04-09", "2018-04-12", "2018-04-17", "2018-04-20", "2018-04-25", "2018-04-30", "2018-05-03", "2018-05-08", "2018-05-11", "2018-05-16", 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"-8.4%", "-4.8%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-2.6%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-3.1%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "+8.9%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "+8.3%"], ["2021", "+23.7%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+23.8%"], ["2022", "+30.2%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "+28.8%"], ["2023", "+12.4%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+7.5%"], ["2024", "+19.6%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+14.4%"], ["2025", "+14.8%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+10.7%"], ["2026", "+18.5%", "+2.3%", "+12.7%", "+16.3%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = +7.6% (t = +1.8).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vtv` +0.21, `qqq` -0.16, `efa` +0.14, `xly` -0.14, `xlf` +0.13, `iwm` -0.12 - net cash +1.18.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 1.00 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Market-neutral style premia: no static sleeve explains returns (R\u00b2 0.18 5y). Alpha vs a cash-like benchmark: +12.8%/yr full sample (t=4.0). Decomposition = pure factor harvesting (value/size/style tilts in both books); the 'exposures' in the table are residuals, not sleeves.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["QQQ -0.74", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["IVV +0.83", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["VNQ -0.25", "US REITs", "physical real estate: rents vs rates, leverage in the property sector; equity-like income"], ["GSG +0.09", "Broad commodities (SPDR)", "same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund"], ["FXY -0.26", "Long yen vs the dollar", "USD/JPY: carries the Japan rate differential; carry-trade crowding risk"], ["VEA +0.19", "Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard)", "developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to -0.16 \u2192 ~116% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.5 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Model says MIXED - the last 1099-DIV is the arbiter. _unclassified: Other 100%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves; long/short factor strategy: gains mix STCG/LTCG - check 1099_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +1.98", "n": 8, "rows": [["QSPNX (this fund)", "+197.1%", "+7.7%", "-41.8%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "MIXED (check 1099)"], ["BATPX", "+56.0%", "+2.0%", "-24.7%", "0.95", "+0.5% (t=+0.7)", "n/a"], ["RYMHX", "-37.0%", "-10.1%", "-95.1%", "0.67", "+0.9% (t=+0.2)", "n/a"], ["RYJUX", "+96.3%", "-3.4%", "-84.6%", "0.96", "-0.1% (t=-0.1)", "n/a"], ["RYAIX", "-57.2%", "-14.2%", "-98.8%", "0.97", "-0.7% (t=-0.5)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** 5y return at the top of the cluster; sharpest drawdown in the cluster."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3220, "start": "2013-10-31", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.21756779661954817, "alpha_ann": 0.06268029967428165, "alpha_t": 2.2511746174087692, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.13013064742949962, "t": 4.897945893435564}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": -0.06130821365881552, "t": -3.6626231381384087}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.40131073214336693, "t": -10.754756320172664}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.17758030242557613, "t": -1.5106630297154713}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.16215136099362817, "t": -7.008139954440589}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.3410230848133622, "t": -4.722553856186786}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.2161066302604794, "t": 3.953810728786186}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.10678972698800947, "t": 2.8058884644420257}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.07603699439271336, "t": 1.299573000450481}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.21686359803030228, "t": 9.710552522621649}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.06127646788435857, "t": -1.1261778235798798}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.7244992853571973, "t": 8.030726828645959}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": -0.04229807474578747, "t": -2.996606017478723}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.03379362070299665, "t": -2.6028758394271594}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.031629967357570205, "t": -1.0895099506150097}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.07011538204786605, "t": -2.834084120492537}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.002152610749379766, "t": 0.05987228099954686}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.06511969279211924, "t": -2.0083198605658645}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.0422768406404988, "t": -1.5064920679011697}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.056753411265167406, "t": -2.524955701676077}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.0035432928457708526, "t": -0.1311156680381963}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.002448484100933651, "t": -0.18394442561948518}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.3711998271680286, "alpha_ann": 0.12425543391250977, "alpha_t": 2.6202273177437934, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.2531087575278227, "t": 5.53392880701591}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": -0.11121737872556287, "t": -3.773019871343931}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.39141766156320124, "t": -6.763876801168999}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.23472978276293552, "t": -1.0997687220552619}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.2762072672405707, "t": -7.439999100596553}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.6615853640193899, "t": -5.3403758251816535}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.14994796761178553, "t": 1.807118583982252}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.7368838406723355, "t": 5.304758938587871}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.20410341494487905, "t": 2.1590840021111464}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.11571038598149817, "t": 3.6271717681102547}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.2009785663291911, "t": -2.3138155257725814}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.6824043676083218, "t": 4.764027790866101}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": -0.01770401377771567, "t": -0.8017250871549548}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.06614040892423882, "t": -3.4250371520122673}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.04817857857463379, "t": -0.8655137418555171}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.17248970247816214, "t": -4.481876960675733}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.21373716714553198, "t": 2.9676075130355404}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.2373567254035273, "t": -3.594925865254856}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.020872352593628248, "t": -0.4674330148089145}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.14173829052136266, "t": -3.624731160928516}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.032757436462061335, "t": -0.7566439661967832}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.027992545087929768, "t": 1.2011742202694822}]}, "identified": ["tlt", "vug", "vym", "rsp", "mtum", "iwm"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 22% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.22). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 13% of international developed equities (t +5); strong tilt away from US growth equities (\u03b2 -0.40, t -11); clear momentum tilt (preference for recent winners) (\u03b2 +0.22, t +10); clear dividend-appreciation tilt (growing payers) (\u03b2 +0.72, t +8); clear tilt away from US small caps (\u03b2 -0.16, t -7); modest cap-weight concentration (tilt away from equal-weight/small) (\u03b2 -0.34, t -5); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.22, t +4); modest developed-only tilt (away from emerging markets) (\u03b2 -0.06, t -4); modest tilt away from long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 -0.04, t -3); modest short-yen position that carries the USD/JPY rate differential (\u03b2 -0.07, t -3); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.11, t +3); modest tilt away from gold (\u03b2 -0.03, t -3); modest tilt away from healthcare (defensive) (\u03b2 -0.06, t -3); modest tilt away from utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (\u03b2 -0.07, t -2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest quality tilt (high-ROE, low-debt, stable earnings) (\u03b2 +0.20, t +2); modest underweight to high-dividend names (\u03b2 -0.20, t -2); modest long-AUD position (AUD carry) (\u03b2 +0.21, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +6.3%/year (t +2.3) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "svarx": {"meta": {"sym": "svarx", "name": "Spectrum Low Volatility Investor", "group": "shortlist", "order": 19, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund's investment objective is total return with lower downside volatility and risk compared to major stock market indices."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+20.8%", "cagr": "+6.1%", "mdd": "-6.5%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["SVARX is the Spectrum Low Volatility Investor. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment objective is total return with lower downside volatility and risk compared to major stock market indices. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster.", "Since 2013 it has compounded at +6.1% per year (a +112% total return) with +4% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 6%. Over the last five years it returned +20.8% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +4.9%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.30). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +0.8% per year over the last five years (t = 0.7) - at that t-stat it is not yet clearly different from a lucky streak. Over the full history the same estimate is +3.0% per year (t = 2.5). The stated strategy ('The Fund's investment objective is total return with lower downside volatility and risk compared to major...') is a plausible mechanism as well, but that is a hypothesis - the returns only tell us the outperformance exists, not why. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.26 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 70% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA)."], "chart": {"dates": ["2013-12-17", "2013-12-20", "2013-12-26", "2013-12-31", "2014-01-06", "2014-01-09", "2014-01-14", "2014-01-17", "2014-01-23", "2014-01-28", "2014-01-31", "2014-02-05", "2014-02-10", "2014-02-13", "2014-02-19", "2014-02-24", "2014-02-27", "2014-03-04", "2014-03-07", "2014-03-12", "2014-03-17", "2014-03-20", "2014-03-25", "2014-03-28", "2014-04-02", "2014-04-07", "2014-04-10", "2014-04-15", "2014-04-21", "2014-04-24", "2014-04-29", "2014-05-02", "2014-05-07", "2014-05-12", "2014-05-15", "2014-05-20", "2014-05-23", "2014-05-29", "2014-06-03", "2014-06-06", "2014-06-11", "2014-06-16", "2014-06-19", "2014-06-24", "2014-06-27", "2014-07-02", "2014-07-08", "2014-07-11", "2014-07-16", "2014-07-21", "2014-07-24", "2014-07-29", "2014-08-01", "2014-08-06", "2014-08-11", "2014-08-14", "2014-08-19", "2014-08-22", "2014-08-27", "2014-09-02", "2014-09-05", "2014-09-10", "2014-09-15", "2014-09-18", "2014-09-23", "2014-09-26", "2014-10-01", "2014-10-06", "2014-10-09", "2014-10-14", "2014-10-17", "2014-10-22", "2014-10-27", "2014-10-30", "2014-11-04", "2014-11-07", "2014-11-12", "2014-11-17", "2014-11-20", "2014-11-25", "2014-12-01", "2014-12-04", "2014-12-09", "2014-12-12", "2014-12-17", "2014-12-22", "2014-12-26", "2014-12-31", "2015-01-06", "2015-01-09", "2015-01-14", "2015-01-20", "2015-01-23", "2015-01-28", "2015-02-02", "2015-02-05", "2015-02-10", "2015-02-13", "2015-02-19", "2015-02-24", "2015-02-27", "2015-03-04", "2015-03-09", "2015-03-12", "2015-03-17", "2015-03-20", "2015-03-25", "2015-03-30", "2015-04-02", "2015-04-08", "2015-04-13", "2015-04-16", "2015-04-21", "2015-04-24", "2015-04-29", "2015-05-04", "2015-05-07", "2015-05-12", "2015-05-15", "2015-05-20", "2015-05-26", "2015-05-29", "2015-06-03", "2015-06-08", "2015-06-11", "2015-06-16", "2015-06-19", "2015-06-24", "2015-06-29", "2015-07-02", "2015-07-08", "2015-07-13", "2015-07-16", "2015-07-21", "2015-07-24", "2015-07-29", "2015-08-03", "2015-08-06", "2015-08-11", "2015-08-14", "2015-08-19", "2015-08-24", "2015-08-27", "2015-09-01", "2015-09-04", "2015-09-10", "2015-09-15", "2015-09-18", "2015-09-23", "2015-09-28", "2015-10-01", "2015-10-06", "2015-10-09", "2015-10-14", "2015-10-19", "2015-10-22", "2015-10-27", "2015-10-30", "2015-11-04", "2015-11-09", "2015-11-12", "2015-11-17", "2015-11-20", "2015-11-25", "2015-12-01", "2015-12-04", "2015-12-09", "2015-12-14", "2015-12-17", "2015-12-22", "2015-12-28", "2015-12-31", "2016-01-06", "2016-01-11", "2016-01-14", "2016-01-20", "2016-01-25", "2016-01-28", "2016-02-02", "2016-02-05", "2016-02-10", "2016-02-16", "2016-02-19", "2016-02-24", "2016-02-29", "2016-03-03", "2016-03-08", "2016-03-11", "2016-03-16", "2016-03-21", "2016-03-24", "2016-03-30", "2016-04-04", "2016-04-07", "2016-04-12", "2016-04-15", "2016-04-20", "2016-04-25", "2016-04-28", "2016-05-03", "2016-05-06", "2016-05-11", "2016-05-16", "2016-05-19", "2016-05-24", "2016-05-27", "2016-06-02", "2016-06-07", "2016-06-10", "2016-06-15", "2016-06-20", "2016-06-23", "2016-06-28", "2016-07-01", "2016-07-07", "2016-07-12", "2016-07-15", "2016-07-20", "2016-07-25", "2016-07-28", "2016-08-02", "2016-08-05", "2016-08-10", "2016-08-15", "2016-08-18", "2016-08-23", "2016-08-26", "2016-08-31", "2016-09-06", "2016-09-09", "2016-09-14", "2016-09-19", "2016-09-22", "2016-09-27", "2016-09-30", "2016-10-05", "2016-10-10", "2016-10-13", "2016-10-18", "2016-10-21", "2016-10-26", "2016-10-31", "2016-11-03", "2016-11-08", "2016-11-11", "2016-11-16", "2016-11-21", "2016-11-25", "2016-11-30", "2016-12-05", "2016-12-08", "2016-12-13", "2016-12-16", "2016-12-21", "2016-12-27", "2016-12-30", "2017-01-05", "2017-01-10", "2017-01-13", "2017-01-19", "2017-01-24", "2017-01-27", "2017-02-01", "2017-02-06", "2017-02-09", "2017-02-14", "2017-02-17", "2017-02-23", "2017-02-28", "2017-03-03", "2017-03-08", "2017-03-13", "2017-03-16", "2017-03-21", "2017-03-24", "2017-03-29", "2017-04-03", "2017-04-06", "2017-04-11", "2017-04-17", "2017-04-20", "2017-04-25", "2017-04-28", "2017-05-03", "2017-05-08", "2017-05-11", "2017-05-16", "2017-05-19", "2017-05-24", "2017-05-30", "2017-06-02", "2017-06-07", "2017-06-12", "2017-06-15", "2017-06-20", "2017-06-23", "2017-06-28", "2017-07-03", "2017-07-07", "2017-07-12", "2017-07-17", "2017-07-20", "2017-07-25", "2017-07-28", "2017-08-02", "2017-08-07", "2017-08-10", "2017-08-15", "2017-08-18", "2017-08-23", "2017-08-28", "2017-08-31", "2017-09-06", "2017-09-11", "2017-09-14", "2017-09-19", "2017-09-22", "2017-09-27", "2017-10-02", "2017-10-05", "2017-10-10", "2017-10-13", "2017-10-18", "2017-10-23", "2017-10-26", "2017-10-31", "2017-11-03", "2017-11-08", "2017-11-13", "2017-11-16", "2017-11-21", "2017-11-27", "2017-11-30", "2017-12-05", "2017-12-08", "2017-12-13", "2017-12-18", "2017-12-21", "2017-12-27", "2018-01-02", "2018-01-05", "2018-01-10", "2018-01-16", "2018-01-19", "2018-01-24", "2018-01-29", "2018-02-01", "2018-02-06", "2018-02-09", "2018-02-14", "2018-02-20", "2018-02-23", "2018-02-28", "2018-03-05", "2018-03-08", "2018-03-13", "2018-03-16", "2018-03-21", "2018-03-26", "2018-03-29", "2018-04-04", "2018-04-09", "2018-04-12", "2018-04-17", "2018-04-20", "2018-04-25", "2018-04-30", "2018-05-03", "2018-05-08", "2018-05-11", "2018-05-16", "2018-05-21", "2018-05-24", "2018-05-30", "2018-06-04", "2018-06-07", "2018-06-12", "2018-06-15", "2018-06-20", "2018-06-25", "2018-06-28", "2018-07-03", "2018-07-09", "2018-07-12", "2018-07-17", "2018-07-20", "2018-07-25", "2018-07-30", "2018-08-02", "2018-08-07", "2018-08-10", "2018-08-15", "2018-08-20", "2018-08-23", 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858.5387683809412, 850.0936175043507, 829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+112.0%", "+24.9%", "+433.2%", "+87.1%"], ["Last 5y", "+20.8%", "+19.2%", "+124.4%", "+1.7%"], ["Last 1y", "+4.9%", "+3.6%", "+21.0%", "+1.3%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-5.6%", "+0.6%", "-24.5%", "-6.2%"], ["2023 rate shock", "+0.6%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-0.7%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-0.2%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "-0.5%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-0.8%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-1.3%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-1.1%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-1.7%"], ["2021", "+4.1%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+4.2%"], ["2022", "-4.3%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-5.8%"], ["2023", "+9.8%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+4.8%"], ["2024", "+3.0%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "-2.1%"], ["2025", "+6.2%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+2.1%"], ["2026", "+1.6%", "+2.3%", "+12.7%", "-0.7%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = +3.0% (t = +2.5).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vweax` +0.04, `dbmf` +0.02, `fxy` +0.02, `emb` +0.02, `vblix` +0.02, `vmbix` +0.02 - net cash +0.74.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.26 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Low-volatility equity fund of funds. Small but positive net market (efa +0.07, agg +0.10; R\u00b2 0.24, low drift). The edge is in volatility selection, not the mix: +5.2%/yr alpha over that small sleeve (t=5.1).*"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWEAX +0.16", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["AGG +0.12", "Aggregate bonds (Treasuries + IG credit)", "the core bond market: ~60% Treasuries, IG corporates, MBS; moderate duration"], ["VEA +0.03", "Intl developed ex-US (Vanguard)", "developed-market equities outside the US (EU, Japan, UK); FX-hedged-off, currency moves matter"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.31 \u2192 ~69% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.23 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**. _unclassified: Fund holdings 40%, US govt 10%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["SVARX (this fund)", "+20.8%", "+6.1%", "-6.5%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "IRA"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 143pp; deeper drawdown than the calmest peer (-6.5% vs -14.2%)."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3187, "start": "2013-12-18", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.15059019457641698, "alpha_ann": 0.03897611378355068, "alpha_t": 3.8552289418551093, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.050873801338216694, "t": 5.290514099317152}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.002635980855284216, "t": 0.4338065027705207}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.02140505633350941, "t": 1.584080079031235}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.03103841541152442, "t": 0.7292352872019855}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.010627965564639763, "t": 1.2670261306536235}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.04552532496702073, "t": 1.7386623588908676}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.02467730518924487, "t": -1.2481016910404028}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.04305578626410382, "t": 3.127330859716843}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.00271643996209578, "t": 0.1278954251088936}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.039889442456866715, "t": -4.929881032991152}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.009679335962246034, "t": 0.49123933889011195}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.03500572673684247, "t": -1.0716171682867406}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.031658430097837316, "t": 6.181678418899429}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.005241782011842838, "t": -1.1103655984533893}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.0080820112340093, "t": 0.7667299739072445}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.011680954763732807, "t": 1.2978201813526924}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.019948895625980755, "t": 1.5318169508695447}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.016886455487254294, "t": -1.438398702510259}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.022664301657069723, "t": -2.2285152823133956}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.007375479651399636, "t": -0.9063318939396482}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.015832109690764873, "t": -1.617412331513936}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.01029915889252106, "t": -2.1381850147409263}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.2588057554134884, "alpha_ann": 0.0038041469542131894, "alpha_t": 0.3452363638970198, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.020884081070925684, "t": 1.9650673275478572}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": -0.0033247410470223365, "t": -0.4854113549715325}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.03435983663785652, "t": 2.555300792212678}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.1009741539604785, "t": 2.0360060246837413}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.012712406472073562, "t": 1.4736733214891222}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.003433342814387854, "t": 0.1192720737414683}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.0403828739928147, "t": -2.0944932295822642}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.014699257685608353, "t": -0.4554048929146431}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.00891664768569495, "t": -0.40593504300194694}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.015462720337005614, "t": -2.0860146302256695}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.005572577489904284, "t": 0.27610277522254145}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.009087731493849806, "t": -0.273038345726397}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.04731255163894296, "t": 9.220739954201724}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.003405800541326235, "t": 0.7590201227607358}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.023752852138059985, "t": 1.8364174833574993}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.026257341323167684, "t": 2.936183373149624}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.018549184879212633, "t": 1.1083754846827054}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.01881857921381868, "t": -1.2266224163499944}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.02133836964236096, "t": -2.0565765689057565}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.0028644171094241175, "t": -0.31525395130516276}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.011309742609698793, "t": -1.1242685337917615}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.009623707984355755, "t": -1.7772221672783501}]}, "identified": ["efa", "tlt", "iwm", "mtum"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 15% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.15). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 5% of international developed equities (t +5); clear tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 +0.03, t +6); modest anti-momentum character - it does not chase recent winners (low-turnover/contrarian) (\u03b2 -0.04, t -5); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.04, t +3); modest tilt away from consumer staples (defensive) (\u03b2 -0.02, t -2); modest tilt away from energy (\u03b2 -0.01, t -2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt toward US growth equities (\u03b2 +0.03, t +3); modest tilt toward US value equities (\u03b2 +0.10, t +2); modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.04, t -2); modest long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (\u03b2 +0.03, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +3.9%/year (t +3.9) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "cosix": {"meta": {"sym": "cosix", "name": "Columbia Strategic Income Fund", "group": "shortlist", "order": 20, "verdict": "sleeve mix (R\u00b2 high) - not alpha-driven", "objective": "The Fund seeks total return, consisting of current income and capital appreciation."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+12.1%", "cagr": "+5.5%", "mdd": "-26.2%", "r2_5y": "0.87", "alpha_5y": "+0.3% (t=+0.5)"}, "narrative": ["COSIX is the Columbia Strategic Income Fund. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks total return, consisting of current income and capital appreciation. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.31' cluster with 200 other funds.", "Since 1986 it has compounded at +5.5% per year (a +794% total return) with +5% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 26%. Over the last five years it returned +12.1% versus +5.5% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +2.9%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2024 vol spike' (+1.3%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-13.8%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest. Its drawdown screen verdict: sleeve mix (R\u00b2 high) - not alpha-driven.", "The fit is strong: 87% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of +0.3% per year (t = 0.5) - is statistically indistinguishable from zero, i.e. the strategy is not clearly adding anything on top of the mix it owns. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions [strategy evolved \u2014 5y R\u00b2 = 0.86]. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.83 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 13% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way. The alpha is also not steady: in 49% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (N-PORT holdings says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is SGYAX (5y +34.4%, alpha t = +1.5); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.15 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["1986-01-02", "1986-01-13", "1986-01-22", "1986-01-31", "1986-02-11", "1986-02-21", "1986-03-04", "1986-03-13", "1986-03-24", "1986-04-03", "1986-04-14", "1986-04-23", "1986-05-02", "1986-05-13", "1986-05-22", "1986-06-03", "1986-06-12", "1986-06-23", "1986-07-02", "1986-07-14", "1986-07-23", "1986-08-01", "1986-08-12", "1986-08-21", "1986-09-02", "1986-09-11", "1986-09-22", "1986-10-01", "1986-10-10", "1986-10-21", "1986-10-30", "1986-11-10", "1986-11-19", "1986-12-01", "1986-12-10", "1986-12-19", "1986-12-31", "1987-01-12", "1987-01-21", "1987-01-30", "1987-02-10", "1987-02-20", "1987-03-03", "1987-03-12", "1987-03-23", "1987-04-01", "1987-04-10", "1987-04-22", "1987-05-01", "1987-05-12", "1987-05-21", "1987-06-02", "1987-06-11", "1987-06-22", "1987-07-01", "1987-07-13", "1987-07-22", "1987-07-31", "1987-08-11", "1987-08-20", "1987-08-31", "1987-09-10", "1987-09-21", "1987-09-30", "1987-10-09", "1987-10-20", "1987-10-29", "1987-11-09", "1987-11-18", "1987-11-30", "1987-12-09", "1987-12-18", "1987-12-30", "1988-01-11", "1988-01-20", "1988-01-29", "1988-02-09", "1988-02-19", "1988-03-01", "1988-03-10", "1988-03-21", "1988-03-30", "1988-04-11", "1988-04-20", "1988-04-29", "1988-05-10", "1988-05-19", "1988-05-31", "1988-06-09", "1988-06-20", "1988-06-29", "1988-07-11", "1988-07-20", "1988-07-29", "1988-08-09", "1988-08-18", "1988-08-29", "1988-09-08", "1988-09-19", "1988-09-28", "1988-10-07", "1988-10-18", "1988-10-27", "1988-11-07", "1988-11-16", "1988-11-28", "1988-12-07", "1988-12-16", "1988-12-28", "1989-01-09", "1989-01-18", "1989-01-27", "1989-02-07", "1989-02-16", "1989-02-28", "1989-03-09", "1989-03-20", "1989-03-30", "1989-04-10", "1989-04-19", "1989-04-28", "1989-05-09", "1989-05-18", "1989-05-30", "1989-06-08", "1989-06-19", "1989-06-28", "1989-07-10", "1989-07-19", "1989-07-28", "1989-08-08", "1989-08-17", "1989-08-28", "1989-09-07", "1989-09-18", "1989-09-27", "1989-10-06", "1989-10-17", "1989-10-26", "1989-11-06", "1989-11-15", "1989-11-27", "1989-12-06", "1989-12-15", "1989-12-27", "1990-01-08", "1990-01-17", "1990-01-26", "1990-02-06", "1990-02-15", "1990-02-27", "1990-03-08", "1990-03-19", "1990-03-28", "1990-04-06", "1990-04-18", "1990-04-27", "1990-05-08", "1990-05-17", "1990-05-29", "1990-06-07", "1990-06-18", "1990-06-27", "1990-07-09", "1990-07-18", "1990-07-27", "1990-08-07", "1990-08-16", "1990-08-27", "1990-09-06", "1990-09-17", "1990-09-26", "1990-10-05", "1990-10-16", "1990-10-25", "1990-11-05", "1990-11-14", "1990-11-26", "1990-12-05", "1990-12-14", "1990-12-26", "1991-01-07", "1991-01-16", "1991-01-25", "1991-02-05", "1991-02-14", "1991-02-26", "1991-03-07", "1991-03-18", "1991-03-27", "1991-04-08", "1991-04-17", "1991-04-26", "1991-05-07", "1991-05-16", "1991-05-28", "1991-06-06", "1991-06-17", "1991-06-26", "1991-07-08", "1991-07-17", "1991-07-26", "1991-08-06", "1991-08-15", "1991-08-26", "1991-09-05", "1991-09-16", "1991-09-25", "1991-10-04", "1991-10-15", "1991-10-24", "1991-11-04", "1991-11-13", "1991-11-22", "1991-12-04", "1991-12-13", "1991-12-24", "1992-01-06", "1992-01-15", "1992-01-24", "1992-02-04", "1992-02-13", "1992-02-25", "1992-03-05", "1992-03-16", "1992-03-25", "1992-04-03", "1992-04-14", "1992-04-24", "1992-05-05", "1992-05-14", "1992-05-26", "1992-06-04", "1992-06-15", "1992-06-24", "1992-07-06", "1992-07-15", "1992-07-24", "1992-08-04", "1992-08-13", "1992-08-24", "1992-09-02", "1992-09-14", "1992-09-23", "1992-10-02", "1992-10-13", "1992-10-22", "1992-11-02", "1992-11-11", "1992-11-20", "1992-12-02", "1992-12-11", "1992-12-22", "1993-01-04", "1993-01-13", "1993-01-22", "1993-02-02", "1993-02-11", "1993-02-23", "1993-03-04", "1993-03-15", "1993-03-24", "1993-04-02", "1993-04-14", "1993-04-23", "1993-05-04", "1993-05-13", "1993-05-24", "1993-06-03", "1993-06-14", "1993-06-23", "1993-07-02", "1993-07-14", "1993-07-23", "1993-08-03", "1993-08-12", "1993-08-23", "1993-09-01", "1993-09-13", "1993-09-22", "1993-10-01", "1993-10-12", "1993-10-21", "1993-11-01", "1993-11-10", "1993-11-19", "1993-12-01", "1993-12-10", "1993-12-21", "1993-12-31", "1994-01-11", "1994-01-20", "1994-01-31", "1994-02-09", "1994-02-18", "1994-03-02", "1994-03-11", "1994-03-22", "1994-03-31", "1994-04-12", "1994-04-21", "1994-05-03", "1994-05-12", "1994-05-23", "1994-06-02", "1994-06-13", "1994-06-22", "1994-07-01", "1994-07-13", "1994-07-22", "1994-08-02", "1994-08-11", "1994-08-22", "1994-08-31", "1994-09-12", "1994-09-21", "1994-09-30", "1994-10-11", "1994-10-20", "1994-10-31", "1994-11-09", "1994-11-18", "1994-11-30", "1994-12-09", "1994-12-20", "1994-12-30", "1995-01-11", "1995-01-20", "1995-01-31", "1995-02-09", "1995-02-21", "1995-03-02", "1995-03-13", "1995-03-22", "1995-03-31", "1995-04-11", "1995-04-21", "1995-05-02", "1995-05-11", "1995-05-22", "1995-06-01", "1995-06-12", "1995-06-21", "1995-06-30", "1995-07-12", "1995-07-21", "1995-08-01", "1995-08-10", "1995-08-21", "1995-08-30", "1995-09-11", "1995-09-20", "1995-09-29", "1995-10-10", "1995-10-19", "1995-10-30", "1995-11-08", "1995-11-17", "1995-11-29", "1995-12-08", "1995-12-19", "1995-12-29", "1996-01-10", "1996-01-19", "1996-01-30", "1996-02-08", "1996-02-20", "1996-02-29", "1996-03-11", "1996-03-20", "1996-03-29", "1996-04-10", "1996-04-19", "1996-04-30", "1996-05-09", "1996-05-20", "1996-05-30", "1996-06-10", "1996-06-19", "1996-06-28", "1996-07-10", "1996-07-19", "1996-07-30", "1996-08-08", "1996-08-19", "1996-08-28", "1996-09-09", "1996-09-18", "1996-09-27", "1996-10-08", "1996-10-17", "1996-10-28", "1996-11-06", "1996-11-15", "1996-11-26", "1996-12-06", "1996-12-17", "1996-12-27", "1997-01-08", "1997-01-17", "1997-01-28", "1997-02-06", "1997-02-18", "1997-02-27", "1997-03-10", "1997-03-19", "1997-03-31", "1997-04-09", "1997-04-18", "1997-04-29", "1997-05-08", "1997-05-19", "1997-05-29", "1997-06-09", "1997-06-18", "1997-06-27", "1997-07-09", "1997-07-18", "1997-07-29", 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770.7185962217277, 753.2539760920974, 746.204477374851, 731.6175305238098, 743.9803742064752, 770.6929619814466, 805.3990946915524, 809.8249135200988, 817.4232344841527, 836.5714255698672, 838.2424227975112, 845.7955555452916, 860.337383235379, 838.4794183902876, 856.229333214513, 834.4826119610877, 847.784251393242, 847.9766813996756, 858.5387683809412, 850.0936175043507, 829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+793.7%", "+80.2%", "+770.9%", "+713.5%"], ["Last 5y", "+12.1%", "+5.5%", "+124.4%", "+6.6%"], ["Last 1y", "+2.9%", "+2.8%", "+21.0%", "+0.1%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-13.8%", "-11.4%", "-24.5%", "-2.4%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-3.4%", "-3.8%", "-9.9%", "+0.5%"], ["2024 vol spike", "+1.3%", "+1.1%", "-8.4%", "+0.2%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "+0.0%", "-0.0%", "-18.8%", "+0.0%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-0.8%", "-0.6%", "-8.9%", "-0.2%"], ["2021", "+1.6%", "+0.2%", "+30.6%", "+1.4%"], ["2022", "-11.4%", "-8.6%", "-18.6%", "-2.8%"], ["2023", "+9.4%", "+5.2%", "+26.9%", "+4.2%"], ["2024", "+5.0%", "+2.3%", "+25.7%", "+2.6%"], ["2025", "+7.0%", "+6.8%", "+18.1%", "+0.2%"], ["2026", "+1.4%", "+0.6%", "+12.7%", "+0.8%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.87, alpha = +0.3% (t = +0.5)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.64, alpha = +1.0% (t = +1.9).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `vmbix` +0.08, `vweax` +0.08, `ief` +0.06, `tlt` +0.06, `agg` +0.05, `emb` +0.04 - net cash +0.42.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions [strategy evolved \u2014 5y R\u00b2 = 0.86]", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.83 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Strategic income across the credit spectrum. Full sample (since 1990) unexplainable \u2014 vintage; the last 5 years are the honest current mix: high-yield +0.30, MBS +0.29, IG core +0.18 (R\u00b2 0.86).*", "**Screen verdict:** sleeve mix (R\u00b2 high) - not alpha-driven"], "reference": {"rows": [["VMBIX +0.29", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["VWEAX +0.27", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"], ["AGG +0.14", "Aggregate bonds (Treasuries + IG credit)", "the core bond market: ~60% Treasuries, IG corporates, MBS; moderate duration"], ["EFA +0.03", "Intl developed ex-US (MSCI EAFE)", "developed-market equities outside the US; same exposure as VEA via a different index provider"], ["QQQ -0.02", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["VBLIX +0.05", "VIX futures (pure vol axis)", "crash insurance / short-vol funding; positive loading = long-vol (rises in panic), negative = short-vol carry"]], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.76 \u2192 ~24% net cash", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 0.0 (from actual N-PORT holdings (high confidence)). Recommended account: **IRA**. _unclassified: Other 30%_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.31", "n": 201, "rows": [["COSIX (this fund)", "+12.1%", "+5.5%", "-26.2%", "0.87", "+0.3% (t=+0.5)", "IRA"], ["SGYAX", "+34.4%", "+4.9%", "-36.4%", "0.81", "+1.3% (t=+1.5)", "n/a"], ["WCPBX", "+10.2%", "+3.4%", "-13.5%", "0.89", "+0.9% (t=+1.4)", "n/a"], ["MGVAX", "+3.7%", "+3.8%", "-17.2%", "0.92", "+0.8% (t=+1.2)", "n/a"], ["HYSAX", "+29.2%", "+4.4%", "-18.3%", "0.72", "+1.0% (t=+1.2)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 22pp."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3293, "start": "2013-07-19", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.37979248221403317, "alpha_ann": 0.01131388053142963, "alpha_t": 1.3157065756158093, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.0694342892599518, "t": 8.445577858176746}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.01974642779274433, "t": 3.8364501085840748}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.006763029701847475, "t": 0.5902391684535983}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.06600518117508367, "t": 1.8087507846837898}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 4.3361064031364704e-05, "t": 0.006030972190499391}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.05933535506274072, "t": 2.6453276660547718}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.020861327081051873, "t": 1.2271217021500227}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.005790412797597879, "t": -0.4885967207263559}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.02480402626654414, "t": -1.4016316312905315}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.027600219987326896, "t": -3.974098383359845}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.021170650745572624, "t": -1.254914697157057}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.04438709662384529, "t": -1.5832063186643854}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.1028618811259704, "t": 23.514582946720427}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": -0.0074735134490802975, "t": -1.8771533567074892}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.018683799343665975, "t": -2.07213048785746}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.04841492109821396, "t": 6.3414812942131835}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.00025712091130524264, "t": 0.0230667759007803}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.01107216086308769, "t": 1.1013215221624006}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.006394969613788947, "t": -0.7349722563423254}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.0018541576284388968, "t": -0.26582404873041127}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.008211056720953508, "t": 0.9769659765548209}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.00257733549131043, "t": -0.6240555637250038}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.706723581335362, "alpha_ann": 0.006224231994393486, "alpha_t": 0.6288924072796774, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.040074937298191775, "t": 4.198230188746828}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.01020539675299792, "t": 1.6588737342058253}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.020403369174924583, "t": 1.6893675905798298}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.0895910454924225, "t": 2.011244047447064}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.007900436613140051, "t": 1.0196611554775754}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.05670809846586874, "t": 2.193299891126053}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.035948156690429854, "t": -2.0758200114374743}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.05128466498070606, "t": -1.7689727510385798}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.014519932317389746, "t": -0.7359543222441054}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.017688829564106705, "t": -2.656818444251683}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": 0.010181223266123822, "t": 0.561624374900773}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": -0.06534510682893861, "t": -2.18581076607686}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.18495495451631683, "t": 40.13162118235172}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.001847448616604787, "t": 0.45839279112425885}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.03777239103578387, "t": 3.25133307361027}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.03654996687722068, "t": 4.550412255775457}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.0362822885918825, "t": 2.413726654221515}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.021331492181806574, "t": -1.5480202348517431}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.012763010264942289, "t": -1.3695191179674755}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.008563013715352225, "t": -1.0492579064102654}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.024877863777020524, "t": 2.75335209053864}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.002886832521575828, "t": -0.5935430246307202}]}, "identified": ["efa", "tlt", "fxy", "fxu", "xlu"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 38% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.38). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 7% of international developed equities (t +8); strong tilt toward long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 +0.10, t +24); clear long-yen position (safe-haven/carry) (\u03b2 +0.05, t +6); modest anti-momentum character - it does not chase recent winners (low-turnover/contrarian) (\u03b2 -0.03, t -4); modest an emerging-market tilt (\u03b2 +0.02, t +4); modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (\u03b2 +0.06, t +3); modest short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (\u03b2 -0.02, t -2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest tilt toward US value equities (\u03b2 +0.09, t +2); modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.04, t -2); modest tilt away from high dividend (appreciation-tilted) (\u03b2 -0.07, t -2); modest long-AUD position (AUD carry) (\u03b2 +0.04, t +2); modest tilt toward banks/financials (\u03b2 +0.02, t +3) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is +1.1%/year (t +1.3) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "mbxix": {"meta": {"sym": "mbxix", "name": "Catalyst/Millburn Hedge Strategy I", "group": "shortlist", "order": 21, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund's investment objective is long-term capital appreciation."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+69.4%", "cagr": "+9.0%", "mdd": "-31.7%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["MBXIX is the Catalyst/Millburn Hedge Strategy I. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment objective is long-term capital appreciation. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'cash (net posn) +1.98' cluster.", "Since 2015 it has compounded at +9.0% per year (a +149% total return) with +13% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 32%. Over the last five years it returned +69.4% versus +45.3% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +16.3%. It was positive in 5 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The measured exposures explain a good share but not all (53% R\u00b2) of its excess returns. The main ones: exposure to trend-following across futures, a small tilt to mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk, a small tilt to broad commodities. The residual is -0.8% per year (t = -0.2): not statistically distinct from noise at the five-year horizon, so treat the outperformance as part beta, part luck until it accumulates more history. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.77 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so treat this as a tactically active fund, not a static mix.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 47% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way. Caveat: newest N-PORT on file is Sep 2024 \u2014 the fund may have changed strategy or stopped filing - the holdings check is the ground truth here, and the return model is only a description of it.", "Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE (defers to LTCG))."], "chart": {"dates": ["2015-12-28", "2015-12-30", "2016-01-04", "2016-01-06", "2016-01-08", "2016-01-12", "2016-01-14", "2016-01-19", "2016-01-21", "2016-01-25", "2016-01-27", "2016-01-29", "2016-02-02", "2016-02-04", "2016-02-08", "2016-02-10", "2016-02-12", "2016-02-17", "2016-02-19", "2016-02-23", "2016-02-25", "2016-02-29", "2016-03-02", "2016-03-04", "2016-03-08", "2016-03-10", "2016-03-14", "2016-03-16", "2016-03-18", "2016-03-22", "2016-03-24", "2016-03-29", "2016-03-31", "2016-04-04", "2016-04-06", "2016-04-08", "2016-04-12", "2016-04-14", "2016-04-18", "2016-04-20", "2016-04-22", "2016-04-26", "2016-04-28", "2016-05-02", "2016-05-04", "2016-05-06", "2016-05-10", "2016-05-12", "2016-05-16", "2016-05-18", "2016-05-20", "2016-05-24", "2016-05-26", "2016-05-31", "2016-06-02", "2016-06-06", "2016-06-08", "2016-06-10", "2016-06-14", "2016-06-16", "2016-06-20", "2016-06-22", "2016-06-24", "2016-06-28", "2016-06-30", "2016-07-05", "2016-07-07", "2016-07-11", "2016-07-13", "2016-07-15", "2016-07-19", "2016-07-21", "2016-07-25", "2016-07-27", "2016-07-29", "2016-08-02", "2016-08-04", "2016-08-08", "2016-08-10", "2016-08-12", "2016-08-16", "2016-08-18", "2016-08-22", "2016-08-24", "2016-08-26", "2016-08-30", "2016-09-01", "2016-09-06", "2016-09-08", "2016-09-12", "2016-09-14", "2016-09-16", "2016-09-20", "2016-09-22", "2016-09-26", "2016-09-28", "2016-09-30", "2016-10-04", "2016-10-06", "2016-10-10", "2016-10-12", "2016-10-14", "2016-10-18", "2016-10-20", "2016-10-24", "2016-10-26", "2016-10-28", "2016-11-01", "2016-11-03", "2016-11-07", "2016-11-09", "2016-11-11", "2016-11-15", "2016-11-17", "2016-11-21", "2016-11-23", "2016-11-28", "2016-11-30", "2016-12-02", "2016-12-06", "2016-12-08", "2016-12-12", "2016-12-14", "2016-12-16", "2016-12-20", "2016-12-22", "2016-12-27", "2016-12-29", "2017-01-03", "2017-01-05", "2017-01-09", "2017-01-11", "2017-01-13", "2017-01-18", "2017-01-20", "2017-01-24", "2017-01-26", "2017-01-30", "2017-02-01", "2017-02-03", "2017-02-07", "2017-02-09", "2017-02-13", "2017-02-15", "2017-02-17", "2017-02-22", "2017-02-24", "2017-02-28", "2017-03-02", "2017-03-06", "2017-03-08", "2017-03-10", "2017-03-14", "2017-03-16", "2017-03-20", "2017-03-22", "2017-03-24", "2017-03-28", "2017-03-30", "2017-04-03", "2017-04-05", "2017-04-07", "2017-04-11", "2017-04-13", "2017-04-18", "2017-04-20", "2017-04-24", "2017-04-26", "2017-04-28", "2017-05-02", "2017-05-04", "2017-05-08", "2017-05-10", "2017-05-12", "2017-05-16", "2017-05-18", "2017-05-22", "2017-05-24", "2017-05-26", "2017-05-31", "2017-06-02", "2017-06-06", "2017-06-08", "2017-06-12", "2017-06-14", "2017-06-16", "2017-06-20", "2017-06-22", "2017-06-26", "2017-06-28", "2017-06-30", "2017-07-05", "2017-07-07", "2017-07-11", "2017-07-13", "2017-07-17", "2017-07-19", "2017-07-21", "2017-07-25", "2017-07-27", "2017-07-31", "2017-08-02", "2017-08-04", "2017-08-08", "2017-08-10", "2017-08-14", "2017-08-16", "2017-08-18", "2017-08-22", "2017-08-24", "2017-08-28", "2017-08-30", "2017-09-01", "2017-09-06", "2017-09-08", "2017-09-12", "2017-09-14", "2017-09-18", "2017-09-20", "2017-09-22", "2017-09-26", "2017-09-28", "2017-10-02", "2017-10-04", "2017-10-06", "2017-10-10", "2017-10-12", "2017-10-16", "2017-10-18", "2017-10-20", "2017-10-24", "2017-10-26", "2017-10-30", "2017-11-01", "2017-11-03", "2017-11-07", "2017-11-09", "2017-11-13", "2017-11-15", "2017-11-17", "2017-11-21", "2017-11-24", "2017-11-28", "2017-11-30", "2017-12-04", "2017-12-06", "2017-12-08", "2017-12-12", "2017-12-14", "2017-12-18", "2017-12-20", "2017-12-22", "2017-12-27", "2017-12-29", "2018-01-03", "2018-01-05", "2018-01-09", "2018-01-11", "2018-01-16", "2018-01-18", "2018-01-22", "2018-01-24", "2018-01-26", "2018-01-30", "2018-02-01", "2018-02-05", "2018-02-07", "2018-02-09", "2018-02-13", "2018-02-15", "2018-02-20", "2018-02-22", "2018-02-26", "2018-02-28", "2018-03-02", "2018-03-06", "2018-03-08", "2018-03-12", "2018-03-14", "2018-03-16", "2018-03-20", "2018-03-22", "2018-03-26", "2018-03-28", "2018-04-02", "2018-04-04", "2018-04-06", "2018-04-10", "2018-04-12", "2018-04-16", "2018-04-18", "2018-04-20", "2018-04-24", "2018-04-26", "2018-04-30", "2018-05-02", "2018-05-04", "2018-05-08", "2018-05-10", "2018-05-14", "2018-05-16", "2018-05-18", "2018-05-22", "2018-05-24", "2018-05-29", "2018-05-31", "2018-06-04", "2018-06-06", "2018-06-08", "2018-06-12", "2018-06-14", "2018-06-18", "2018-06-20", "2018-06-22", "2018-06-26", "2018-06-28", "2018-07-02", "2018-07-05", "2018-07-09", "2018-07-11", "2018-07-13", "2018-07-17", "2018-07-19", "2018-07-23", "2018-07-25", "2018-07-27", "2018-07-31", "2018-08-02", "2018-08-06", "2018-08-08", "2018-08-10", "2018-08-14", "2018-08-16", 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741.9227215276541, 754.5794272927635, 756.8460232558393, 745.0194960148061, 757.3509014141805, 766.6190445333908, 755.7239184623767, 757.8894978134142, 735.8075277000132, 770.714519693762, 773.2166610879026, 768.7958176385309, 769.6264093624704, 777.9814600277924, 782.463108384158, 784.6925310762523, 775.0650240738165, 786.7532233211904, 776.1572799883932, 782.6432386193211, 774.3443627584163, 779.6704218270236, 770.7185962217277, 753.2539760920974, 746.204477374851, 731.6175305238098, 743.9803742064752, 770.6929619814466, 805.3990946915524, 809.8249135200988, 817.4232344841527, 836.5714255698672, 838.2424227975112, 845.7955555452916, 860.337383235379, 838.4794183902876, 856.229333214513, 834.4826119610877, 847.784251393242, 847.9766813996756, 858.5387683809412, 850.0936175043507, 829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+149.5%", "+62.2%", "+343.2%", "+87.3%"], ["Last 5y", "+69.4%", "+45.3%", "+124.4%", "+24.1%"], ["Last 1y", "+16.3%", "+11.1%", "+21.0%", "+5.2%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "+10.9%", "+6.7%", "-24.5%", "+4.2%"], ["2023 rate shock", "+2.3%", "-0.8%", "-9.9%", "+3.1%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-6.6%", "-5.8%", "-8.4%", "-0.8%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-13.3%", "-11.3%", "-18.8%", "-2.0%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "+4.0%", "+0.1%", "-8.9%", "+4.0%"], ["2021", "+17.5%", "+16.1%", "+30.6%", "+1.4%"], ["2022", "+7.4%", "+4.5%", "-18.6%", "+2.9%"], ["2023", "+1.4%", "+2.4%", "+26.9%", "-1.0%"], ["2024", "+13.4%", "+7.2%", "+25.7%", "+6.3%"], ["2025", "+3.7%", "-2.3%", "+18.1%", "+5.9%"], ["2026", "+12.7%", "+10.4%", "+12.7%", "+2.3%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = -1.9% (t = -0.6).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `dbmf` +0.18, `vmbix` -0.12, `gsg` +0.09, `iwm` +0.08, `fxe` -0.07, `ief` -0.07 - net cash +0.97.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.77 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Multi-strategy hedge fund: 53% explained over a decade (ivv +0.39, ief \u22120.67, fxe \u22120.28, tlt +0.17, djp +0.08) \u2014 equity long, duration short, FX/commodity tilts, large active residual. Caveat: newest N-PORT on file is Sep 2024 \u2014 the fund may have changed strategy or stopped filing.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["IVV +0.26", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["VMBIX -0.60", "Agency RMBS (mortgage-backed)", "mortgage credit + prepayment/extension risk; the refi cycle"], ["GSG +0.11", "Broad commodities (SPDR)", "same commodity exposure as DBB via a different fund"], ["IWM +0.16", "US small cap (Russell 2000)", "small-cap cycle: domestic credit, margin pressure, IPO window"], ["FXE -0.18", "Long euros vs the dollar", "EUR/USD: carries the euro interest-rate differential"], ["VWEAX -0.22", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"]], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to -0.48 \u2192 ~148% net cash", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 0.5 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account (income mostly defers to the LTCG/ROC rate). _~76% of 5y return defers to the investor (price appreciation + return of capital) - taxed as YOUR LTCG on a >1y sale, not ordinary income as in a traditional IRA. unclassified: Fund holdings 77%, US govt 23%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves; hedge fund: gains often short-term - check 1099_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +1.98", "n": 8, "rows": [["MBXIX (this fund)", "+69.4%", "+9.0%", "-31.7%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "TAXABLE (defers to LTCG)"], ["BATPX", "+56.0%", "+2.0%", "-24.7%", "0.95", "+0.5% (t=+0.7)", "n/a"], ["RYMHX", "-37.0%", "-10.1%", "-95.1%", "0.67", "+0.9% (t=+0.2)", "n/a"], ["RYJUX", "+96.3%", "-3.4%", "-84.6%", "0.96", "-0.1% (t=-0.1)", "n/a"], ["RYAIX", "-57.2%", "-14.2%", "-98.8%", "0.97", "-0.7% (t=-0.5)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Advantages vs peers:** sharpest drawdown in the cluster. **Disadvantages:** 5y return trails the best peer by 27pp; meaningfully more volatile than the calmest peer."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 2677, "start": "2015-12-29", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.5596213714399592, "alpha_ann": 0.005875132588092053, "alpha_t": 0.21739570532729327, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.011798005464324773, "t": 0.45940987016498896}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.05200296445266319, "t": 3.153792223343367}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.02295875574434784, "t": 0.6410397590520392}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.017772056102228526, "t": -0.15757688320421895}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.12339953381460904, "t": 5.579684329374807}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.13196509762557151, "t": 1.935924460815999}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.2515280654072177, "t": 5.005498617681077}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.17566325485247938, "t": -5.096053588634109}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.07693940289462221, "t": -1.350272860939794}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.08695090080088505, "t": 4.18118236380808}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.006039868920975966, "t": -0.11714776977747644}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.17636555724633202, "t": 2.0578191857086336}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": -0.08244000281833336, "t": -6.11487205891786}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.00835184475335417, "t": 0.6671958078251453}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.24836997766432256, "t": -8.14227331575255}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.06619425454326953, "t": -2.822322865321772}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.01918334935135201, "t": 0.5631075116287657}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.07521129120347181, "t": -2.4436115659257864}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.037149442735316535, "t": -1.421383659207987}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.005342803461791834, "t": -0.24100388317129282}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.03854336171172479, "t": -1.5137126988464487}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.08910024800073504, "t": 7.101591404989186}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.4586839823776766, "alpha_ann": -0.018422958812798457, "alpha_t": -0.5009595273660075, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": -0.02203421996267091, "t": -0.6212176063323902}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.019249994051089004, "t": 0.8421059125815248}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": -0.0167548625165151, "t": -0.37334971030574465}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": -0.15866133134784746, "t": -0.9585702381702064}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": 0.06403543071104865, "t": 2.2242202813036815}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.20363746313360465, "t": 2.1196457755365916}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.11365393784740878, "t": 1.7662421127791956}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.13086368726825726, "t": -1.2148018731178802}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.01817910691372746, "t": 0.24797705137486295}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.11705959602180835, "t": 4.73175751674722}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.04140708081170808, "t": -0.6147142494199863}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.20096985618174745, "t": 1.8091854638572282}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": -0.14928937066703898, "t": -8.717707662166868}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.004567955431199124, "t": 0.30502816946504163}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.19765975374957157, "t": -4.578865791191475}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.11676654544864164, "t": -3.9123244881711883}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.006950380923465182, "t": 0.1244384805832084}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.06799211078850508, "t": -1.3279037592257483}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": -0.028539855804739278, "t": -0.8241749962289372}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.04796610254051797, "t": 1.5817677690166527}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": -0.006574094033756962, "t": -0.19581107746342186}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.10284423337898782, "t": 5.690667894356559}]}, "identified": ["rsp", "fxe", "mtum", "xle", "tlt", "dflvx"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2015-to-2026 the fit explains 56% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.56). The statistically identified tilt stack: clear short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (\u03b2 -0.25, t -8); clear tilt toward energy (\u03b2 +0.09, t +7); clear tilt away from long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 -0.08, t -6); clear tilt toward US small caps (\u03b2 +0.12, t +6); clear underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.18, t -5); clear low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.25, t +5); modest momentum tilt (preference for recent winners) (\u03b2 +0.09, t +4); modest an emerging-market tilt (\u03b2 +0.05, t +3); modest short-yen position that carries the USD/JPY rate differential (\u03b2 -0.07, t -3); modest tilt away from utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (\u03b2 -0.08, t -2); modest dividend-appreciation tilt (growing payers) (\u03b2 +0.18, t +2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest equal-weight (small-tilted) exposure (\u03b2 +0.20, t +2) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is +0.6%/year (t +0.2) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "eagmx": {"meta": {"sym": "eagmx", "name": "Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Fund", "group": "shortlist", "order": 22, "verdict": "alpha in 5y window, but not persistent (lucky stretch?)", "objective": "The Fund's investment objective is total return."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+38.9%", "cagr": "+5.1%", "mdd": "-9.3%", "r2_5y": "0.07", "alpha_5y": "+2.6% (t=+2.4)"}, "narrative": ["EAGMX is the Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Fund. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment objective is total return. In the return-driver analysis it sits in the 'cash (net posn) +0.87' cluster with 90 other funds.", "Since 1997 it has compounded at +5.1% per year (a +324% total return) with +3% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 9%. Over the last five years it returned +38.9% versus +19.2% for its reference and +124.4% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +11.1%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year). Across the defined market episodes it did best in '2025 tariff crash' (+0.2%) and worst in '2022 bear mkt' (-5.1%) - the peak-to-trough windows when equities fell hardest. Its drawdown screen verdict: alpha in 5y window, but not persistent (lucky stretch?).", "The broad sleeve framework explains little of its excess returns (R\u00b2 = 0.07). No benchmark loading is even large. The bulk of the performance is therefore idiosyncratic: it comes from the fund's own holdings and decisions, which nothing in our 34-sleeve space replicates. The estimate of that idiosyncratic return is +2.6% per year over the last five years (t = 2.4) - statistically significant, so the outperformance is real; what the returns alone cannot tell us is its source. Over the full history the same estimate is +1.6% per year (t = 2.7). The stated strategy ('The Fund's investment objective is total return') is a plausible mechanism as well, but that is a hypothesis - the returns only tell us the outperformance exists, not why. The curated decomposition's read: not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions. Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.26 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.", "To be explicit about the limits: 93% of this fund's excess return is NOT attributed to any measured exposure by our analysis - we know the outperformance is real, we do not know from returns what produces it; the source has to be read from the filings before sizing up. The alpha is also not steady: in 56% of rolling six-month windows the fund trailed its reference, so the five-year number is carrying periods of underperformance.", "Account placement: IRA (the sleeve model says IRA). Within its cluster the strongest alternative is ENIAX (5y +31.6%, alpha t = +3.7); the choice between them should turn on the conviction in the strategy, the tax fit and the price paid, not on the statistics - they are the same kind of position. Its correlation with your current portfolio is +0.24 - a genuine diversifier."], "chart": {"dates": ["1997-10-31", "1997-11-07", "1997-11-14", "1997-11-21", "1997-12-01", "1997-12-08", "1997-12-15", "1997-12-22", "1997-12-30", "1998-01-07", "1998-01-14", "1998-01-22", "1998-01-29", "1998-02-05", "1998-02-12", "1998-02-20", "1998-02-27", "1998-03-06", "1998-03-13", "1998-03-20", "1998-03-27", "1998-04-03", "1998-04-13", "1998-04-20", "1998-04-27", "1998-05-04", "1998-05-11", "1998-05-18", "1998-05-26", "1998-06-02", "1998-06-09", "1998-06-16", "1998-06-23", "1998-06-30", "1998-07-08", "1998-07-15", "1998-07-22", "1998-07-29", "1998-08-05", "1998-08-12", "1998-08-19", "1998-08-26", "1998-09-02", "1998-09-10", "1998-09-17", "1998-09-24", "1998-10-01", "1998-10-08", "1998-10-15", "1998-10-22", "1998-10-29", "1998-11-05", "1998-11-12", "1998-11-19", "1998-11-27", "1998-12-04", "1998-12-11", "1998-12-18", "1998-12-28", "1999-01-05", "1999-01-12", "1999-01-20", "1999-01-27", "1999-02-03", "1999-02-10", "1999-02-18", "1999-02-25", "1999-03-04", "1999-03-11", "1999-03-18", "1999-03-25", "1999-04-01", "1999-04-09", "1999-04-16", "1999-04-23", "1999-04-30", "1999-05-07", "1999-05-14", "1999-05-21", "1999-05-28", "1999-06-07", "1999-06-14", "1999-06-21", "1999-06-28", "1999-07-06", "1999-07-13", "1999-07-20", "1999-07-27", "1999-08-03", "1999-08-10", "1999-08-17", "1999-08-24", "1999-08-31", "1999-09-08", "1999-09-15", "1999-09-22", "1999-09-29", "1999-10-06", "1999-10-13", "1999-10-20", "1999-10-27", "1999-11-03", "1999-11-10", "1999-11-17", "1999-11-24", "1999-12-02", "1999-12-09", "1999-12-16", "1999-12-23", "1999-12-31", "2000-01-07", "2000-01-14", "2000-01-24", "2000-01-31", "2000-02-07", "2000-02-14", "2000-02-22", "2000-02-29", "2000-03-07", "2000-03-14", "2000-03-21", "2000-03-28", "2000-04-04", "2000-04-11", "2000-04-18", "2000-04-26", "2000-05-03", "2000-05-10", "2000-05-17", "2000-05-24", "2000-06-01", "2000-06-08", "2000-06-15", "2000-06-22", "2000-06-29", 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"-5.7%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-0.3%", "+1.3%", "-9.9%", "-1.6%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-0.7%", "+0.3%", "-8.4%", "-1.0%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "+0.2%", "+0.6%", "-18.8%", "-0.4%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-0.1%", "+0.6%", "-8.9%", "-0.7%"], ["2021", "+1.7%", "-0.1%", "+30.6%", "+1.8%"], ["2022", "-1.0%", "+1.4%", "-18.6%", "-2.4%"], ["2023", "+7.1%", "+4.9%", "+26.9%", "+2.2%"], ["2024", "+8.6%", "+5.2%", "+25.7%", "+3.4%"], ["2025", "+12.0%", "+4.1%", "+18.1%", "+7.9%"], ["2026", "+5.9%", "+2.3%", "+12.7%", "+3.6%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, last 5 years:** R\u00b2 = 0.07, alpha = +2.6% (t = +2.4)", "**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = 0.16, alpha = +1.6% (t = +2.7).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `hyg` -0.03, `vweax` +0.03, `vwo` +0.02, `vblix` +0.02, `efa` +0.01, `ief` -0.01 - net cash +0.99.", "**Decomposition verdict:** not a static sleeve mix \u2014 returns driven by active decisions", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.26 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Global macro (sovereign-centric): nothing explains returns in the full or 5y window (R\u00b2 \u2264 0.05) \u2014 textbook macro, positions are tactical and asset-agnostic. The whole story is +5.1%/yr (t=8.0) over a flat benchmark.*", "**Screen verdict:** alpha in 5y window, but not persistent (lucky stretch?)"], "reference": {"rows": [["VWO +0.03", "Emerging-market equity", "EM corporate profits + EM currency + China/FX flows; high-vol, high-carry, dollar-sensitive"], ["IEF -0.07", "7-10 year Treasuries (core duration)", "the core rate bet: price moves when the Fed path changes"], ["QQQ -0.02", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"], ["VWEAX +0.10", "High-yield corporate bonds", "credit spread cycle: HY junk yields, default risk in recessions, strong carry in stable times"]], "weak": true, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.04 \u2192 ~96% net cash", "text": "**Weak fit - read with care.** These loadings are each individually significant but collectively explain little; the performance table anchors to cash, not this mix."}, "tax": "Character score 0.1 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Recommended account: **IRA**. _unclassified: Other 69%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves; absolute-return: character varies - check 1099_", "peers": {"cluster": "cash (net posn) +0.87", "n": 91, "rows": [["EAGMX (this fund)", "+38.9%", "+5.1%", "-9.3%", "0.07", "+2.6% (t=+2.4)", "IRA"], ["ENIAX", "+31.6%", "+1.9%", "-30.6%", "0.14", "+1.7% (t=+3.7)", "IRA"], ["QMNIX", "+164.2%", "+7.5%", "-38.8%", "0.27", "+12.3% (t=+3.6)", "n/a"], ["SCFZX", "+37.0%", "+4.7%", "-17.2%", "0.34", "+2.2% (t=+3.5)", "IRA"], ["EGRIX", "+59.7%", "+5.6%", "-14.2%", "0.07", "+5.2% (t=+3.2)", "MIXED (check 1099)"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 125pp."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 3293, "start": "2013-07-19", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.11482115005324933, "alpha_ann": 0.021156373230651206, "alpha_t": 3.198565501027631, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.03059450110197482, "t": 4.837993975830981}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.013901738712835348, "t": 3.511370909686767}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.006663669363282912, "t": 0.7560782474262339}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.04407018669387089, "t": 1.5700452430099665}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.0017301880065832655, "t": -0.31285799978432033}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": 0.00214078285724446, "t": 0.12408095256727504}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.020758031301050917, "t": -1.5874440924535076}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.022912949794554313, "t": -2.513556187110444}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.04320277020073844, "t": -3.1738754083360057}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.0032802626832677947, "t": 0.6140465082892433}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.006877409615966886, "t": -0.5299946206055378}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.014859081978160922, "t": 0.6890318965163655}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": -0.023746965751716125, "t": -7.057607729155281}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.0024611390753539034, "t": 0.8036698237682861}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.05317899428681735, "t": -7.667584979506734}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.0017208267354590055, "t": 0.2930321045042027}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.0009616658860530534, "t": -0.11216058865434617}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.00672252260007726, "t": -0.8693218237310067}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.009130213724600931, "t": 1.3642060659750763}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.0044630444305277, "t": 0.8318507231429305}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.008244475075901626, "t": 1.275292978748718}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": -0.0006881099862648824, "t": -0.21660911992739115}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.07828920206696599, "alpha_ann": 0.023484873664406887, "alpha_t": 2.188178303497252, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.015613191222574818, "t": 1.5083043166299757}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": 0.026860592813844144, "t": 4.026270325482952}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.020527171803104965, "t": 1.5673113810496104}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.08655649554714473, "t": 1.7918585825717486}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.012408946773941722, "t": -1.476874538147224}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.007652056546554771, "t": -0.27291977366425424}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": -0.05622784360174892, "t": -2.9941144413301717}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": -0.03592514595470942, "t": -1.1427100870866658}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": -0.04798022077604367, "t": -2.242603056621469}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": -0.0013614547375789814, "t": -0.18856882162146524}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.021304910022235547, "t": -1.0837511985574757}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.002676672951527768, "t": 0.0825655157681375}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": -0.017683219586820016, "t": -3.538229295375986}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.003636608335318805, "t": 0.8320814502075473}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": -0.0028299947576415426, "t": -0.22463453004594028}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": 0.009103875049596739, "t": 1.0451868681970027}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": 0.02501275567187228, "t": 1.5344715939725526}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": -0.025288506718136122, "t": -1.6923199785220313}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.014906312794958103, "t": 1.4749901171132083}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.007536024503514487, "t": 0.8515336451635119}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.01991619287105413, "t": 2.03263260945363}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.0026723389993074864, "t": 0.5066710208621108}]}, "identified": ["efa", "fxe", "vym", "tlt", "gld"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2013-to-2026 the fit explains 11% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.11). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 3% of international developed equities (t +5); clear short-euro position that carries the USD/EUR interest-rate differential (\u03b2 -0.05, t -8); clear tilt away from long-duration Treasuries (\u03b2 -0.02, t -7); modest an emerging-market tilt (\u03b2 +0.01, t +4); modest anti-quality tilt - systematically underweight high-ROE, low-debt names; the mechanical flip side of a high-payout dividend mandate (\u03b2 -0.04, t -3); modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.02, t -3).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest underweight to low-volatility names (\u03b2 -0.06, t -3); modest tilt toward banks/financials (\u03b2 +0.02, t +2) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, a significant residual of +2.1%/year (t +3.2) remains - genuine alpha on top of the factor stack.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}, "lcorx": {"meta": {"sym": "lcorx", "name": "Leuthold Core Investment Retail", "group": "shortlist", "order": 23, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund seeks capital appreciation and income (or total return )."}, "stats": {"t5y": "\u2014", "cagr": "\u2014", "mdd": "\u2014", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["LCORX is the Leuthold Core Investment Retail. Stated strategy: The Fund seeks capital appreciation and income (or total return ).", "There is no local return history for this share class yet (new class), so performance and drivers cannot be measured from returns. The N-PORT shows what it holds: NEW share classes (trading since Jul 2026) \u2014 no return history to regress. Holdings (Dec 2025 N-PORT): 91.7% ETFs + 8.4% money market; the strategy is Leuthold core multi-asset via ETFs. Re-run the decomposition after a year of NAV accumulates."], "chart": {"dates": [], "fund": [], "ref_dates": ["2007-05-30", "2007-06-05", "2007-06-11", "2007-06-15", "2007-06-21", "2007-06-27", "2007-07-03", "2007-07-10", "2007-07-16", "2007-07-20", "2007-07-26", "2007-08-01", "2007-08-07", "2007-08-13", "2007-08-17", "2007-08-23", "2007-08-29", "2007-09-05", "2007-09-11", "2007-09-17", "2007-09-21", "2007-09-27", "2007-10-03", "2007-10-09", "2007-10-15", "2007-10-19", "2007-10-25", "2007-10-31", "2007-11-06", "2007-11-12", "2007-11-16", "2007-11-23", "2007-11-29", "2007-12-05", "2007-12-11", "2007-12-17", "2007-12-21", "2007-12-28", "2008-01-04", "2008-01-10", "2008-01-16", "2008-01-23", "2008-01-29", "2008-02-04", "2008-02-08", "2008-02-14", "2008-02-21", "2008-02-27", "2008-03-04", "2008-03-10", "2008-03-14", "2008-03-20", "2008-03-27", "2008-04-02", "2008-04-08", "2008-04-14", "2008-04-18", "2008-04-24", "2008-04-30", "2008-05-06", "2008-05-12", "2008-05-16", "2008-05-22", 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"2010-08-30", "2010-09-03", "2010-09-10", "2010-09-16", "2010-09-22", "2010-09-28", "2010-10-04", "2010-10-08", "2010-10-14", "2010-10-20", "2010-10-26", "2010-11-01", "2010-11-05", "2010-11-11", "2010-11-17", "2010-11-23", "2010-11-30", "2010-12-06", "2010-12-10", "2010-12-16", "2010-12-22", "2010-12-29", "2011-01-04", "2011-01-10", "2011-01-14", "2011-01-21", "2011-01-27", "2011-02-02", "2011-02-08", "2011-02-14", "2011-02-18", "2011-02-25", "2011-03-03", "2011-03-09", "2011-03-15", "2011-03-21", "2011-03-25", "2011-03-31", "2011-04-06", "2011-04-12", "2011-04-18", "2011-04-25", "2011-04-29", "2011-05-05", "2011-05-11", "2011-05-17", "2011-05-23", "2011-05-27", "2011-06-03", "2011-06-09", "2011-06-15", "2011-06-21", "2011-06-27", "2011-07-01", "2011-07-08", "2011-07-14", "2011-07-20", "2011-07-26", "2011-08-01", "2011-08-05", "2011-08-11", "2011-08-17", "2011-08-23", "2011-08-29", "2011-09-02", "2011-09-09", "2011-09-15", "2011-09-21", "2011-09-27", "2011-10-03", "2011-10-07", 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Holdings (Dec 2025 N-PORT): 91.7% ETFs + 8.4% money market; the strategy is Leuthold core multi-asset via ETFs. Re-run the decomposition after a year of NAV accumulates.*"], "reference": {"rows": [], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.00 \u2192 ~100% net cash", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 1.0 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account. _wrapper: 91.7% Leuthold Core ETF (US equity) + 8% money market; unclassified: Fund holdings 100%; 100% pass-through/unclassified - character is the underlying funds'_", "peers": {}, "style": null}, "lamhx": {"meta": {"sym": "lamhx", "name": "Lord Abbett Dividend Growth R6", "group": "shortlist", "order": 24, "verdict": "", "objective": "The Fund's investment objective is to seek current income and capital appreciation."}, "stats": {"t5y": "+103.9%", "cagr": "+13.0%", "mdd": "-33.5%", "r2_5y": "\u2014", "alpha_5y": "\u2014"}, "narrative": ["LAMHX is the Lord Abbett Dividend Growth R6. Stated strategy: The Fund's investment objective is to seek current income and capital appreciation. Its return-driver signature is closest to the 'no dominant driver (balanced/idio)' cluster.", "Since 2015 it has compounded at +13.0% per year (a +290% total return) with +17% annualized volatility and a maximum drawdown of 33%. Over the last five years it returned +103.9% versus +110.8% for its reference and +123.7% for the S&P 500. The last twelve months have done +16.7%. It was positive in 6 of the last 8 calendar years (including the partial current year).", "The fit is strong: 95% of its excess returns over the last five years are explained by its measured exposures - exposure to the tech sector index, a small tilt to core us equity market, a small tilt to banks/insurance: rate + credit cycle. In other words, most of what this fund does is charge you for those exposures in the form of a fund; what is left - an alpha of -1.4% per year (t = -1.0) - is statistically indistinguishable from zero, i.e. the strategy is not clearly adding anything on top of the mix it owns. The curated decomposition's read: static sleeve mix (weights stable, ~fully explained). Weight stability: the one-year rolling betas move by at most 0.44 (relative to the full-sample weights) - so the weights are roughly stable over time.", "To be explicit about the limits: the excess return is not measurable against noise at the current sample size, so there is not even a reliable alpha to attribute; 5% of the return is outside our sleeve model either way.", "Account placement: taxable (the sleeve model says TAXABLE)."], "chart": {"dates": ["2015-06-30", "2015-07-02", "2015-07-07", "2015-07-09", "2015-07-13", "2015-07-15", "2015-07-17", "2015-07-21", "2015-07-23", "2015-07-27", "2015-07-29", "2015-07-31", "2015-08-04", "2015-08-06", "2015-08-10", "2015-08-12", "2015-08-14", "2015-08-18", "2015-08-20", "2015-08-24", "2015-08-26", "2015-08-28", "2015-09-01", "2015-09-03", "2015-09-08", "2015-09-10", "2015-09-14", "2015-09-16", "2015-09-18", "2015-09-22", "2015-09-24", "2015-09-28", "2015-09-30", "2015-10-02", "2015-10-06", "2015-10-08", "2015-10-12", "2015-10-14", 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735.8075277000132, 770.714519693762, 773.2166610879026, 768.7958176385309, 769.6264093624704, 777.9814600277924, 782.463108384158, 784.6925310762523, 775.0650240738165, 786.7532233211904, 776.1572799883932, 782.6432386193211, 774.3443627584163, 779.6704218270236, 770.7185962217277, 753.2539760920974, 746.204477374851, 731.6175305238098, 743.9803742064752, 770.6929619814466, 805.3990946915524, 809.8249135200988, 817.4232344841527, 836.5714255698672, 838.2424227975112, 845.7955555452916, 860.337383235379, 838.4794183902876, 856.229333214513, 834.4826119610877, 847.784251393242, 847.9766813996756, 858.5387683809412, 850.0936175043507, 829.9317305525731, 875.485589083083, 878.6893223359228, 874.7837210031054]}, "perf": [["Full history", "+290.1%", "+262.7%", "+345.1%", "+27.4%"], ["Last 5y", "+103.9%", "+110.8%", "+123.7%", "-6.9%"], ["Last 1y", "+16.7%", "+18.2%", "+20.7%", "-1.5%"], ["2022 bear mkt", "-21.3%", "-20.7%", "-24.5%", "-0.6%"], ["2023 rate shock", "-8.6%", "-9.5%", "-9.9%", "+0.9%"], ["2024 vol spike", "-6.5%", "-7.0%", "-8.4%", "+0.5%"], ["2025 tariff crash", "-16.5%", "-16.8%", "-18.8%", "+0.3%"], ["2026 Q1 drawdown", "-5.6%", "-7.7%", "-8.9%", "+2.1%"], ["2021", "+28.1%", "+29.0%", "+30.6%", "-0.9%"], ["2022", "-12.8%", "-13.5%", "-18.6%", "+0.7%"], ["2023", "+17.1%", "+18.8%", "+26.9%", "-1.6%"], ["2024", "+23.2%", "+23.6%", "+25.7%", "-0.4%"], ["2025", "+16.7%", "+16.3%", "+18.1%", "+0.4%"], ["2026", "+9.1%", "+10.8%", "+12.4%", "-1.8%"]], "drivers": ["**Reference model, full history:** R\u00b2 = \u2014, alpha = -0.7% (t = -0.5).", "**Return-driver signature (34 sleeves):** `xlk` +0.17, `ivv` +0.14, `xlf` +0.12, `vtv` +0.09, `xlv` +0.09, `qqq` +0.08 - net cash +0.06.", "**Decomposition verdict:** static sleeve mix (weights stable, ~fully explained)", "Weight stability: max 1y \u03b2-drift = 0.44 (0 = perfectly stable, >1 = unstable).", "*Dividend growth: R\u00b2 0.95; S&P 500 + value/mid tilt (ivv +0.62, ive +0.26, ijk +0.20, iwm \u22120.14 over 5y), stable weights. Closest to a passive fund with an overlay on this list.*"], "reference": {"rows": [["IVV +1.20", "US large blend (S&P 500)", "core US equity market; the default 'own the economy' exposure"], ["QQQ -0.26", "US large growth (Nasdaq-100)", "growth/tech-heavy US equities; high sensitivity to earnings surprises and long-end rates (duration of growth cash flows)"]], "weak": false, "netcash": "loadings sum to 0.95 \u2192 ~5% net cash", "text": "The reference is the fund's own fitted sleeve mix; 'alpha' everywhere means outperformance vs this mix, in excess of the T-bill rate."}, "tax": "Character score 0.92 (from the return-sleeve mix (model)). Keep in the **taxable** account. _unclassified: Other 100%; holdings mostly unclassified - used return sleeves_", "peers": {"cluster": "no dominant driver (balanced/idio)", "n": 337, "rows": [["LAMHX (this fund)", "+103.9%", "+13.0%", "-33.5%", "\u2014", "\u2014", "TAXABLE"], ["SEHAX", "+139.4%", "+15.1%", "-34.9%", "0.97", "+2.7% (t=+2.2)", "n/a"], ["CAIBX", "+73.4%", "+9.0%", "-43.2%", "0.92", "+1.9% (t=+1.6)", "n/a"], ["QAACX", "+147.4%", "+11.3%", "-63.0%", "0.96", "+2.4% (t=+1.6)", "n/a"], ["DESSX", "+139.3%", "+10.5%", "-58.2%", "0.98", "+1.5% (t=+1.4)", "n/a"]], "proscons": "**Disadvantages vs peers:** 5y return trails the best peer by 43pp; meaningfully more volatile than the calmest peer."}, "style": {"full": {"n": 2802, "start": "2015-07-01", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.9636284169138042, "alpha_ann": -0.0020807913292856324, "alpha_t": -0.21658467110130325, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.02063774918835548, "t": 2.27025144480088}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": -0.01599426463182011, "t": -2.748288806461785}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.13147211011777576, "t": 10.242799116734615}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.08977413255858144, "t": 2.2470424638492195}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.02443484911927523, "t": -3.1013982883496394}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.01605757959343042, "t": -0.661594182805831}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.15603136193811548, "t": 8.613922426990905}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.03118665789818843, "t": 2.5023847039708866}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.28278686997548746, "t": 13.969926548294776}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.05624914632536002, "t": 7.558098128408846}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.10770285370295091, "t": -5.851169021914794}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.32977180918218696, "t": 10.815965364950204}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.0017271161445097697, "t": 0.359185188002921}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.005159044247467291, "t": 1.152847653557787}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.021134501594253223, "t": 2.0323851233742385}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.022199636699664932, "t": -2.6418506846925234}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.0017321502381837939, "t": -0.14232416189915642}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.04434998499330405, "t": 4.010418800898316}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.02958909728083864, "t": 3.1704828751507548}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": -0.013706609462998842, "t": -1.77870055233571}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.00013375055022705334, "t": 0.01473648809859154}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.006029341858700382, "t": 1.3496172417543935}]}, "rec5": {"n": 1415, "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2026-08-21", "r2": 0.9584324793999734, "alpha_ann": -0.00798302084329042, "alpha_t": -0.6026751286898974, "factors": [{"name": "int-dev (EFA)", "sym": "efa", "beta": 0.015933566164251678, "t": 1.247187674191038}, {"name": "EM (VWO)", "sym": "vwo", "beta": -0.023059199164180644, "t": -2.800612894816472}, {"name": "growth (VUG)", "sym": "vug", "beta": 0.15230788168563109, "t": 9.422585237958272}, {"name": "value (VTV)", "sym": "vtv", "beta": 0.15053325669997225, "t": 2.524980629852348}, {"name": "small (IWM)", "sym": "iwm", "beta": -0.03289702597181159, "t": -3.172391999358919}, {"name": "equalwt (RSP)", "sym": "rsp", "beta": -0.10901385920389844, "t": -3.1503591901322854}, {"name": "lowvol (USMV)", "sym": "usmv", "beta": 0.07150479446713244, "t": 3.085131338201947}, {"name": "lowvol (DFLVX)", "sym": "dflvx", "beta": 0.06102577512327861, "t": 1.5727958370635007}, {"name": "quality (QUAL)", "sym": "qual", "beta": 0.3232229773695417, "t": 12.24091609306708}, {"name": "momentum (MTUM)", "sym": "mtum", "beta": 0.05358132137301866, "t": 6.013144301187917}, {"name": "dividend (HDV)", "sym": "hdv", "beta": -0.15859962885269915, "t": -6.536926169303691}, {"name": "div-apprec (VYM)", "sym": "vym", "beta": 0.3121935442217794, "t": 7.802770490838636}, {"name": "longdur (TLT)", "sym": "tlt", "beta": 0.003489144208860076, "t": 0.5656725185280261}, {"name": "gold (GLD)", "sym": "gld", "beta": 0.0039083358313723405, "t": 0.7245739422772369}, {"name": "EUR (FXE)", "sym": "fxe", "beta": 0.03634459533269018, "t": 2.337503386841717}, {"name": "JPY (FXY)", "sym": "fxy", "beta": -0.026205810773139677, "t": -2.4377366330150907}, {"name": "AUD (FXU)", "sym": "fxu", "beta": -0.015904396256491933, "t": -0.7905621665549946}, {"name": "utilities (XLU)", "sym": "xlu", "beta": 0.06175990874622475, "t": 3.34878656655737}, {"name": "staples (XLP)", "sym": "xlp", "beta": 0.030863914806274553, "t": 2.4745225651659233}, {"name": "health (XLV)", "sym": "xlv", "beta": 0.03371970058913623, "t": 3.087199866335513}, {"name": "banks (XLF)", "sym": "xlf", "beta": 0.033686801231798166, "t": 2.7856969334323325}, {"name": "energy (XLE)", "sym": "xle", "beta": 0.013250516881919097, "t": 2.0355832207119695}]}, "identified": ["qual", "vym", "mtum", "usmv", "vug", "xlu"], "commentary": ["Style-tilt analysis (22 style/asset sleeves regressed on the fund's excess returns; US funds proxying the global factors): over 2015-to-2026 the fit explains 96% of the excess return (R\u00b2 0.96). The statistically identified tilt stack: the core exposure is 2% of international developed equities (t +2); strong quality tilt (high-ROE, low-debt, stable earnings) (\u03b2 +0.28, t +14); strong dividend-appreciation tilt (growing payers) (\u03b2 +0.33, t +11); strong tilt toward US growth equities (\u03b2 +0.13, t +10); clear low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.16, t +9); clear momentum tilt (preference for recent winners) (\u03b2 +0.06, t +8); clear underweight to high-dividend names (\u03b2 -0.11, t -6); modest tilt toward utilities (defensive bond-proxy) (\u03b2 +0.04, t +4); modest tilt toward consumer staples (defensive) (\u03b2 +0.03, t +3); modest tilt away from US small caps (\u03b2 -0.02, t -3); modest developed-only tilt (away from emerging markets) (\u03b2 -0.02, t -3); modest short-yen position that carries the USD/JPY rate differential (\u03b2 -0.02, t -3); modest low-volatility (defensive beta) tilt (\u03b2 +0.03, t +3); modest tilt toward US value equities (\u03b2 +0.09, t +2); modest long-euro position (exposed to EUR moves) (\u03b2 +0.02, t +2).", "Visible only in the recent 5-year window: modest cap-weight concentration (tilt away from equal-weight/small) (\u03b2 -0.11, t -3); modest tilt toward healthcare (defensive) (\u03b2 +0.03, t +3); modest tilt toward banks/financials (\u03b2 +0.03, t +3); modest tilt toward energy (\u03b2 +0.01, t +2) - newer behavior, or a factor the longer sample dilutes.", "After stripping the identified tilts, the residual excess return is -0.2%/year (t -0.2) - NOT statistically significant: the fund's outperformance is factor exposure, not skill alpha.", "Caveat: the sleeves are US funds proxying global factors; the fund expresses them in its own holdings, so the betas are the right sign and magnitude but approximate. An index-matched benchmark (the fund's own published index, when one exists) would absorb part of the residual as well."]}}}}
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